The Oracle by Polymarket Podcast

🔮NEW: Oracle Podcast Feeds . We’re now distributing the podcast on YouTube, Apple, and Spotify. When you subscribe and drop a review / like / comment on one of those platforms it will help us grow and get more guests. 👉 Subscribe on YouTube👉 Subscribe on Spotify 👉 Subscribe on Apple PodcastsPorter Stansberry is the founder of Stansberry Research, one of the largest private financial publishers in the US. In a recent tweet, he predicted that the United States will default on its debt within four years. We had him on to talk the tariff endgame, future of the dollar, inflation, US manufacturing, and how he’s positioned today. * Follow Porter on X* Get Porter’s Daily JournalTimestamps(00:00) Introduction(1:00) US default prediction(2:59) Will Trump cut Social Security?(4:07) Why Trump loves tariffs(5:33) End of US dollar dominance and alternatives? (12:12) Will DOGE make a dent?(13:57) What would a serious version of US industrial policy look like?(18:30) Can Trump move the Republican party towards tariffs?(20:05) How Trump's tariff policy will fail(21:45) Tariffs and inflation(26:05) Can the US go "cold turkey" off China?(29:06) Bitcoin as a reserve currency(31:05) Porter's portfolio todayConnect With The Oracle* Tips? Feedback? Story ideas? Write oracle@polymarket.com or @wasabiboat on X* Write for The Oracle: We’re expanding our coverage and looking to hire more writers and investigators. Details Here.DisclaimerNothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

Dmitri Alperovitch is the founder of cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike, Chairman of geopolitical think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, and the author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century. In the forecasting community, Dmitri is legendary for his call of Russia's invasion of Ukraine two months before it happened. Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(04:30) How easy is it to hack Signal?(10:00) Ukraine & Trump's transactional foreign policy(26:00) How Dmitry Predicted the Russian invasion(27:36) Ukraine Russia ceasefire predictions(33:30) Will Trump pull out of NATO?(32:50) Taiwan's strategic importance (40:10) What happens if China gets Taiwan?(43:01) Indicators of a possible Taiwan invasion(48:30) The Taiwan blockade scenario(53:20) Will Trump defend Taiwan?(56:30) Does Deep Seek mean chip controls backfired?(1:06:10) China, AI, and Biotech (1:11:20) AI lab espionage (1:15:00) Middle East and Israel-Saudi normalization?(1:18:00) The Red Sea conflict(1:19:02) North Korea deal pt. 2?(1:24:42) Are Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea an "axis"?Connect With The Oracle* Tips? Feedback? Story ideas? Write oracle@polymarket.com or @wasabiboat on X* NEW: We’re On X: Follow The Oracle for updates* Write for The Oracle: We’re expanding our coverage and looking to hire more writers and investigators. Details Here.DisclaimerNothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

Thanks for reading The Oracle by Polymarket. Subscribe free to join 55,550 readers who trust markets, not experts.Matthew Pines is the Executive Director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute and an advisor to Skywatcher, a privately-funded UAP crash retrieval program. We talk: (2:30) How to spend time outside the Overton window to identify low probability, high impact events. (8:30) How UAPs moved from the realm of Alex Jones to the National Defense Authorization Act.(12:30) Has Bitcoin been captured by the state? (28:10) Odds for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025?(41:40) Is it bad for Bitcoin if DOGE gets government spending under control?(58:31) How does Matt evaluate new whistleblower claims about UAPs?(63:37) Matt's personal confidence level for various UAP scenarios: existence, reverse engineering, genetic materials, psionic assets, etc.(70:36) How can we bet on this? What types of prediction markets will help us evaluate disclosures coming this year?(79: 44) What will Skywatcher do if / when they retrieve a UAP? * Follow Matthew on X* Bitcoin Policy Institute * Follow The Oracle on X * Follow Will on X DisclaimerNothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise and author of "Radical Portfolio Theory," dives into the intriguing world of prediction markets and their potential in modern investing. He argues for a radical portfolio with a mix of centralized and decentralized assets, including professional gambling. Topics include the impact of AI on U.S. markets, the future of Bitcoin, and the peculiar dynamics of MicroStrategy's investment strategy. Jeff also shares cautionary tales about BTC trading and the importance of probabilistic thinking in navigating markets.

On Friday January 3rd the House of Representatives will vote to select the next Speaker. On Polymarket the odds for whether Johnson will be out as Speaker before inauguration sit at 12%.But a Substack post this morning by veteran reporter Chris Cillizza argued that these odds are too low and the current narrow Republican majority in the House makes it a real possibility that Johnson could face a substantial challenge.We caught up with Chris for a chat on why he thinks the market is potentially overrating Johnson’s chances and what it means for the Speaker vote and Trump’s second term agenda.Follow Chris on XSubscribe to Chris’ SubstackFollow The Oracle on XDisclaimerNothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

Thanks for reading The Oracle by Polymarket. Subscribe free to join 30,535 readers who trust markets, not experts.Today we are publishing our first podcast, a conversation recorded Friday with Jim Bianco covering all things macro through the lens of Polymarket odds. We cover: * When Jim thinks the Fed's rate cutting cycle might end,* What Trump's tariffs might look like,* The odds for a US bank failure in the coming months, * Jim's contrarian take on what he expects Powell to say at the FOMC press conference this week; and * What economic markets Jim would like to see on Polymarket DisclaimerNothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com