The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Ever wondered how the unchanging official cash rate might influence not only the economy but also your personal life? Kelvin Davidson and I, Nick Goodall, get to the heart of the matter in our latest episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast. We kick things off with a lively discussion about the recent Reserve Bank OCR decision holding the OCR at 5.5%, highlighting its 'wait and see' approach and the tell-tale signs of a relaxing labour market due to net migration easing skill shortages.Excited to understand the potential risks of a slower rate of inflation? Well, strap in as we discuss how the constant OCR could impact inflation, financial markets, and your household expenses. We'll walk you through the ripple effect of the OCR rate stability on mortgage rates, using the jump from 2.8% to 5.1% as a case study for shaping the economic scene (David Cunningham on LinkedIn). As we move towards the final part of our episode, we'll be shedding light on the potential upswing in the property market. The trends in rental prices, the cost of living crisis, and the influence of migration on the market are all on the table for discussion. We'll also be scrutinising the most recent sales volumes and house price index data from REINZ. Is there a potential for a 'dead cat bounce'? Cordell Construction Cost Index for Q2Monthly video up Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This weeks episode is brimming with insights, as we untangle complexities and delve into the data from CoreLogic's House Price Index. The property market is behaving in mysterious ways, with a downward trend across the nation, but certain regions like Auckland experiencing a sharper decline.Ever wondered how the dynamics of the property market might impact first-time buyers, particularly in a time of flux? We'll walk you through the intricacies of identifying market troughs, and examine the factors leading to some homes performing better than others. With decreasing supply, increasing demand, and relaxing lending restrictions, we ponder the likelihood of the market hitting a stable floor soon. But make no mistake, the market is still a beast of unpredictability, facing affordability pressures and high mortgage rates.We also touch upon the effects of the election on the market, the financial dynamics between renting and owning a home, and the role of the Bank of Mum and Dad and KiwiSaver in assisting first-time buyers. Lastly, we'll also be looking ahead, discussing key releases such as Cordell Construction Cost Index, Stats New Zealand's migration data and rental prices, and the Real Estate Institute's house price index. So, grab your headphones and get ready for an enlightening journey into the New Zealand property market!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Does the state of New Zealand's property market keep you up at night? Well, it's time to sleep easy as we join Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson for a riveting discussion about the country's real estate landscape and economic outlook. We navigate the nuances of the New Zealand Activity Index for May, a vital indicator for GDP, and explore what it truly means for the second quarter. But don't break out the champagne just yet. Kelvin reminds us that the economic seascape can be precarious, and there's no assurance that we won't be navigating negative GDP figures in the following quarters.In the second act of our dialogue, we roll up our sleeves and get down and dirty with the latest economic data, from the pulse of business confidence to the intricacies of filled jobs. We dissect easing cost pressures, reducing pricing intentions, and a timid resurgence in consumer confidence. Even though the economy appears steady, we highlight potential challenges looming on the horizon. Lastly, we set our sights on lending trends around trade-up premiums. Armed with the latest lending data, we scrutinize the new loan-to-value ratio speed limit and the enduring high mortgage rates. As we wrap things up, we make sense of the housing market's challenges, the influence of an aging population, and the financial hurdles, especially when bridging finance is required. We invite you to plug in, listen up, and join us in this enlightening discussion about the economy's future. Let's make sense of the numbers together!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week we kick off by unravelling the latest data from CoreLogic's May 2021 chart pack. From the significance of the first annual increase in sales volumes to the importance of understanding the bigger picture behind the numbers, this episode is packed with valuable insights!We also delve into the drivers of the New Zealand property market and examine the recent increase in sales volumes, all while acknowledging that this growth is still low compared to long-term averages. Kelvin helps us comprehend the context beyond just the numbers, including the strength of the economy, current listing levels, and demand for property. We also discuss why we shouldn't necessarily expect a strong upturn anytime soon and how the market's growth is expected to be low and slow.Lastly, we shed light on the rental market in New Zealand, with a particular focus on the Otago region and Queenstown, where the flow of rental listings is running 15% below normal. Kelvin walks us through the supply and demand dynamics due to high net migration and the potential rent increases we could see as a result. Learn about the importance of keeping good tenants (and a good landlord!). Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Could the New Zealand property market be finally starting to turn a corner? Gain valuable insights on the latest trends and patterns as we discuss CoreLogic's mapping the market release for June 2023, and explore how 10% of suburbs saw an increase in value while the majority still experienced a decline.We also delve deep into the economic release of Q1, discussing why there is a delay in the GDP data (hence we closely track the New Zealand Activity Index), and how this affects the housing market. As we explore regional trends and performance, join us in analyzing the economic contraction and its impact on the property market, and what this could mean for buyers, sellers, and investors alike.Lastly, we'll take a close look at the potential for a slow recovery and rental growth in the market, considering factors such as population growth, the tight supply of rental listings, and the ability of tenants to pay. Tune in as we navigate the complexities of the New Zealand property market and provide valuable insights to help you make informed decisions.Monthly chart packMonthly videoSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Are you feeling the pinch of seasonal illnesses and the excitement of recent sporting events? We certainly are! But that won't stop us from giving you all the latest updates on the New Zealand property market. This week, we delve into trends across the market, from first home buyers making up around 25% of sales to the all-time low of mortgaged investors. We also notice some fascinating trends emerging in Auckland and other parts of the country.The real estate market listings are painting an interesting picture as well, with reduced supply leading to a decrease in total stock on the market. We zoom in on the Auckland data, where total stock is 15% lower than it was this time last year. Is the end of the downturn near? We also examine the effects of credit restrictions and high rates on demand and their potential impact on price growth in the coming months.Lastly, we turn our attention to the Reserve Bank numbers, exploring trends in new lending and mortgage rates. With 75% of new loans being taken out in the one to two-year fixed range, and mortgage rates stabilizing from last month, we discuss the significant changes since mid-2021 and the potential economic implications of these trends. So, come join us for an informative and engaging discussion of all things New Zealand property market in this episode!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick welcomes back Kelvin from holiday with a host of data, covering the latest CoreLogic House Price Index results, renewed business confidence and strong jobs data, as well as a review of the latest dwelling consents and building work in place figures.Plus, plenty of references to the state of the Australian market as home owning Kiwi look to the positive trend over there in anticipation of the same thing happening here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick is joined by Brad Olsen, CEO and Principal Economist at Infometrics. Nick and Brad delve deep on the Reserve Bank's latest monetary policy statement and official cash rate decision, including all the juicy forecasts within. Brad also shares his insights on the impact of migration and Government spending on inflation and the state of the New Zealand property market.Nick and Brad also discuss the potential impact of debt-to-income ratios on the housing market and the recent CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q1 resales. They remain cautiously optimistic about the market and encourage caution when taking short-term options such as mortgage holidays or interest-only terms. The episode ends with Brad sharing his upcoming travel plans and how they relate to the primary sector and the economy.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Following Westpac's big call (at the time) and then the Government budget last week there's plenty to talk about as Nick and Kelvin essentially preview the RBNZ's next Monetary Policy Statement coming out this Wednesday at 2pm.The RBNZ also released Q1 data for debt-to-income tracking. Meanwhile both the CoreLogic monthly chart pack for May and the first home buyer report for Q1 also went to market. Check out the latest monthly video on Youtube.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin use the latest CoreLogic First Home Buyer report and April's buyer classification data to focus on the key players in the market.For those first home buyers (or anyone really) who are credit approved there's no doubt this is a great market for them, with a shift down for the prices they're paying but a shift up (to houses) in the types of property they're buying. Meanwhile for other owner occupiers, they're either unable or unwilling to get out there in the current market, while mortgaged investors continue to do it tough. Rents are rising and inward migration is booming though, so perhaps there's more positivity on the horizon for them. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com