S3.E14 Latest OCR hike may have made Easter eggs taste a little bitter

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Fresh after Easter – including Nick’s time away celebrating his birthday and a family holiday in the Sounds – the key topic for discussion this week is obviously the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise the official cash rate by 0.5% rather than the standard 0.25%. It’ll keep the upwards pressure on mortgage rates, but future rises may be smaller than we’ve seen recently.

Related to that strand of discussion, this week’s episode also covers off a Herald story which covered an OIA request around the possible level of ‘serviceability stress’ that might be faced by recent first home buyers as mortgage rates rise. It’s possible that about 49% of people who purchased for the first time in the past year could be under strain if typical mortgage rates reach 6%, but the lads also question if the assertion that it could be ‘tens of thousands’ in trouble is quite accurate.

In a busy data week, this episode also cover off recent figures on rents (surprisingly strong), migration (still weak), and of course the latest REINZ data – which showed further declines for sales volumes and their house price index.

This coming week the headlines will be hogged by Thursday’s (21st) CPI release – which will be discussed on the pod next week. Inflation is expected to be a bit of a shocker at >7%, but few will be surprised.

And as per usual, our weekly top 5 article is now up on the Oneroof site.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz 

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