The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for February out last week, a question came up about why it differs to some other measures out there. This leads to a broader discussion some of the different stats out there and why the interpretation of them is important. This relates to other releases from the last week too, including the filled jobs data, business and consumer confidence results and even the affordability report released the week prior.Even the dwelling consents figures offer up a few words of warning, following some fresh listener insights. This week keep an eye out for the Women & Property report, and associated podcast, out Tuesday. Plus, Kelvin's on the road with Trade Me for their State of the Nation roadshow and be sure to dial into the International Women's Day webinar and the Government Market Update if you're a Government employee.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week it is all about the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), and included OCR decision from last week. Perhaps the most important viewpoint was their take on what their role will or should be in response to supporting the recovery from the devastating impact of Cyclone Gabrielle as well as the severe flooding in Auckland a few weeks prior.But as Nick and Kelvin discuss, the RBNZ quickly outlaid that both the timing and broader role of monetary policy dictated they 'look through' the impacts of the event for now, leaving that to fiscal and private support in the first instance. Outside of the MPS, the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report provides an excellent marker for future house price growth (or lack-of), while Kelvin remains very attentive to the latest NZ Activity Index (NZAC) for economic performance and the latest lending stats provide yet more evidence (not that it's needed) of how slow the market really is.Plenty to come this week too, including the CoreLogic House Price Index results for February, going public on Wednesday.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Firstly, our thoughts are with all those affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the damage it has caused. It is heart-breaking to see and hear about all the people affected by this event, the extent of which is still to be known.There is so much to ponder this week, as the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle poses yet another consideration for Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank of NZ) as they weigh up all the factors in deciding on the next move for the OCR. This week they'll release their full Monetary Policy Statement, which has Nick and Kelvin debating all the options, including holding the OCR at 4.25%.It was also a very heavy data release week with historically low sales volumes recorded by REINZ, falls in values continuing into 2023, rents experiencing a (potentially deceiving) bounce, net migration growing further and borrowers still constrained at a debt-to-income (DTI) level.The Pain & Gain report is now live, and keep a look out for the Housing Affordability Report, due for release by Wednesday.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!**Please note the original upload of this week's podcast was an older file. This has been updated but you may need to delete the original download and re-download this episode to get the proper version** With a little less data released last week, the focus for the podcast this week centres around the investor market. There's January's Buyer Classification data to first run through, showing first home buyers holding relatively strong, with Kelvin then delving a bit deeper to reveal we may be waiting a while for any investor comeback.With a lot of focus on the arrival of Cyclone Gabrielle, there's further discussion on the broader impacts to the property market as well as reference to some of CoreLogic's Climate Risk Solutions, available to support clients and property owners. Be sure to get in touch if you'd like to know more.Lastly, a look ahead paves the way for a busy week, with rental data, REINZ' HPI, RBNZ lending figures and migration stats all being released this week. Plus, check back for the official release of the 2022 Q4 Pain & Gain report.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Coming from a data-heavy week, including the all-important labour market statistics, most of the conversation this week leads to the likelihood of the RBNZ plumping for a 50 basis point lift to the OCR in two weeks' time (rather than the previously expected 75 basis point lift).As well as the increase in the unemployment rate, the CoreLogic HPI illustrated there's further to go in the property downturn, while consumer confidence remains very low (despite a jump in the past month).There's also the impacts of the Auckland floods to weigh up, though as is discussed it's not exactly straight forward as there will likely be added inflationary pressure, but it's also important to make funds available to those who need it (without too high an interest rate).Dwelling consent data was also released and for the first time in a long time the annual figure dropped below 50,000, though it's no reason to panic with the pipeline full. Once again, considerations will need to be made for the remedial work required in Auckland, which may see new consents nationwide drop at a faster pace than otherwise expected.