The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for July leads the discussion today and flows through to the consideration of negative equity for some recent buyers, particularly in the Wellington region.The availability and cost of lending remains central factors to watch, so recent announcements of further changes to CCCFA, stronger mortgage rate competition and the opportunity of more high-LVR loans provide intrigue on where the market is heading.A surprising (minor) lift in the unemployment rate caused a bit of overreaction in the market but shouldn't be fully dismissed and are we truly, finally seeing signs of a reduction in consents for new builds?Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!First up this week is a correction from last week's show, where reference to the 'home ownership' portion of the Stats NZ CPI measure was incorrectly defined as including rents, rates and other costs. There's been confusion in the naming conventions and definitions but after contact from a keen listener, Kelvin provides an overview of the whole situation.Elsewhere in the property data world, the guys talk RBNZ lending data and the prospect of lending regulations changing later this year, as well as economic data releases for filled jobs and both business and consumer confidence.Of course, the comprehensive Quarterly Property Market and Economic Report is now live, the stuff article regarding climate change and it's (lack of) impact to property prices is here, and the article regarding the potential of negative equity is here.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Last week, A stronger than expected CPI figure led to some economists changing their forecasts for the OCR, however Kelvin ponders whether it was necessary. He also delves into some of the detail behind the strong inflation result and of course considers whats next. Has inflation peaked?A similar question is asked regarding constructions costs, off the back of the latest CoreLogic Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCCI). The state of the construction industry remains a hot topic, which last week included an increase in the KiwiBuild price to caps, intended to deliver more houses in the programme.And in Kelvin's broader market overview he reviews the latest NZAC result for June and looks ahead to filled jobs data, confidence survey results and June lending figures.On Wednesday look out for an update to the comprehensive Quarterly Property Market and Economic Report.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The RBNZ's decision to lift the OCR by another 0.5%, to 2.5%, was entirely expected, however there's still a lot to discuss in terms of the implications and future of mortgage interest rates.Meanwhile the REINZ data release for June prompted an in depth look into sales volumes, which really have fallen away dramatically. Plus, anyone looking for signs of the downturn moderating would have been bitterly disappointed to see the REINZ HPI showing no signs of it.From an economic perspective, Kelvin wraps up the latest Stats NZ releases, covering both their rental index and net migration figures.Keep an eye on the CoreLogic NZ Youtube channel for this months (numbers heavy) video, as well as the latest release of the Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCC!).Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Kelvin is out of isolation and there is plenty of data, particularly from CoreLogic, to chew over. Firstly the House Price Index data for June was released last week, further illustrating the embedded downturn we're in. Nick's release pondered where to from here, noting interest rates, including the official cash rate (OCR) which is being reviewed by the RBNZ this week, as a key determining factor.The other data update was the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for June, showing further (expected) falls in activity, but relative strength from both first home buyers and multiple property owners. For the rest of the week Kelvin has his eyes on Stats NZ for both migration data and their rental index - both are likely to paint a tougher picture for landlords.The full recording of the Climate Finance Panel from last week is available now, and for a great written overview Newsroom were in attendance too. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Plenty of data and other releases to cover this week, starting with RBNZ lending data for May. Most interestingly there was a lift in low deposit lending, but Kelvin also picks up on the reduction of interest-only lending as worthy of attention. Full article available too.The RBNZ's Chief Economist Paul Conway also delivered a speech last week, which Nick and Kelvin briefly discuss, however it has served as more of a reaffirmation of the broader state of the market than anything particularly new.A Covid-battling Kelvin then runs through all the economic data releases from the week - Filled jobs (look good), building consents (holding up, but we're weary of them) and business and consumer confidence (pretty bad). Nick then references the latest from Trade Me's release of their rental data showing the first signs of potential weakness in that market - not good news for landlords.You can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Infometrics' release of their new report "Housing update: A new lens on affordability" dominates the discussion this week, as it brings to the fore the consideration of assessing all payments over the lifetime of a mortgage rather than simply the price paid when bought. The key headline was that it's now the worst time to be a first home buyer in NZ since 1957, and based on the quality of the report it's hard to argue the point. Nick and Kelvin do however, dig into a little bit of the detail of why that is the case and whether it'll once and for all put the generational argument of who had it tougher, to bed!Kelvin also provides an overview of the latest release of the Mapping the Market interactive suburb report and covers off the latest NZAC data (and why doesn't it get the coverage it deserves!?).Lastly this week, here are the links as mentioned:BusinessDesk article on the impact of the City Rail Link stations on property values.Real Estate BreakfastWellington Auckland Kelvin's oneroof articleCheck out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!A number of relevant economic and property market releases lead to a wide-ranging discussion on the state of the NZ economy and the future of the property market (without interest rates dominating!).GDP figures for Q1 showed a contracting economy, to most people's surprise, while the REINZ sales volumes and HPI reaffirmed the market weakness - with the nationwide index now 6% below the peak in November 2021.Meanwhile the rental index figure illustrates slowing growth for rents but still well above the long term average, but can it continue? Along with considering that question Kelvin and Nick also analyse the latest migration stats - what they're showing, but does it matter?Kelvin's article analysing the May Buyer Classification data is up on the website, while the monthly video is also live.Don't forget to register for the Climate Change Panel, hosted by Bernard Hickey (and listen to last week's podcast) and if you work for the Government, register for this week's online market update presentation too.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special edition guest podcast, Nick interviews Ivan Diaz-Rainey, from the Univerity of Otago.Ivan also holds a number of roles but the two of most interest for today are Director of the Climate & Energy Finance Group and Project Lead for the STRAND Marsden Fund Project. The discussion essentially forms a preview of the upcoming online panel event, which Ivan is a member of "Addressing climate change, financial stability & property", to be hosted by Bernard Hickey on the 7th of July at 12:30pm. The event is open to anyone with an interest - register here.Nick and Ivan discuss a number of things to do with the climate and it's increasing inluence on our financial system all around the world. What is Climate Finance? How does NZ compare to the rest of the world when it comes to regulation and policy development? And how are both mitigating and adapting to the real impacts of climate change? And what is transition risk? All this is covered in the podcast as well as a bit of detail on the STRAND Marsden Project (proudly supported by CoreLogic) which as well as evaluating different models for understanding the potential impacts of flooding, looked into the South Dunedin floods of 2015 and the influence they had on property prices both short and long term.Overall, NZ is making good progress in the Climate Finance space but there's also plenty left to do. Listen in to the podcast to hear more and make sure you register for the panel event on 7 July.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In amongst some wild weather over the weekend, credit conditions and interest rates are back as a key discussion point again this week, given the soon-to-begin relaxation of the CCCFA rules, but on the other hand the start of Quantitative Tightening from the Reserve Bank. Even though the RBNZ envisages QT being a smooth/managed process, Nick and Kelvin discuss how there’s surely some kind of risk that it adds to upwards pressure on mortgage rates.Buyer Classification for May is also covered off, and the theme of ‘debt vs equity’ is still evident, with cash multiple property owners having a higher market share in recent months – albeit due to their number of purchases falling less than other groups, rather than an outright increase in activity.As per usual the guys look ahead to upcoming data this week – including the Q1 GDP data – but also take on a broader discussion of the investment landscape at present (Kelvin's write up). With capital gains fading, yields low, and mortgage rates higher, it’s possible that would-be new investors are looking very hard at their sums. Of course, for existing investors with much higher effective yields, the game is a bit different – and some (all?) will want to avoid Brightline too!Kelvin's 5 things to know article is live, as is his analysis of the history of the top end of the market. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com