The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Following the release of the Cotality NZ Home Value Index for November, this week Nick and Kelvin discuss the impact of Auckland's housing market on national home values, the regional variability in property markets, and the importance of building consents for housing supply. Courtesy of a few listener questions they then delve into interest rate predictions and the potential effects of flood risk on property values, emphasizing the need for accessible insurance information for homeowners, which feels like it's right around the corner. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin delve into the latest Pain and Gain report, discussing the current state of the property market, resale performance, and economic indicators.Thanks to a listener question they also explore the implications of unemployment as a lagging indicator and the complexities of migration data (and revisions of).Plus, Nick provides an overview of the Opes Partners Property Academy Podcast which he featured on last week - all about the detail of the Home Value Index (HVI)There's also discussion about the growing concerns around climate change and its impact on property values, following a recent article, which Kelvin featured in, on Stuff. The conversation wraps up with insights on the importance of understanding insurance costs in property transactions and the need for accurate flood mapping.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!As expected the RBNZ cut the OCR to 2.25% today, and also signalled that this may be the last cut in the cycle.In this reactionary episode of the podcast, Nick and Kelvin run through the reasons for the latest decision, and also what the RBNZ forecasts look like in 2026 and beyond - for GDP, employment, house prices, inflation, and the OCR itself.A house price upturn looks likely in 2026, but restraints such as DTI caps should mean it's modest rather than a fresh boom.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, following the publication of the latest Monthly Chart Pack, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in sales volumes, the implications of a proposed capital gains tax, and with the final MPS of the year this week, the outlook for monetary policy.  They explore how these factors influence the housing market and investor sentiment.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin delve into the latest insights from the first home buyer report, migration trends, and retail spending data. They discuss the resilience of first home buyers in the current market, the tentative signs of a turnaround in migration, and the cautious optimism surrounding retail spending. The conversation also touches on the importance of community engagement and the recent client dinner, highlighting the diverse range of clients and the connections made. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This special guest episode launches the latest joint research by Cotality and Westpac, looking at first home buyers.Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality, is joined by Westpac's Senior Economist, Satish Ranchhod to discuss the latest report, including the broader macroeconomic and interest rate environment.They then move into the detail of FHB activity, including % market share (by region and price bracket), types of properties bought, prices paid, LVRs, average age, and also a medium term outlook.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in mortgage lending, interest rates, and the labour market. They explore the rise in mortgage lending activity, the implications of interest-only lending, and the slight increase in the unemployment rate. The conversation also covers the recovery in building consents and the overall economic outlook, highlighting the importance of adapting to market demands in property development.For more info about the webinar in conjunction with NZGBC click here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With Nick away on holiday across the ditch, in this episode Kelvin Davidson is joined by Eliza Owen, Cotality's Head of Research for Australia.First Kelvin discusses the recent Cotality Home Value Index results for NZ, as well as a look ahead to this week's Financial Stability Report and key labour market figures for Q3 - both out on Wednesday.Then Kelvin and Eliza kick into a wide-ranging discussion about the similarities and differences between the markets on both sides of the Tasman, including sales, prices, listings, buyer activity, as well as the regulatory environment.Over the past few years, NZ's property values have remained weak, but Australia has climbed to new highs.All of this is also in the context of recent proposed changes to LVRs and the potential capital gains tax in NZ after the next election.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the announcement from the Labour party about a proposed Capital Gains Tax. The conversation delves into the implications of a new 28% tax on the net sale of residential and commercial properties which could take effect on July 1, 2027. It discusses the details surrounding the tax, including what types of properties are affected, the valuation process, and the potential revenue implications. Concerns are raised about the accuracy of projected tax revenue and how market behaviour may change as a result of this new tax.Nick and Kelvin also speak about a few of the often-missed details in the Cotality monthly chart part and wrap up last week's release of CPI inflation data for Q3.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on construction costs (CCCI report for Q3), government policies, net migration, rental market dynamics, Reserve Bank policies, and inflation. They explore the implications of these factors on the housing supply and the overall economy, providing insights into future trends and market sentiment.The monthly video summary is available on YoutubeSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com