The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week it's all about the economy (outside of a bit of Sail GP chat of course), after the release of the GDP data for Q4 last year confirmed we're officially back in a recession, the second time in a year for the classic double dip. What does it all mean though and what does the more timely NZAC tell us about how 2024 has started?Kelvin also speaks about the CoreLogic release of the monthly chart pack, where the property investor situation was a core focus. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also paid a visit to the CoreLogic offices recently, as part of their usual fact finding mission to put together their latest Article IV report. Taxes once again were a topic of interest - with housing in the spotlight. The lingering question though is how and when could we really see a fundamental shift in the NZ tax system? Following the leader of the opposition, Chris Hipkins opening the door on capital gains/wealth/land taxes again over the weekend though, perhaps it's sooner than we'd originally thought?Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The main release last week was the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data - a suburb-level view of median values and change over time. Kelvin offers up the insights from the update and some of the conversations that it sparked with the media.Then from the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, Nick and Kelvin discuss the early signs of first home buyers facing a bit more competition from other buyers - particularly multiple property owners, but will it last?Elsewhere, Kelvin wraps the macro economic data from Stats NZ, namely migration and rental figures, plus there's the REINZ house price index to analyse, including a couple of larger centres where values fell in February.Plus, check out the CoreLogic NZ Youtube page for the latest monthly video.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!On this guest episode Nick speaks with Joanie Rankin, Mobile Mortgage Manager at Westpac. Joanie has been a Mobile Mortgage Manager (MMM) for 3 years but has been in the home lending industry for 6 years.  Joanie has been with Westpac for 9 years now in various customer facing/service roles and has an in-depth knowledge across several fields of banking.  Joanie is very passionate and finds it hugely rewarding to help people into their first homes and loves being a part of their home buying journey.In the podcast Nick and Joanie really hone in on the first home buying experience - how triple M's help navigate the daunting and sometimes complex process and also some of the specific assistance that Westpac offer (including for Māori and Iwi).What are some of the misconceptions people have when wanting to buy their own home and similarly what are some of the myths people hold on to when it comes to dealing direct with the bank? Those are just a couple of questions Joanie answers in a conversation that should be a 'must-listen' for all aspiring first home buyers.For more information about Westpac first home buyer assistance, their MMMs, and how they can help, visit their website westpac.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Confirmation over the weekend of the reinstatement of interest deductibility for property investors is the key feature for today's podcast. It was a busy Sunday and Monday morning for Kelvin especially, as journos scramble to cover the Government release. Details were as expected but the focus was on the potential implications? What could it mean for rental supply, rental prices and even new build commitments? Nick and Kelvin work through it all to get your week started.Outside of that, there's the fourth annual Women & Property report to cover and the latest RBNZ stats on the terms selected by mortgage borrowers recently. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, to coincide with International Women's Day 2024, Nick speaks to an incredible, award winning leader within the banking and finance industry, Amanda Young. Amanda is an accomplished leader with an impressive 30+ year background in distribution across Personal and Business Banking, and Insurance. Amanda is known for her ability to implement solutions and remove complexity, while improving the performance of large teams. Amanda’s engaging and collaborative approach to problem solving has contributed to her success. Since stepping into the Head of Third Party Distribution role, Amanda advocates for the adviser industry within ASB and is motivated by continuous improvement to make a positive difference for our advisers and their customers.  Listen in to hear about Amanda's incredible experience, leadership lessons (including staying in the Softball 'Strike zone') and her advice for future leaders. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement and OCR call are in the spotlight. Though most of the market expected the OCR to stay flat, ANZ's surprising recent forecast of two more increases caused a bit of doubt among commentators, and in the end the RBNZ probably softened their stance more than most expected. No one is getting carried away though, with the OCR to remain suitably contractionary for a while yet.Meanwhile our HPI for Feb was released, with growth continuing to moderate and inconsistency across the country continuing to feature.The release did however lead to some headline grabbing stuff from Newshub, after Kelvin politely disagreed with ex-PM John Key's assertion that house prices will double in the next 10-years. Needless to say Nick took the opportunity to stir the pot a bit!Elsewhere Minister Bishop's plans to flood the market with developable land seem laudable but a bit optimistic - certainly conversation starting especially when combined with hopes to drag the house price to income ratio back towards 4.Plenty to dig into for the start of the week - and there'll be more to come later in the week with International Women's Day on the horizon.