The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Making up for a few quieter weeks of data releases, this week the show is jam packed of official data releases as well as a few other pieces of news which piqued Nick and Kelvin's interest.Reserve Bank lending data for August leads the discussion, followed by filled jobs, confidence data and dwelling consent figures.A look ahead to this week sees the CoreLogic HPI out on Wednesday morning, the OCR review happening that afternoon and the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for September will be available on Friday, setting up an interesting show for next week.Elsewhere, there's been coverage of ghost houses on Stuff, whether it's better to rent or buy on The Spinoff and Nick ponders the announcement by The Opportunities Party (TOP) about their proposed tax changes, including a 0.75% land value tax.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After yet another quiet week for data releases Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to better discuss the report released last month by the Housing Technical Working Group (MHUD, Treasury, RBNZ) assessing the NZ housing system. Two recent podcasts at 'On the Tiles' and 'When the Facts Change' recently interviewed lead author Dominic Stephens (Chief Economist at Treasury) which lead to a number of great talking points to dissect. The three key drivers of house price growth are pretty clear - land availability, interest rates and a favourable tax system, but how are those things changing and is the change going to be enough to disturb the long-run trend of affordability continuing to worsen?A quick look ahead for the week rounds out the show this week, with a number of key data releases to look out for, from RBNZ, Stats NZ and ANZ.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Making up for a quieter week prior, last week had a few of the more higher profile data releases. First up the GDP figures for Q2 were released by Stats NZ, with the main headlining being that we avoided a recession, but as Kelvin regularly points out does it really matter if confidence and sentiment is so low it felt like a recession anyway? And what now for inflation and the OCR?REINZ also released their sales volumes and index for August, with continued weakness the main theme. Broad weakness also typified the latest release of the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data analysing the median value and 3 month change by suburb across the country.Elsewhere we also got the latest migration figures from Stats NZ, as well as their rental index release showing further reduced demand and pressure on rental prices.Next week's podcast will be recorded and released on Tuesday 27 September due to the public on holiday on Monday 26 September.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!It was a quieter week of data releases last week with just the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for August and Kelvin's article on the cost to trade up to discuss. Stats NZ's release of migration data just prior to recording is also mentioned, however otherwise it's a look ahead to a busier week of data coming out, including REINZ HPI and sales volumes, the Stats NZ rental index and more importantly the official release of the Q2 GDP figures and the more timely NZAC for August. The big question of course being did we dip into a technical recession or not, though as Kelvin regularly points out, does it matter, if it felt like a recession anyway?Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Corelogic House Price Index showed the downward trend in property values gather steam in August but after providing a bit more detail of the results, Nick also mentions the early signs of some light at the end of the tunnel.The foundation of the NZ labour market appears to remain as solid as ever too, with Kelvin reporting filled jobs increased again in July and business confidence looks to be rising from the doldrums too.Building consents have (finally) shown signs of tailing off, and while it's still minor, Kelvin thinks it's time to call the turning point, though with the pipeline full and the recent government announcement to support commitments in the sector, a GFC-type bust phase isn't expected.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In another special addition podcast, Nick is joined by Mark Harris, Managing Director of Sotheby's International Realty NZ, to discuss all things Queenstown. As can often be the case, the Queenstown property market is currently marching to it's own beat and with the borders now open, optimism for the area is high.Mark started Sotheby's in NZ almost 20 years ago and has extensive experience in the mid-high range property market, both in Queenstown and around the country.Listen in to hear about Mark's take on the current market, thoughts on the foreign buyer ban, connection to international markets and expectations for the future.Catch all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Kelvin opens discussion with a summary of his trip to Rotorua to be on a panel at the Master Builders conference. Challenging but not dire would probably sum up the vibe and expectations of where things are headed.At the same conference, Housing Minister Megan Woods announced the "Build Ready Development Pathway" designed to support the industry, in particular for stalled construction. This should provide confidence and certainty to the sector, which could otherwise be lacking.Elsewhere we released some timely new climate risk analysis (in conjunction with global reinsurer Munich RE), illustrating the current and growing cost of river floods in NZ - something which needs to be acted upon sooner rather than later.In what was a busy media week, Kelvin fronted the latest update to the 6-monthly housing affordability report, showing some measures have improved but others haven't.All that, plus RBNZ mortgage data, consumer confidence survey results and underwhelming retail spend figures.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!No surprises for guessing what the topic of interest is this week - the RBNZ's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). Yes, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increased by another 0.5% to now be 3%, but of more interest to our data loving friends are the forecasts within and what's actually said in the statement. Nick and Kelvin provide their review of the statement and expectations for the short-term future of the market. The latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q2 2022 and recent stories about negative equity also feed into this discussion.Then there's the BRANZ/MBIE report on the long term outlook for construction, the July NZ Activity Index (NZAC) and a new report from the Housing Technical Working Group acknowledging the big influences of property prices over the long term history to sink your teeth into.This week look out for a release on the potential ongoing impact of regular floods in NZ and the Q2 Housing Affordability Report.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, Nick and Kelvin lead the podcast with a discussion about whether first home buyers should wait to buy in a falling market. There are a number of factors to consider and not all of them financial - Kelvin teased all of the data out in his written article last week.Sticking to the theme of first home buyers, there's also the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for July to review as well as REINZ' regular release, Stats NZ's rental index and migration data too.Of course, it wouldn't really be a week in the property market without something to do with the lending environment so a review of the latest RBNZ debt-to-income (DTI) reporting flows into a preview of their Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) to be released on Wednesday and includes their review of the Official Cash Rate (OCR).And keep an eye out for a special edition podcast coming soon, looking at both the NZ and AU property markets - their similarities and differences.The Pain & Gain report for Q2 will also be available for download from first thing Tuesday morning.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In another special edition guest podcast, Nick and Kelvin welcome their Australian counterparts to have a discussion around some of the similarities and differences between the NZ and AU property markets.Tim Lawless, CoreLogic International Research Director, and Eliza Owen, Head of AU Research are hugely experienced and well respected market commentators on the Australian market and they offer great perspective at a time uncertainty in both countries remains high. Key topics of interest covered are the OCR, include recent history and speed of change/expectations for change, affordability - especially in the main/capital centres and the differing regulatory environment. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com