The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Reserve Bank's latest Financial Stability Report again promoted the NZ Economy's resilience and with very early signs of the property market approaching a trough and the labour market remaining tight it's hard to argue against.The detail on jobseeker numbers and the difference to unemployment figures is available here:https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/covid-19/jswr-unemployment-report.pdfSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson discuss the state of the New Zealand economy, including the NZ Activity Index, inflation, and job statistics. They also discuss recent changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) rules and the upcoming financial stability report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The speakers touch on the possibility of tax reform, including a land value tax, but do not expect any major changes before the upcoming election.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Inflation dropped in Q1, which is great news for everybody. The guys run through the latest data, the risk of any suprises in the coming quarters, and of course what it means for the official cash rate and mortgage rates.They then quickly cover off the latest rent figures, before a discussion of the signs that this housing market downturn may be on its last legs (for better or worse, depending on your perspective). But there's also a long list of reasons why the end of the downturn won't suddenly give way to another upturn.There's finally the usual run-through of upcoming data, including the NZAC, business and consumer confidence, filled jobs, and mortgage lending.And they also manage to cover off a recent story about asking prices vs final selling prices: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131813174/property-owners-selling-for-395k-below-asking-price-on-average--corelogicSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With Nick away in Northland on a family holiday, Kelvin leads the discussion today, joined by Alan Gilbert, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Solutions.The discussion runs through construction costs, the active buyer groups in the market at present, as well as migration trends, and upcoming rental figures.The looming CPI release on Thursday 20th is also covered off, which is a really key release in terms of the next steps for the RBNZ’s OCR tightening cycle.Alan then steps in to talk us through some recent work CoreLogic did around Auckland’s floods (x2) and mapping the effects from satellite imagery.Check out the monthly video hereSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After the RBNZ surprised everyone by lifting the OCR by 50 basis points, Nick and Kelvin dig into their statement and reasoning for the call. Given their consistency in messaging, are they actually quite a good 'referee'?Plus, this week a detailed look into the latest CoreLogic House Price Index for March.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Amongst the usual review of weekly data and preview of the RBNZ OCR call this week, Nick and Kelvin also take a look at the RBNZ's latest paper on flooding exposure of the banking system. A couple of key insights extracted by Kelvin are:Property prices could fall 80 – 100% in the most extreme cases in NZ in the event of a large coastal flood – due at least in part to insurance withdrawal.25% of Auckland mortgages are vulnerable to a 1-in-100-year rain/surface flooding event.Tune into all that and more in this week’s NZ Property Podcast. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson have called it, saying it’s “fairly likely” we’ve entered a recession.Find out:How they came to this conclusion.What the Reserve Bank will likely say at next week’s OCR announcement. Plus, the central bank has engineered a recession. When might they dial back their OCR hikes? Tune into all that and more in this week’s NZ Property Podcast. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland flooding are likely to be a major drag on the country’s economy and may have plunged NZ into a recession earlier than expected. But is there a silver lining from this devastating event for our country’s shrinking economy?In this week’s NZ Property Podcast, Kelvin Davidson and Nick Goodall make a case for the downturn coming to an end sooner than expected including:An expected boost in spending from the cyclone rebuildA sharp turnaround in migration figuresPlus, first home buyers are taking a smaller share of the market. Is it out of choice or necessity?Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With a much quieter data week Nick and Kelvin find conversation in a range of topics, including the third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property report, Kelvin's anecdotes from a week on the road with the Trade Me Property team and the National Party's Build to Rent announcement.Hot off the press is the CoreLogic Mapping the Market report though, the interactive suburb map detailing the median value and change for almost 1,000 suburbs across the country.And keep a look out for the monthly video to be published later this week on the CoreLogic Youtube channel.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In a special edition podcast Nick and Kelvin are joined by Eliza Owen, Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia. Eliza is the author of the just-released third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property Report.Eliza takes Nick through the report - why does it exist, how is it done, and what does it tell us? Kelvin helps along the way with some NZ specific insight but the findings are relatively consistent across both countries and Eliza delves into some of the details and also some thinking as to why they may occur.Download your free version here from Tuesday 7 March 2023 and keep an eye out for plenty of coverage across all media channels.You can follow Eliza on LinkedIn.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com