The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With no official macro economic data releases in the last week Nick and Kelvin take a look around for any other info and engagements worth reviewing. Migration data was hot off the press but otherwise there’s media coverage regarding mortgagee sales, reduced sales turnover at the suburb level and  Kelvins deeper look at recent investor activity.  Centrix also released their latest credit indicator report, illustrating a lift in loan arrears, while BusinessDesk analysed records around liquidations which show up  the constructor sector's lingering vulnerability.  Keep a look out for a number of different releases from CoreLogic this week, including the Best of the Best report, the final monthly video of the year and the last Market Update webinar for Government employees (being tag teamed by both Nick and Kelvin).Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The discussion kicks off this week on the topic of house prices, with the CoreLogic Index last week showing further falls. Sure, the drop was smaller than in recent months. But be careful of reaching the conclusion that the downturn might also be over. It probably isn’t, and the ultimate peak for mortgage rates could hold the key as to when property values find a floor.Indeed, the macro news last week also had a negative tone, such as filled jobs, dwelling consents, and business confidence. Weak hiring intentions could be a property market concern for next year, given the importance of the labour market to borrowers’ ability to keep servicing their debt.  In Kelvin's weekly article he delves into the situation with investors and those of different portfolio sizes.The guys also discuss some listener feedback, especially the idea that casually switching to interest-only if a borrower gets into trouble isn’t as easy as it might seem.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After the hotly anticipated Monetary Policy Statement was released last week Nick and Kelvin have a lot to discuss. From the OCR decision itself, to all the macro-economic forecasts and the language used in subsequent commentary - all with an eye to how the market is shaping up for 2023.We also got October lending figures last week, Centrix's credit review, consumer confidence results and Xero's Small Business Index to digest.Plus, the Government were busy too. Firstly they extended the dates for Healthy Homes Standards compliance, they also announced a 'Critical Materials Taskforce' to protect the construct industry and also launched their Change in Housing Affordability Indicators (CHAI) reporting/dashboard.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!While Nick and Kelvin keenly await the next RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, being released on Wednesday, they first take the time to look back a week full of releases.CoreLogic's Pain & Gain report for Q3, showing the proportion of owners selling at a loss has increased, but is still no where near the levels of previous downturn. REINZ latest release included what is likely a false dawn, as their HPI showed a minor increase in October, but sales volumes remain very weak.The CoreLogic Buyer Classifcation data for October illustrated the continued struggles of mortgaged multiple property owners amidst first home buyers still out and about, with the RBNZ DTI data showing one reason why.And Kelvin's round up of macro-economic data showed some encouraging signs in both the net migration figures and latest NZ Activity Index (measure of economic activity). Speaking of which, the Massey 'liveGDP' tracker is one to keep an eye on.Plus, there's also a bit of chat about the recently announced changes to the RMA - likely to have an impact on the property market, but only in the long term.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!A number of releases/announcements from the RBNZ once again dominate the discussion. We've got the reappointment of Governor Orr to discuss, along with their first 5-year review of monetary policy, the proposed framework for the introduction of Dti limits (not until 2024) and a paper analysing the effects of the FLP on funding costs and mortgage rates. Outside of RBNZ chat, Kelvin details the key insights from the release of our 6-monthly First Home Buyer Report, particularly that first home buyers are navigating the current market better than anyone else.Stats NZ also released their Rental Index for October and Auckland City Council's code of compliance certificates illustrates the building slowdown which hasn't been as evident from consenting figures. Plus, the guys chat about Williams Corporations announcement that they've offered voluntary redundancies to a number of their staff across the globe.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After a largely successful weekend of sports results, the dominant property issue for today’s episode is the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) – the chat may have a negative tone, but that’s the point. The FSR is all about looking at risk, and ‘plausible but severe’ scenarios which we might need to prepare for. Nick and Kelvin cover off various aspects of the FSR, including the overall conclusion that our financial system is pretty resilient, and that most households should ‘get by’, provided that unemployment stays relatively low. More detailed points include some climate change modelling, negative equity, non-bank lending, and the prospects for LVRs vs DTIs. Other data from last week included the continuation of low unemployment in Q3, and the resilience of new dwelling consents. Coming up, watch out for the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, Buyer Classification data, and the latest Stats NZ rental figures Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!A number of data releases from a range of locations, but it still all boils down to businesses - are they investing and hiring - and  consumers - are they still working, borrowing and spending?The answers are slightly mixed, with businesses not confident but still doing fine and consumers much the same, though the latest RBNZ lending data further reiterates they're not borrowing near as much as they were or could be.A number of links mentioned this week:BusinessDesk coverage of ANZ Business Outlook surveyXero data on small business healthBusinessDesk detail of ANZ customer reportingCoreLogic under insurance surveyAffordability compared to 1990 articleAuckland being a million dollar city article And lastly, thanks to Amelia for getting in touch.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!There are no surprises what forms the bulk of this week's podcast - inflation! With the latest CPI data out last week, and it coming as a shock to many, forecasts for the OCR, mortgage interest rates and house prices have been seriously revised. To kick things off Kelvin provides a 'review of the reviews', summarising the response to the inflation data and potential flow through to the housing market.Amongst a wide-ranging, exploratory discussion Nick also references Cameron Bagrie's 'challenge to the status quo' article on BusinessDesk, imploring action to address the inflation issues from the bottom up and well as the top down, and to find ways to increase the productivity of our economy. In other releases the comprehensive quarterly property market and economic report for Q3 was published last week with the key insulating factor of a strong labour market setting this downturn apart from the GFC, leading the commentary.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After a quick chat about the latest CoreLogic CCCI report on construction costs the focus quickly turns to the state of the market, following the latest REINZ monthly report detailing recent sales volumes and house value movements.Neither measures provide much positivity for the future, as sales remain slow and values continue to fall, however in slightly better news the recent net migration figures provide a few shards of light at the end of the tunnel. The rental index data from Stats NZ meanwhile looks a little off, but either way, reduced rental growth is adding the current challenges for property investors.The regular quarterly report will be available to download later this week, but prior to that, all eyes will be on the CPI release from Stats NZ - set for Tuesday 10:45am.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The RBNZ increased the OCR by the expected 50 basis points last week but along with it opined the option of going even harder with a 75 basis point lift. What makes the call even more intriguing was that the Reserve Bank over the ditch (RBA) dialled back their tightening with only a 25 basis point increase. Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential reasons for the different approaches, including consideration of the RBNZ making a mistake, though it seems it's a mistake they're willing to make considering the fallout may not be too dramatic (and potentially a better outcome than inflation continuing to run rampant).Meanwhile our House Price Index for September showed values continue to fall, the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series shows first home buyers remain active but investors not-so and a closer look at values by property type, courtesy of Stuff.co.nz.There's also a quick local election round up, with a view to what it could mean for the General Election next year and a special thanks to Pankaj for the feedback.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com