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With Nick away on holiday in and around Queenstown this week, Kelvin takes the reins and is joined by a special guest, Tom Coad, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Platforms for NZ and Australia.We kick off the episode with a brief intro for Tom, and then Kelvin kicks into the data, which is in abundance this week – inflation may have peaked (but is still high), which will trigger another OCR increase on 22nd February. Whether it’s 0.75% or ‘only’ 0.5% will depend a lot on what happens with the official labour market figures this Wednesday.There have been some other concerning indicators lately too – a subdued NZAC for December, weak business confidence, and signs in the latest Centrix data that more households are beginning to struggle with the cost of living and higher mortgage rates.Looking ahead, it’s CoreLogic House Price Index data this week, alongside mortgage lending, foreign buyers, unemployment, dwelling consents, and consumer confidence.After all that, the discussion turns to bigger picture banking themes, where Tom highlights a couple of key issues – digitisation/lending speed and the role of brokers, both in NZ and across the ditch. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reaction in higher mortgage rates. But a sub-7% result could tip the tone of discussion towards an OCR increase on 22nd February of less than 0.75%, taking some heat out of mortgage rates. A big day beckons.Meanwhile, the REINZ data released last week remained very sluggish, with sales low and the house price index falling again. Queenstown’s 5.2% fall in values in December probably isn’t a genuine indication of broader trends in that market, but it also reinforces that nowhere is totally immune to the current housing pressures.Rents held steady in December, confirming that tenants are currently in the ascendency, but the sharp and surprisingly strong turnaround lately in net migration may be starting to give some landlords hope for better property demand and cashflow in 2023.Nick and Kelvin also cover off this week’s NZAC (weak again?), ANZ business confidence (also subdued?), as well as the so-called Healthy Homes alliance, and some recent negative equity stats for Wellington.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Apologies for the short audio cut-out at about 16 minutes. Please plough through it.After a busy start to 2023 last week in terms of writing and media appearances, we’re back for the second podcast of the year, and there’s plenty to cover – most notably the guys cover off Kelvin’s ‘opinion piece’ setting out why the loan to value ratio rules won’t be loosened this year. This wasn’t triggered by any ‘whispers’ that we’ve heard; just a good opportunity to put all our random musings into one place.The latest Cordell Construction Cost Index is also discussed, showing that the costs to build a new house rose at a record pace in 2022, but also that some respite could be on the way this year.Good news for first home buyers too – their % share of property purchases is hovering at record highs, with reduced competition from other buyers, and of course lower house prices, all working in their favour. To be fair, the number of deals has fallen. But a high market share is still a good result.The labour market also remains healthy, with filled jobs rising again in November. And this week we’re watching out for December’s REINZ figures (Wednesday), December’s Stats NZ rent data (Thursday), and November’s migration result (Friday).Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for December provides the perfect platform to close out 2022 as Nick and Kelvin discuss why the moderation in value falls is likely a false dawn. Kelvin also wraps up a few other data releases you may have missed over the holidays weeks, most notably and concerning, the weak confidence results.Plus beware of some of the headlines you may have read, there's a warning for reading too much into asking price or sales price measures and are Auckland buyers really that active outside of the Super City?Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!For the final episode of the year, where else could we start than with the just-completed FIFA World Cup Final. An early start for Nick and some disappointment for the French friends he was watching it with! But what a game it was.The guys then review recent data and preview what’s coming up for the final week of the year, including the ANZ business and consumer confidence surveys. The activity measures in these surveys could be pretty weak, but is there a chance that inflation expectations might soon be moderating?The discussion then switches to an overall review of 2022 and a look ahead to 2023. The past 12 months have certainly been a timely reminder that house prices can go down (sharply) as well as up, and that mortgage rates play a key role. The next year will probably contain more housing weakness, but some positivity may start to emerge later in 2023.Anybody wanting a more in-depth/alternative discussion of the 12 months ahead should check out Nick’s regular monthly video and the recording of a webinar the guys recently delivered to a Government audience.All the best for 2023 to all of our listeners.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com