New mortgages still absorb 49% of income

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Quite a bit of the data over the past week has reiterated the idea that this recovery, while ongoing, could prove to be patchy/variable/uneven – or whichever synonym you like.

According to the latest CoreLogic Report, affordability has improved on some measures since 2021, but not on others – e.g. mortgage payments as a % of gross average household income are still 49%. And most measures actually got a little worse again in Q4 2023 as house prices started to rise.

Recent data on property sales volumes backs up the ‘patchiness’ theme, with activity across agent-led and private deals, only 2% higher in January than the same month in 2023 – which was itself a 40-year low for that month of the year. Clearly, volumes remains soft.

Meanwhile, net migration remains high (albeit easing), and this is pressuring the supply/demand balance for tenants, pushing up rents.

The guys also looked at the latest stats on debt to income ratios and found ‘more of the same’ – DTIs are currently under control, thanks to high mortgage rates.

This week, it’s reasonably quiet for data releases, only watching for the NZ Activity Index for January on Thursday. It might be ‘middle of the road’.

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