All into Account

All Into Account: The State of US Housing: Market Dynamics and Policy Shifts

Jul 14, 2025
In this discussion, Anthony Paolone, Co-Head of REITs & Real Estate Services Equity Research at J.P. Morgan, shares his insights on the unexpectedly strong U.S. housing market amid rising interest rates. He delves into the impacts of tariffs and immigration policies on construction costs and builder profits. The conversation also covers the hurdles faced by homebuilders and the nuanced recovery in commercial real estate, while examining the driving forces behind the frozen housing market and the future implications of GSE privatization.
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INSIGHT

Mortgage Rates Freeze Market

  • Low mortgage rates lock many homeowners into existing mortgages, limiting sales and contributing to a frozen housing market.
  • This creates regional disparities, with some areas having tight supply and others abundant housing.
INSIGHT

Builders Face Flat Demand, Supply Rise

  • Housing starts and existing sales are expected to remain flat due to rising supply and constrained demand from affordability and mortgage rates.
  • Elevated new home inventory contradicts the perception of a tight housing supply.
INSIGHT

Commercial Real Estate Stabilizes

  • Commercial real estate has stabilized with steady cash flow growth but values have declined due to rising cap rates.
  • The market sees renewed sales activity as prices adjust, signaling recovery from recent stress.
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