The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, Nick chats to Paulette Trotter, director and advisor at Loan Market Auckland, who was the number 1 mortgage advisor in NZ in 2023.Paulette's experience in the industry is vast and hugely successful. In this discussion Paulette discusses how the property market has kicked off in 2024, with first home buyers remaining a consistent presence. She speaks about some of the differences across the Auckland market, including interest in new build properties and the relative importance of tax changes and interest rates to potential property investors. Nick and Paulette also discuss the roles and influence of both the new Government and the RBNZ, including the proposed debt-to-income limits and loosening of the loan to value ratio restrictions.Lastly, Paulette offers up a few keys to success for her and her team Loan Market and a few tidbits of advice for good measure too.Contact Paulette at:https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/paulette-trotterP: 021 820 473E: paulette.trotter@loanmarket.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The guys kick off this week’s discussion with a look at our house price index for January, which showed a smaller rise in values (0.4%) than in both November and December. With mortgage rates still pretty high, a mixture of weaker and stronger months for property values shouldn’t be a surprise. So then it’s just a choice of which adjective/synonym to use to describe patchiness!Two other notable items last week were Andrew Bayly’s announcement that the Government will be looking to loosen the CCCFA rules again over the next few months – adding to some impetus for the property market – but also Paul Conway’s (RBNZ Chief Economist) speech which poured cold water on the idea that the official cash rate might be cut soon.Elsewhere, mortgage lending activity continues to rise from a low base, consumer and business confidence are generally trending higher (but not consistently), while dwelling consents are still falling – and HUD was in the news for suggesting that the annual total, currently 37,000, could dip to around 32,000.Coming up this week – big labour market news (unemployment rate likely to be higher but due to more workers not job losses), mortgage lending by the term of the loan chosen, and CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures for January.All in all, plenty to discuss – oh, and the cricket at Bay Oval too.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!More heat across the country and plenty of data to talk about this week too, starting with the latest inflation figures for Q4 2023.The CPI/inflation trend is definitely in the right direction, but with domestic/non-tradable prices such as rents and council rates still a bit problematic, the OCR isn’t likely to be cut in the near term. But cuts are possibly on the cards for the second half of the year, with some falls in shorter term fixed mortgage rates also likely.With the dust settling on the RBNZ’s announcement about LVRs and DTIs, Nick and Kelvin also give a quick update this week, which reiterates that there could be a net boost to property activity around the middle of the year, but also that borrowers who are currently above the DTI limits shouldn’t panic – the rules aren’t retrospective.Plenty of other data to cover too – including last week’s December NZ Activity Index (ok-ish), and then this week’s filled jobs for December (Monday), mortgage lending for December (Monday), foreign buyers for Q4 (Tuesday), ANZ business confidence (Wed.) and consumer confidence (Fri.) for January, and new dwelling consents for December (Friday). All to be covered in detail next week!Also check out our latest Housing Chart Pack, highlighting the strong market share for first home buyers in 2023.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin kick off with a discussion of the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which went out in the same week as the REINZ and QV measures. The guys discuss the results from our index, as well as some of the similarities and differences between all the measures, some which were highlighted in a Stuff explainer article. Last week also saw Stats NZ release the latest migration and rent price data – which generally showed further strength (especially for rents), although there are some caveats to note with the latest migration result.Being recorded on Tuesday (rather than usual Monday, due to Wellington Anniversary), this also allowed the guys to comment ‘hot off the press’ on the Reserve Bank’s latest DTI and LVR consultation. In a nutshell, DTIs are still on track for the middle of the year, with LVRs set to be loosened a bit at the same time. Even more detail to come over the next week in written form and our next podcast.There’s also a preview of the upcoming NZ Activity Index, and of course the Q4 inflation figures – a very important release!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!We're back for 2024 and it's straight into a look back at data releases so far this year. Firstly the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q4 2023 showed cost inflation is moderating (not declining) and with building consent data for November to also discuss there's a bit of time given to preview the health and prospects for the construction industry.Jobs growth data from Stats NZ is also reviewed - still a key underpinning factor for the housing market, while the latest RBNZ release looks at the terms borrowers chose in November.Additionally December's Buyer Classification data shows first home buyers didn't take a break prior to Christmas picking up a close-to-record 27% of sales over the month.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In rounding out the year, there's coverage of the Best of the Best report, the upcoming chart pack and the now-live monthly video.Plus, amongst a number of data releases there were a couple of RBNZ papers to discuss. Topics covered today:MigrationRental price growthGDP economic data for Q3REINZ HPISales volumesLoan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) regulationsDebt-to-income (DTI) restrictionsPlus, Nick joined The Weekend Collective Radio Show on Saturday for their regular one our property focus on Newstalk ZB.Have a safe and relaxing summer break, see you back on Monday the 15th of January.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Call it what you will, this week it's all about money, and it's importance when it comes to the property market. Kicked off, due to Kelvin's article on the 10 things to know about mortgage debt right now, Nick and Kelvin detail how the cost and availability of credit truly make the property world go around. This is true for investors, first home buyers and other owner occupiers moving house as affordability remains squeezed due to high prices and high interest rates. Nick takes the opportunity to delve into the latest Buyer Classification series for each of the main centres and reveals some of the key differences. Kelvin also covers off the latest RBNZ data on how long borrowers are fixing their mortgage rates/payments for.The main thing to look out for this week is the Q3 GDP data, but our annual best of the best report will also be available from Wednesday.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Today, Nick chats to Rodney King, Mortgage Advisor for Loan Market Agile, based out of Christchurch.Rodney has been in the Banking and Finance industry for a number of years and has exceptional experience in finding the right bank or lender for every type of borrower. In a wide ranging chat, Nick and Rodney cover off the current market dynamics, weighing up the impact of the new Government and the RBNZ's monetary policy decisions. First home buyers are a regular topic of interest but it's other owner occupiers looking to move house that are a source of intrigue for Rodney. Investors too are discussed, especially given recent policy announcements and of course there's plenty of hype for the Christchurch market which continues to look more favourable than many other main centres from an affordability perspective.Contact Rodney at:https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/agile/about-us/rodney-king/P: 0274 555 863 E: rodney.king@loanmarket.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Two key releases were out last week, with the first being the last Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for the year from the RBNZ. As covered in Kelvin's MPS commentary, it was more about tough talk, not action, with the OCR on hold, but an increase to the forecast peak. "No tolerance for inflation surprises" summarises the RBNZ's take right now, hence the warning shot across the bow. The other important data updated was the CoreLogic HPI release which reaffirmed the recovery in action, including general strength across the main centres. Otherwise a busy week for data included the NZAC (economic activity), business AND consumer confidence and jobs data, as well as dwelling consents figures. Plus, Nick and Kelvin try to close the loop on all the proposed housing related policy from the new Government, including an update on the shortening of the brightline test and supply-side considerations.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Following the confirmation of the Sixth National Government of NZ Nick and Kelvin delve into the policy agreements (and disagreements) and probable implications.They cover the ruling out of the foreign buyer tax, the (faster) reinstatement of interest cost deductibility, the (likely) shortening of the bright-line test, changes to the tenancy laws and the modification of the RBNZ mandate to focus solely on price stability (inflation).Elsewhere, Kelvin re-summarises the release of the CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and the latest lending data from the RBNZ. And if you're interested in sponsoring Nick's fundraising effort (running 60kms) for Movember then you can do so here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com