The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Plenty to get through this week, kicking off with the report which stemmed from some CoreLogic data, trying to replicate the foreign buyer tax estimates from the National Party's proposal. Michael Reddell's detailed blog, including a bit more detail on international experiences is here. Mapping the market was also updated, providing further evidence of the recovery in values (at a suburb level) so take a look to see what's happening in your area.Elsewhere first home buyers remain active, rental growth continues to increase and net migration is only going in one direction - up.Lastly this week, a thanks to Jason for getting in touch and proposing a couple of useful considerations for anyone wanting to come home from across the ditch. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In what was a quieter data week for the housing market Nick and Kelvin again cover off coverage of the tax policies announced by the National Party, following Kelvin's article assessing the potential impact of the changes.From a data perspective, Kelvin reviews the latest mortgage term origination data from the RBNZ - with borrowers slowly swinging back to shorter terms. A quick look at listings volumes shows the spring increase has begun but it's off a low base and with sales also picking up, overall stock levels remain relatively weak.Lastly this week, a look ahead sees a number of releases which will be of interest, including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, net migration data, rental prices and the REINZ monthly report for August.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin quickly run through the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which showed a modest fall at the national level, and patchy regional patterns - some areas up in August, some down. This patchiness may remain a feature in the coming months.  We then launch into a detailed discussion of how the housing market might look if National won the upcoming election - from a shorter Brightline period, to a softer foreign buyer ban, to interest deductibility, there's plenty to cover. Ultimately, house prices may receive a boost, but it might not be all that large - with mortgage rates still high.  Meanwhile, recent economic data, including filled jobs, the NZAC, and business/consumer confidence have all been encouraging.  And finally we finish with listener questions about DTIs - could National remove them from the Reserve Bank's toolkit? If imposed, would they actually do much? Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Today we sit down with the esteemed Steve McMenemy, director and mortgage advisor at Loan Market Auckland. As a veteran in the finance industry, Steve provides us with a deep-dive into the intricacies of the New Zealand property. We walk through the projected growth in the Massey area, and Steve unpacks the vulnerabilities and opportunities in the new build market. In light of the Unitary Plan, we also discuss its impact on the housing market and new build projects.Shifting gears, we delve into the current housing market and the psychology of first-time buyers. Steve shares valuable insights into the factors stoking increased demand and gives practical advice to those grappling with affordability in this fast-paced market. In the wake of recent changes in property investor borrowing, we dissect the implications of removing the ability to offset mortgage interest costs as a tax deduction, as well as the loosening of LVR restrictions.To wrap up our discussion, we turn our attention to the evolving trends in apartment living and reflect on the Reserve Bank's influence on the market. We also explore the role of debt-to-income ratio in bank policies and why more Kiwi are turning to brokers for their mortgage needs. Steve's unique insights and experiences provide a fascinating perspective on these topics, making this a must-listen episode for anyone interested in the New Zealand property market. So tune in and enjoy this comprehensive ride through the NZ property market!Contact Steve at:https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/steve-mcmenemy/https://www.instagram.com/steve.mcmenemy/ loanmarket.co.nz/steve-mcmenemy 021 743 494 Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Following the release of the CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report, Nick and Kelvin discuss the state and future of housing affordability, tackling the house price to income ratio, and discussing why, despite improvements, buying a home remains an expensive endeavor. As we navigate this intricate terrain, we ponder whether the simultaneous growth in income and house prices cancels out each other's effects, leaving affordability static.Then it's onto recent lending trends, as reported by the RBNZ, including the impact of changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions. There's a certain fascination as we dissect how first-home buyers are capitalising on low deposit loans and why investors with larger deposits are experiencing a surge in activity. Yet, we recognise the elephant in the room - the high-interest rates for larger loans and the limited individuals who can shoulder the extra debt for home ownership. In the second half of our discussion, we delve into banking trends and loan repricing dynamics. The implications of cashbacks, equity calculators, and loan-to-value ratio restrictions come under the microscope. Together, we assess the potential impact of recent economic data releases on GDP and ponder the influence of the Chinese economy on the global market. This episode is the perfect blend of deep insights and lighthearted conversation - a must-listen for anyone interested in the nuances of the New Zealand property market. