The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In what was a relatively quieter week for property market data, Nick and Kelvin spend a bit of time discussing the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data and some of the resulting media coverage.It also gave Kelvin an opportunity to check out the new experimental series from Stats NZ regarding Code of Compliance Certificates (CCC) being issued around the country. This, on top of the latest building consent figures and ANZ consumer confidence release leads the way to further consideration of the vulnerable development and construction industry - we think further tough times lay ahead.In this week's oneroof article Kelvin floated the idea of the market following the shape of a bathtub - so that's a new one for your property market lexicon.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!No surprises what dominates the conversation this week - the OCR. And not the rate itself but the forecast track from the RBNZ.How high, how soon, how much did it change compared to the last MPS and what does it likely mean for the property market, all covered off in the show this week.It's a chunky chat, with references to reports from the NZ Bankers Association and Centrix and then a wrap up of other data releases from the last week, including April lending data, consumer confidence and filled jobs data.Nick also shares a couple of points from the CoreLogic AU research team's write-up following the Australian Election result as well as consideration of some analysis regarding shrinking household sizes  as a result of lockdown fatigue. Kelvin's oneroof article is live and keep a look out for the latest CoreLogic HPI results for May, out on Wednesday.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In an absolute bumper episode Nick and Kelvin first cover off the just released CoreLogic Pain & Gain report, providing further proof of the changing market but also a reminder of where we're at in the broader historical context of the market.Then the Government Budget announced last week did actually have something in it for first home buyers, but otherwise was of interest due to potential flow through to greater inflation.After briefly covering the latest DTI data from RBNZ and the NZ Activity Index showing a slowing economy, Nick then praises the work of regular listener Adam who got in touch recently regarding his early read of the weak Auckland market. Plenty of lessons from Adam's experience and advice - thanks again for getting in touch!Kelvin's "Did you know" article covers off some less understood or reported facts and this week we'll be keenly awaiting the MPS from the RBNZ, including their review of the OCR - 100% guaranteed to lift by 0.5% ;) Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The latest 6-monthly CoreLogic first home buyers report clearly illustrated the recent struggles for first home buyers as credit availability and affordability pressures impacted their activity. Of course the report goes into greater detail, as do Nick and Kelvin in their resulting discussion.REINZ figures for April are also a hot topic, particularly due to the stark index result that Wellington City is now -14.2% down from its October peak.Kelvin also provides his take on the latest Westpac Economics team release on construction and the housing shortage, while net migration figures for April provide an opening to a broader economic discussion and April rental data has Nick reiterating comments made about landlord pressures for a oneroof article.This week, keep a look out for RBNZ's latest debt-to-income reporting and insights from their new survey, while Kelvin's written a 'did you know?' post, busting a few myths that are currently circulating and as he says in his regular '5 things to know' the 2022 Government Budget is likely to be relatively uneventful for housing. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Last week's release of the April CoreLogic House Price Index provided the strongest evidence yet, if it was needed, that the market has swung to the negative with some areas seeing the largest drops in value since the Global Financial Crisis. This, and the release of the Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Report, leads to discussion on the vulnerabilities of the market, including our labour market, but expectations remain for a controlled downturn. But as Kelvin points out in his weekly oneroof article, the mood of the market, which is an important factor on future trajectory, can be difficult to quantify or measure. The latest building consent figures rounds up the week that was, before a look ahead to the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, March net migration numbers, rental figures for April and the REINZ release for April (remember to ignore change in median sales price statistics!)Nick's interview on the impact of the latest sea level rise research is up on Newshub.