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Clearly the hottest topic this week is whether or not the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate at 2pm Wednesday (28th February). The guys give their takes on this issue, and ultimately, even if the OCR isn’t increased this week, a further rise down the track remains a possibility. Inflation isn’t dead yet!Meanwhile, the discussion of recent data is focused on our latest NZ Housing Chart Pack, which highlighted a very slow start to the year for property sales activity, and the NZ Activity Index for January – which suggested that the economy is ‘ticking over’; good for jobs, but might underpin some inflation and interest rate pressure.Also upcoming this week in terms of data: mortgage lending for January, filled jobs, ANZ business and consumer confidence, and new dwelling consents. Generally, the tone of these figures should be slightly positive, although the slide in dwelling consents is obviously a bit more concerning.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Quite a bit of the data over the past week has reiterated the idea that this recovery, while ongoing, could prove to be patchy/variable/uneven – or whichever synonym you like.According to the latest CoreLogic Report, affordability has improved on some measures since 2021, but not on others – e.g. mortgage payments as a % of gross average household income are still 49%. And most measures actually got a little worse again in Q4 2023 as house prices started to rise.Recent data on property sales volumes backs up the ‘patchiness’ theme, with activity across agent-led and private deals, only 2% higher in January than the same month in 2023 – which was itself a 40-year low for that month of the year. Clearly, volumes remains soft.Meanwhile, net migration remains high (albeit easing), and this is pressuring the supply/demand balance for tenants, pushing up rents.The guys also looked at the latest stats on debt to income ratios and found ‘more of the same’ – DTIs are currently under control, thanks to high mortgage rates.This week, it’s reasonably quiet for data releases, only watching for the NZ Activity Index for January on Thursday. It might be ‘middle of the road’.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!At face value, a rise in unemployment could never be a good thing …. but as the guys discuss this week, it’s a bit more nuanced than that.For a start, last week’s rise in the unemployment rate wasn’t driven by job losses, but instead a larger increase in the pool of available workers. And a 4% unemployment rate is still very low anyway. Those are the ‘good’ things.But on the flipside, could the smaller-than-expected rise in unemployment actually lead to another increase in the official cash rate? Increased employment supports the property market, but another OCR rise would be a potential headwind.Meanwhile, this week’s episode also covers the latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report for Q4 2023, showing early signs of a turning point for property resale performance. Buyer Classification for January is also discussed, as well as the data for December showing that most people are choosing to fix their mortgages for shorter periods.There was also good news in the form of the latest National Construction Pipeline Report, which suggested that the current slowdown in new dwelling consents (and future construction activity) isn’t likely to reach the depths of the post-GFC episode. That’s positive in terms of reducing the risk of housing supply shortages.This week, look out for the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report, REINZ January figures, December net migration, January rent prices, and Q4 DTI stats.Our new, monthly article series for Trademe is also discussed, and can be seen here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, Nick chats to Paulette Trotter, director and advisor at Loan Market Auckland, who was the number 1 mortgage advisor in NZ in 2023.Paulette's experience in the industry is vast and hugely successful. In this discussion Paulette discusses how the property market has kicked off in 2024, with first home buyers remaining a consistent presence. She speaks about some of the differences across the Auckland market, including interest in new build properties and the relative importance of tax changes and interest rates to potential property investors. Nick and Paulette also discuss the roles and influence of both the new Government and the RBNZ, including the proposed debt-to-income limits and loosening of the loan to value ratio restrictions.Lastly, Paulette offers up a few keys to success for her and her team Loan Market and a few tidbits of advice for good measure too.Contact Paulette at:https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/paulette-trotterP: 021 820 473E: paulette.trotter@loanmarket.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com