All into Account

Fabio Bassi joins us to discuss ECB outlook and duration views. Idiosyncratic macro dynamic came to the forefront of rates markets this week with a notable outperformance of EUR rates in a bull steepening move, driven by weak Euro area flash PMI for September and selective inflation data in France and Spain. Higher conviction in the broad disinflation process in the Euro area and downside risk on growth triggered a change in our ECB call, now expecting the ECB to deliver back-to-back 25bp cuts starting in October, reaching 2% policy rate in June 2025, Risks are biased for even lower terminal even in absence of a recession. Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Cross Asset Strategy Fabio Bassi, Head of International Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4806192-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4802900-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy Rie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategy Junya Tanase, Chief Japan FX Strategist   This podcast was recorded on Sept 25, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4797455-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799897-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Daniel and Nelson join us to break down the differences between the European and US High Yield and Leveraged Loan markets, aka comparing apples and oranges. We do a thorough comparison of the asset class universes in terms of ratings and industry composition, and how this has played out in terms of spreads and returns.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy Daniel Lamy, Head of Europe Credit Strategy Nelson Jantzen, Head of US High Yield and Leveraged Loan Strategy   This podcast was recorded on September 12, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4779883-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jason Hunter discusses bearish Sep-Oct equity seasonality, critical chart support for the semiconductor group, and the potential that the spring-summer price action marks a large top pattern on the heels of the 2022-2024 bull market. He also highlights the 2s/5s yield curve longer-term base pattern breakout and the prospects for a steepening trend acceleration.   Speakers:  Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy   This podcast was recorded on September 10, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4791254-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4789122-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Featured in this podcast is Rajiv Batra. The Indian Equity Market has remained resilient in the face of volatility in global markets. As such, we discuss how the Indian markets are positioned and what are the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. This podcast was recorded on Aug 29, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4763283-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4760727-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4725824-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jason Hunter discusses the sharp July trends across fixed income, currency, equity, and commodity markets. While they look more technical and position-driven at the moment, the late-cycle signals coming from cross-market relationships and lower-frequency pattern development suggests the summer shifts can mark the start of something more durable.   Speakers: Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4742587-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4753546-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4734633-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4745567-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4745703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy SPW, an equal-weighted S&P500 index, has stalled since March, and is behind SPX so far this year by more than 10%. We think this is reflecting a changing Growth-Policy narrative vs early 2024. Entering this year, investor expectations were for a Goldilocks outcome – growth acceleration and at the same time quick Fed easing, starting already in March. The early Fed cuts and the consequent improving credit impulse didn’t materialize, which should weigh on growth in 2H. US activity momentum is slowing, with CESI outright negative at present, putting EPS growth projections of as much as 15% acceleration between Q1 and Q4 of this year at risk. Instead of easing preemptively for market-friendly reasons, such as falling inflation, as was the view at the start of the year, the Fed could end up easing, but reactively, in a response to weakening growth. At the same time, there is no safety net any more, the market is positioned long, Vix is at lows, potentially underpricing risks and credit spreads are extremely tight – this is as good as it gets. Adding to the picture strengthening USD and elevated political uncertainty currently, we arrive at a problematic setup for the equity market during summer. In terms of positioning, we have entered this year again OW Growth vs Value style and Large vs Small caps, and we are keeping these for 2H in the US, not expecting much broadening. The recent relative dip due to French political uncertainty is likely to become a buying opportunity as we move through 2H, but we think the risk of further drawdowns is not finished, as the potential new French government will likely try to test the limits of what they can do. This podcast was recorded on 30 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-GPS-4735603-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy After meaningfully lagging the US in 2nd half of last year, Eurozone equities showed some relative stabilization in Q1/Q2, before breaking lower most recently on a spike in French political uncertainty. We have closed the UW on Eurozone vs the US in Q1, driven by the improving Growth - Policy tradeoff in the region, but we believed that it was too early to expect Eurozone to move to an OW vs the US. Now, should one use the current dip to go long? On the positive side, Eurozone CESI is significantly above US one. At the same time, ECB has started easing, while Fed could stay higher for longer, and Eurozone valuations relative to the US are as cheap currently as at the extremes of TMT sell-off, GFC and Euro peripheral crises. Having said that, Eurozone equities are not showing oversold extremes. In fact, on equal weighted basis, Eurozone stocks were trading above US in Q2, and that is still the case, even fully taking into account the French driven weakness. The key will be any improving visibility with respect to the political backdrop. Here, we do not see the current French risks as a game changer for the region. The institutional setup is much more robust than during initial Euro crises. While the snap elections offer increased near term risks, they might be reducing longer term ones, and French government bond spreads to Germany are up 30bp, only higher during 2011 extremes. Now, we do fear that proverbially things might need to “get worse in order to get better”. The chances are that a potential new French government will likely try to test the boundaries of what they can do. Financial markets might end up needing to push back against the more aggressive fiscal easing.  Given this, the risk of further drawdowns will likely not be elevated only between the two rounds of voting and in the immediate aftermath, but also for a while post elections. Overall, we think that, as we move through 2H, there is likely to be a good entry point to buy Eurozone, to go OW vs the US, but for now we stay on the sidelines given the elevated risk of further drawdowns and no capitulation visible. We keep our Defensive sector tilt, and stylewise, we keep OW Growth vs Value stance, believing that it will continue to build on 14% ytd performance in the US and 7% in Europe.   This podcast was recorded on 24 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4728003-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Raphael joins us to provide an overview of the French political developments and their potential impact on the economy. Aditya provides an update of his scenarios for European rates markets and how to position for duration, as we consider whether this situation is idiosyncratic to France or broadening to other Euro sovereign spreads. Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Raphael Brun-Aguerre, European Economist  Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist This podcast was recorded on 21 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4730678-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4730510-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725293-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy In contrast to Q1, when key bond proxy Defensive sectors – Utilities, Real Estate and Staples – were the three worst performers, Q2 has brought a change. QTD, these three sectors are in line in Europe, making a positive swing in performance of 10%. The worst performers so far this quarter are Autos, Travel & Leisure, Chemicals, Luxury and Construction Materials – all Cyclicals. Will this shift last? We believe it will, on further repricing of a range of tail risks, and reiterate our barbell of OW Defensives and Commodities. First, many Cyclical sectors, with some notable exceptions such as Chemicals, Commodities and Logistics, strongly outperformed Defensives last year, when PMIs were falling, so why should they now outperform again? Also, the valuations of Cyclicals, which were cheap at end 2022, have moved to the expensive side of fair value. Second, activity momentum is picking up in manufacturing and in Europe/China, the laggards from last year, but crucially US growth momentum is likely slowing into year-end. As US CESI has turned negative, Defensives could have the upper hand. Finally, bond yields are likely to be flat or move lower into year-end; we reiterate our call from last October that US 10-year yield has likely peaked at 5%. Now, in terms of styles, this should keep helping our OW on Growth vs Value, but should also support bond proxies. Looking at Defensive sectors, Healthcare as an index was up this year in Q1, and in Q2 it worked even ex NOVOB. We think this broadening should continue. Utilities see a pickup in CO2 and in gas prices, in addition to supportive EPS momentum. Staples do not have many fans, but are markedly cheaper currently than in 2022. On the negative side, we remain cautious on Consumer Discretionary – in particular on Autos and on Luxury; we are still UW Chemicals, even as we acknowledge that they already had a terrible 2023, and are again strongly behind ytd, by 1000bp in Europe; and we think that Banks are likely to keep rolling over.   This podcast was recorded on 17 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4724125-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.