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Once again the Reserve Bank has kept us on our toes with a number of releases in the last week. On top of lending data for March showing a continued contraction of high LVR lending (but a bounce in total lending from Feb) we also got the much awaited response to the debt-to-income (DTI) consultation feedback.The RBNZ summary essentially kicked any introduction of DTI restrictions (and debt serviceability rate floor) down the road but still provided useful insight into their read on the market.Meanwhile there was some interesting research published about the "Bank of Mum & Dad" and we're looking ahead to the RBNZ's release of the Financial Stability Report, out on Wednesday.Elsewhere there's filled jobs data to review in anticipation of official labour market stats for Q1 out this week, and confidence data remains weak, with cost pressures and expectations a key concern.Lastly a quick chat about the latest Government investment into building and development in Auckland pretty much rounds out every topic when it comes to the property market!And of course mention of Kelvin's regular oneroof article, and the upcoming CoreLogic HPI for April.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!There's a lot to cover in Nick's first day back from holiday, with inflation data the key topic. Firstly the CPI results for Q1 released by Stats NZ, but also the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) measuring the cost of building a new house.A couple of articles piqued the guys' interest in the last week too. Stuff's reporting of Centrix data looking into the tenure of loans was a fresh piece of info, while interest.co.nz provided great insight into serviceability interest rates. And there was also further planning changes, notably for Auckland released last week which will no doubt cause plenty of debate in the market about appropriate intensification of housing stock.Other macroeconomic data released last week includes the NZ Activity index measuring the health of the economy, while this week there's plenty to look out for regarding jobs, confidence and mortgage lending figures.Keep a look out for the comprehensive review of the property market and economic data for Q1, out this week, while the monthly video is already live and Kelvin's regular oneroof article is where it always is :)  Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Fresh after Easter – including Nick’s time away celebrating his birthday and a family holiday in the Sounds – the key topic for discussion this week is obviously the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise the official cash rate by 0.5% rather than the standard 0.25%. It’ll keep the upwards pressure on mortgage rates, but future rises may be smaller than we’ve seen recently.Related to that strand of discussion, this week’s episode also covers off a Herald story which covered an OIA request around the possible level of ‘serviceability stress’ that might be faced by recent first home buyers as mortgage rates rise. It’s possible that about 49% of people who purchased for the first time in the past year could be under strain if typical mortgage rates reach 6%, but the lads also question if the assertion that it could be ‘tens of thousands’ in trouble is quite accurate.In a busy data week, this episode also cover off recent figures on rents (surprisingly strong), migration (still weak), and of course the latest REINZ data – which showed further declines for sales volumes and their house price index.This coming week the headlines will be hogged by Thursday’s (21st) CPI release – which will be discussed on the pod next week. Inflation is expected to be a bit of a shocker at >7%, but few will be surprised.And as per usual, our weekly top 5 article is now up on the Oneroof site.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Nick is back on deck after household COVID isolation and there's lots of data and other information to review. A look back at the CoreLogic House Price Index release for March brings up a conversation around how the market performed in the last major downturn, following the Global Financial Crisis, as well as the statement that we may well reflect on Q1 this year as the tightest credit will get (for this cycle).There's also CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for March, which shows a further drop in first home buyer activity (which Kelvin spoke about on the AM Early Show) and a quick overview of the confirmed changes to CCCFA, as announced by MBIE last week.But the meaty part of the pod is dedicated to a discussion on the recently released report "The decline of housing supply in New Zealand: Why it happened and how to reverse it" from the  Infrastructure commission.Releases to look out for this week include the RBNZ reviewing the Official Cash Rate, rental data for March, and migration figures for February. Plus, Kelvin's "5 things to know" is live on oneroof.Lastly, thanks to Thomas Gilbert for his question on the sizes of homes being consented for at the moment.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Nick starts this week by removing the elephant in the room – he has COVID! Tough weekend, but just maybe there’s light at the end of the tunnel.The guys then launch into a discussion of February’s filled jobs numbers from Stats NZ, which showed the first monthly fall (-0.3%) since January last year. This could be ominous for the unemployment rate and hence the property market, especially since the latest business and consumer confidence surveys from ANZ have remained so weak.The counter-point to this however is some better data from Xero, suggesting that small businesses are perhaps not feeling quite as pessimistic.Other key data discussed includes the latest dwelling consent figures (spoiler alert: very strong again), and a look ahead to the CoreLogic House Price Index for March, and the Buyer Classification figures at the end of the week.With a short appearance on Have You Been Paying Attention, we’ve also broken into the mainstream!Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com