Looser CCCFA but don't bet on an imminent OCR cut

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The guys kick off this week’s discussion with a look at our house price index for January, which showed a smaller rise in values (0.4%) than in both November and December. With mortgage rates still pretty high, a mixture of weaker and stronger months for property values shouldn’t be a surprise. So then it’s just a choice of which adjective/synonym to use to describe patchiness!

Two other notable items last week were Andrew Bayly’s announcement that the Government will be looking to loosen the CCCFA rules again over the next few months – adding to some impetus for the property market – but also Paul Conway’s (RBNZ Chief Economist) speech which poured cold water on the idea that the official cash rate might be cut soon.

Elsewhere, mortgage lending activity continues to rise from a low base, consumer and business confidence are generally trending higher (but not consistently), while dwelling consents are still falling – and HUD was in the news for suggesting that the annual total, currently 37,000, could dip to around 32,000.

Coming up this week – big labour market news (unemployment rate likely to be higher but due to more workers not job losses), mortgage lending by the term of the loan chosen, and CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures for January.

All in all, plenty to discuss – oh, and the cricket at Bay Oval too.

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