FICC Focus

Deepak Narula, founder and co-CIO of Metacapital Management, dives into the mortgage market's potential upheaval. He discusses the impact of new tariffs, the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the negative convexity profile of mortgage-backed securities. Narula also addresses the risks of prepayment and stagflation while highlighting the opportunities presented by machine learning models. The conversation offers a glimpse into navigating current economic challenges and the evolving landscape of housing finance.

Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics and former Deputy Director at the IMF, joins Damian Sassower to tackle the intricacies of global economic challenges. They discuss the impact of central bank policies on recession risks in the U.S. and emerging markets. Natalucci highlights the complexities of currency dynamics and the influence of structural selling on the U.S. dollar. The conversation also covers the implications of credit default swaps and the need for international cooperation in navigating frontier markets.

In this engaging discussion, Per Wehrmann, Head of European high yield at DWS Investments GmBH, shares his expertise on the shifting landscapes of investor sentiment and market dynamics. He and Mahesh Bhimalingam analyze the recent downturn in high yield markets, driven by rising default concerns and trade tensions. The conversation highlights the cautious stance of investors, their increasing cash holdings, and the impact of central bank policies. They also explore which sectors are favored and the implications for future performance.

Oskar Lewnowski, Founder and CEO of Orion Resource Partners, shares insights on the crucial role of metals like copper and uranium in the current economic landscape. He discusses how energy demands balance with social needs while addressing the complexities of the supply-demand dynamic in commodities. Lewnowski also highlights the significance of financing new mining projects amidst a changing geopolitical climate and explores strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing mine construction in emerging markets.

In this discussion, James Grant, founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, shares his insights on the implications of recent U.S. tariffs and their dramatic impact on financial markets. He teams up with Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to explore the risks for bondholders amid rising inflation and discuss current economic uncertainties. The trio delves into the significant influence of U.S. trade policies on national security and reflects on historical protectionist ideas that resonate today. They also navigate the evolving dynamics of cryptocurrency and its potential threats to market stability.

Maeva Cousin, Bloomberg Economics' Chief Trade and Climate Economist, dives deep into the intricacies of US tariffs and their ripple effects. She discusses recent tariff hikes on imports from countries like China and the potential repercussions on global trade relations. Maeva highlights the risks of stagflation and increased inflation for the US economy, as well as how these developments might affect the Japanese yen, pointing to its safe-haven status during tumultuous times. A compelling analysis of how trade tensions shape forex markets!

Ricardo Gennari, managing director and head of US Real Estate Credit at Leste Group, dives into the evolving landscape of real estate private credit. He discusses how rising interest rates are reshaping lending strategies and the need for liquidity maintenance. Gennari highlights the burgeoning investments in data centers and the importance of energy supply in this sector. With consolidation trends in the private credit industry, he sheds light on opportunities for niche players amidst economic challenges, making a compelling case for intelligent investment strategies.

Jeffrey Rosenberg, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager at BlackRock Systematic Fixed Income, dives deep into systematic investing and its transformative impact on credit markets. He discusses the evolution of strategies that drive returns, focusing on the rise of multistrat hedge funds and the importance of adapting approaches during downturns. Rosenberg highlights the innovative use of the Merton model in credit derivatives and the significance of blending automated models with human oversight for optimized performance.

There has been growth in the product offering in the crypto options market, which often has a right-tail skew and exhibits spot-up, vol-up dynamics. This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2025 held in London on March 18. The panel discussion on the crypto adoption curve was moderated by Anna Edwards, Boomberg News' Anchor, with Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance, University of Sussex and Exponential Science Foundation, Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives, Cboe Global Markets, and James Harris, CCO, Zodia Custody.

A comfortable environment of US exceptionalism has been replaced by noise around tariff risks, the EU’s fiscal bazooka and US policy pivots, which has supported cross-asset volatility. This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2025 held in London on March 18. Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu gave an opening speech on macro and volatility across markets. A panel discussion on the options market was moderated by Noel Hebert, BI’s global director of FICC strategy, with Dennis Davitt, CEO at Millbank Dartmoor Portsmouth, Pierre-Henri de Monts de Savasse, senior portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay and Pierre de Saab, Former Partner at Dominice & Co Asset Management.