Fabio Bassi joins us to discuss ECB outlook and duration views. Idiosyncratic macro dynamic came to the forefront of rates markets this week with a notable outperformance of EUR rates in a bull steepening move, driven by weak Euro area flash PMI for September and selective inflation data in France and Spain. Higher conviction in the broad disinflation process in the Euro area and downside risk on growth triggered a change in our ECB call, now expecting the ECB to deliver back-to-back 25bp cuts starting in October, reaching 2% policy rate in June 2025, Risks are biased for even lower terminal even in absence of a recession.

Speakers:

Thomas Salopek, Head of Cross Asset Strategy
Fabio Bassi, Head of International Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4806192-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4802900-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.