The Oracle by Polymarket Podcast đź”® PODCAST: Jeff Park on Prediction Markets and Radical Portfolio Theory
8 snips
Feb 2, 2025 
Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise and author of "Radical Portfolio Theory," dives into the intriguing world of prediction markets and their potential in modern investing. He argues for a radical portfolio with a mix of centralized and decentralized assets, including professional gambling. Topics include the impact of AI on U.S. markets, the future of Bitcoin, and the peculiar dynamics of MicroStrategy's investment strategy. Jeff also shares cautionary tales about BTC trading and the importance of probabilistic thinking in navigating markets.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Radical Portfolio Theory
- Jeff Park introduces "radical portfolio theory," challenging the 60/40 portfolio.
- He proposes 60% in state-influenced assets and 40% in decentralized, state-resistant assets, including professional gambling.
China's Deflationary AI Risk
- The true risk of Chinese AI advancements like DeepSeek isn't American dominance being eclipsed.
- It's China exporting deflation by making technology cheaper, impacting growth assumptions in equity markets.
Why 60/40 Is Broken
- The 60/40 portfolio is flawed because equities and bonds are now correlated due to government spending.
- The world is experiencing increasing volatility and a loss of trust in institutions, requiring a new approach.