The Incerto Podcast

Rory Sutherland is a behavioral scientist and Ogilvy Group executive, renowned for merging behavioral science with marketing insights. In this lively discussion, he connects the dots between Salman Rushdie's writing and the golden rules of marketing. Rory explores fat-tailed marketing strategies and the importance of concise communication. He highlights the complexities of subscription services and their hidden commitments, as well as the intriguing concept of costly signaling in marketing. The conversation also touches on mimetic desire in consumer behavior and the unexpected benefits of embracing serendipity.

✍︎: The Curious Worldview Newsletter - the ultimate compliment to the podcast...Other episode of the podcast that suit this episode...Brian Klaas – Fluke & RandomnessRuss Roberts – EconTalkLuca Dellanna – Ergodicity All The Way DownScott Patterson – Chaos KingsNassim Taleb & Incerto PodcastFollow me on Instagram – @ryanfhoggEverything Is Predictable – Tom ChiversTom Chivers is a prolific science writer whose written for Buzzfeed, The Telegraph, Unherd, published books, written for loads of other publications as well and now writes for Semafor’s daily flagship email (something I read everyday)… but here Tom is today to discuss his book about Bayes called… EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World and, the lead is not buried in this case, it is a book about Bayes Throerom which to put it simply… is an equation to calculate probability.Now, my Talebian listeners will recognise a contradiction to our worldview in the title here… everything is predictable? how often has Taleb’s quotes, how can we predict a future of infinite possibilities based off a finite experience of the past appeared on this podcast? We get into Chivers differences with that Talebian worldview, but as well, there is top to bottom what is Bayes theorem, why does it matter, the role of this theorem at the foundation of all of these LLM’s and therefore much of AI. a neat little anecdote of Chivers family member, Sir John Maynard Keynes and plenty more as well!00:00 – Who Is Tom Chivers01:34 – Great Great Uncle John Maynard Keynes08:44 – What’s The Point Of Bayes?19:14 – What Is Bayes Theorem?39:34 – Disagreeing With Nassim Taleb 52:24 – Counterintuitive Aspects Of Bayes56:28 – Bayes & LLM’s & AI1:15:12 – Serendipity In Tom’s Life🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg

Apple - Brian Klaas (Full Episode) Curious Worldview PodcastSpotify - Brian Klaas (Full Episode) Curious Worldview Podcast✍︎: The Curious Worldview Newsletter https://curiousworldview.beehiiv.com/subscribehttps://atlasgeographica.com/brian-klaas/Brian Klaas is an associate professor in global politics at University College London, author of several books, host of a really good podcast, creator of a huge substack and someone who has created a life for himself for which I wish to emulate many parts…We recorded this in person!… Brian and I sat down together in his Winchester kitchen and spoke about randomness, chance, Nassim Taleb, Flukes and why all these things are worth thinking about…If you like Taleb, then Brian’s new book, Fluke which just came out… is right up your alley. Brian’s research is wonderful.00:00 – Who Is Brian Klaas?01:00 – Life Can Be Understood Backwards, But It Must Be Lived Forwards.11:55 – Does Brian Feel Like He Has More Or Less Agency?20:51 – Taleb’s Blindfold Metaphor & The Problems Of Prediction.35:20 – How Nassim Taleb Effected Brian’s Worldview.44:55 – Why Experimentation Is Wise.50:55 – Why The Minority Rule Is Relevant To Politics.53:20 – Extremistan V Mediocristan1:03:00 – The Idea Of Lock-In.1:07:30 – Serendipity In Brian’s Life & The Media Landscape In The Next 20 Years.1:22:00 – Brian’s Favourite Authors.1:24:30 – An Ode To Madagascar & Explanation OF Geographical Determinism.Curious Things Mentioned During The EpisodeScott Patterson – Chaos KingsRuss Roberts – Reflecting on 15 Years Of EconTalkLuca Dellana – ErgodicityMe Being Interviewed For The Profile On Nassim TalebNassim Taleb Incerto PodcastNassim Taleb Incerto Book Reviews🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhoggInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

Luca Dellanna, author and independent consultant, discusses the concept of ergodicity and its relevance in decision-making. Topics include fat tails and power laws, consultants lacking personal stakes, achieving big impacts with minimal risks, the power of compounding, collecting data, taking daily losses, and the role of serendipity in uncertain professions.