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Number one on today's agenda is the Reserve Bank's monetary policy statement and the implications of the unchanged official cash rate. We break down the jargon and sift through layers of GDP, labour market, house prices, and inflation projections, leaving no stone unturned. We also reveal the potential for a rate rise and the nitty-gritty of the decision-making process. Moreover, we plunge headfirst into July's property market report, dissecting the role of first-home buyers, the 'wait and see' approach of investors, and the patchy nature of the market.Particular focus is given into the impact of deductibility on property investment and housing affordability with Kelvin working through an in-depth example. Additionally, we cast a spotlight on regional variations in house prices and their influence on affordability. Lastly we also preview the mortgage lending figures for July and the potential after-effects of the Reserve Bank's loosening of the LVRs on investors and first home buyers. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Firstly, our apologies for the late upload of this week's episode, we had some technical difficulties with the file. But, onto the episode...This week, Nick and Kelvin kick-off the pod with a look at CoreLogic's latest Pain & Gain report, including a bit of detail that is often missed in the usual media coverage. Switching gears, we’ll discuss the latest Buyer Classification trends and the shifting dynamics between stronger and weaker buyer groups. Get ready to unravel the implications of these changes using the Reserve Bank's June new lending origination data. Plus, discover how a shift towards longer loan terms might offer a much-needed security blanket for borrowers. We'll also shed light on the rising rental prices, driven by net migration and decreasing vacancy rates. And as a cherry on top, we'll wrap up with a closer look at the Reserve Bank's projections for the official cash rate (OCR). We’ll ponder the possible delay in the first OCR cut and the risks of non-tradable inflation. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Ever wondered why both employment and unemployment rates can rise at the same time? Or how high wage growth impacts inflation and the Official Cash Rate (OCR)? Join us, along with our guest, Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson, as we decipher the latest labour market data. Prepare for an enlightening discussion on the OCR's future and the pressures that could sway its course.Now, imagine if you could decode the perplexing world of the housing market. On this episode, we navigate through the House Price Index for July, provide insights into the current market situation, and foresee the potential of further market pain. From properties being resold at a loss to the increasing rental prices and lower vacancy rates, we ensure you're up-to-date with the latest trends. Buckle up as we journey through the intricacies of labour and housing market dynamics, equipping you with the knowledge that makes a difference.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Ever wondered how the easing of LVR rules has affected the investor landscape? We dig into this, discussing how this change has tipped the scales, encouraging investors to lean towards new builds. The conversation gets even more interesting as we scrutinise the loss of interest-deductibility and its sway on investor involvement. Delving further, we'll face head-on, the challenges and opportunities of investing in a market with low rental yields and interest rates. We discuss the large gap between rental yields and mortgage rates and the potential long-term impacts they might have on the retirement scene. Shifting gears, we'll delve deeper into the economic matters that impact the property market. We'll review the New Zealand Activity Index for June, and the forecasts from bank economists. With an unflinching look at the possibility of a looming double-dip recession, we'll discuss its potential implications on the official cash rate, housing market, and labour force. We promise insightful, nuanced, and engaging dialogue that will leave you more informed and equipped to make decisions in the property investment universe. So, join us for this enriching and enlightening conversation.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Number one on the running order this week is the recently released 6% annual inflation rate. Engage with us as we dissect this figure, the important non-tradable inflation rate and its implications on the official cash rate.Intrigued by the official cash rate and how it impacts your spending habits? Then this podcast is a must-listen. Brace yourself as we delve into a possible economic scenario where inflation remains high, pushing us towards a new recession. We'll be discussing the various factors that could influence this economic trajectory, such as the lagged effects of the current monetary policy and the number of folks who are yet to reprice their mortgages. Our podcast episode doesn't stop at just inflation and cash rates. We transport you to the heart of the real estate market, analyzing current trends and highlighting the potential challenges and opportunities. We'll put under the microscope the low listing volumes, the increasing evidence of floor prices, and the rising investor selling in Australia. Come aboard as we discuss the current listings running at multi-year lows, the annual increase in sales, and what the future looks like for the New Zealand property market. All these and more, as we explore the intricate world of economics and real estate.Free download of the latest CoreLogic monthly chart packSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com