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/russ-roberts/Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/Russ Roberts ladies and gentlemen.One of the true OG’s of podcasting and in fact so OG, that Russ is one of the mediums earliest adopters, Russ has been at this racket for nearly 20 years now since he debuted EconTalk in 2006. And although economics is literally in the title, the show expands well beyond the narrow domain of theoretical economics – it is much broader and has transformed over the years into one of the most authentic reflections of a hosts shifting curiosities.And with guests the likes of Milton Friedman, Thomas Pikety, Christopher Hitchens, Michael Lewis and even the great and elusive Nassim Taleb, you can see why EconTalk is one of the most appraised shows out there.Time Stamps For Russ Roberts00:00 – Introduction02:23 – Christopher Hitchens07:32 – Good Communication Versus Good Talking… (Podcasting?)29:53 – Do Certain Cultures Create More Good Communicators Than Others?35:46 – Nassim Taleb All The Way Down59:08 – I Run A Theory By Russ + Russ Reflecting On EconTalk1:12:03 – The Role That Serendipity Has Played In Russ’s Life1:17:23 – Country Russ Is Particularly Bullish On1:22:51 – Conversation Between Any Two People Of History🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhoggCurious Things Mentioned During The EpisodeChristopher Hitchens MortalityBen Burgis – Life Of Christopher HitchensScott Patterson – Chaos KingsNassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/the-incerto-nassim-taleb-podcast/Taleb & Mandelbrot paper - https://users.math.yale.edu/~bbm3/web_pdfs/mildvswild.pdfInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

🎙️: A Curious Worldview Podcast - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/scott-patterson/Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/Scott Patterson writes for the WSJ and is author of The Quants, DarkPools and Chaos Kings. Anyone who has listened to this podcast for a while will be familiar with how influential Nassim Taleb has been on shaping my worldview…Just a few of the characters profiled in this book include Bill Ackman, who runs the famous Pershing Square hedge fund, and made one of the greatest trades in recorded history at the beginning of Covid, Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel who together have made billions via their unusual hedge fund, Universa and as well, Didier Sornet, a fascinatingly interesting french mathematician and academic who believes opposite to Taleb, that Black Swans can be predicted.In this podcast with Scott Patterson, you can expect to hear about the core of the chaos kings worldview, a lot about Nassim Taleb, serendipity and as well anecdotes for days that give you a deep insight into Scott as both a journalist and author.00:00 – Introduction02:30 – How The Chaos Kings Have Effected Scott’s Worldview10:10 – Taleb’s Hedge Fund Antifragile Trading Strategy12:40 – Scott’s Introduction To Taleb & Spitznagel21:50 – What Principles Enabled Taleb & Spitznagel To Endure Loss Day After Day28:55 – Why Do These Masters Of Risk Expose Themselves To Such Physical Risk34:15 – The Core Of The Chaos Kings Worldview47:47 – Taleb Or Sornet?48:06 – Nassim Taleb Biography?48:23 – Chamath Palihapatya49:36 – How Does A Journalist Optimise For Tail Risk + Extremistan Explained For Authors54:29 – How Will Scott Teach His Son To Optimise For Serendipity55:55 – What Country Is Scott Bullish On🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhoggCurious Things Mentioned During The EpisodeNassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/the-incerto-nassim-taleb-podcast/Sophie Gray recently published this profile - https://thespectator.com/topic/nassim-nicholas-taleb-anti-confidence-man-bitcoin-ftx/ - of Nassim Taleb in the spectator.Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

Nassim Taleb, an influential author and scholar known for his work on risk and uncertainty, discusses the unexpected journey from podcast recognition to a profile in The Spectator. He shares insights on embracing randomness and serendipity in personal success, using the metaphor of crossing a road blindfolded. The conversation also highlights the misconceptions surrounding his book 'The Black Swan' and the evolving views on cryptocurrency. Taleb's enduring impact on how we perceive chance and decision-making is a focal point throughout.

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736-----Sophie Gray recently published this profile - https://thespectator.com/topic/nassim-nicholas-taleb-anti-confidence-man-bitcoin-ftx/ - of Nassim Taleb in the spectator.This podcast is about the process of interviewing Taleb and putting together this piece.