FICC Focus

Peter Kent, co-head of Emerging Market Fixed Income at Ninety One, brings his 25 years of experience to the table in a conversation with Damian Sassower. They dive into the shifting dynamics between emerging and developed markets, exploring how U.S. monetary policy and tariffs influence investment strategies. Kent emphasizes the resilience of South Africa's economy and its investment potential. The duo also discusses the challenges of managing currency risk and the evolving role of the U.S. dollar in global markets.

Nathan Dean, a Senior Policy Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, dives into the intricate world of stablecoin regulation. He highlights the significance of the GENIUS Act and its implications for the financial system. Dean discusses the evolving landscape for stablecoins, the competition between private issuers and banks, and the anticipated changes in Treasury demand. He also emphasizes the need for proactive regulator engagement and explores how stablecoins could reshape global finance, integrating with existing payment systems and unlocking blockchain's transformative potential.

Ross Rosenfelt, a managing director at Oaktree’s Opportunities Group with expertise in restructuring, shares insights into today’s distressed debt landscape. He discusses how disqualified lender lists may misguide sponsors by overlooking constructive funds. The conversation touches on innovative liability management strategies and the importance of collaboration in restructuring. Rosenfelt also reflects on his career transition from law to finance, the ambitious market mood amidst economic challenges, and the complexities of recent bankruptcy cases involving significant debt.

US Treasury yields are the lowest among the G3+, once hedged back to US dollars. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s US interest rate strategist, and Huw Worthington, his European rate strategy counterpart, take up the topic in this episode of the Macro Matters podcast. The analysts discuss central bank policy action and government bond markets in general. They also discuss why long-end yields have been more sensitive to fears of rising deficits than shorter-maturity bonds. Terminal users can view their note on how Treasuries are the lowest-yielding sovereign bond market, after the currency hedge, by clicking here.  The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Thomas Samson, a High Yield Portfolio Manager at Muzinich & Co., oversees a massive €4 billion portfolio. He discusses the results from Bloomberg Intelligence’s latest investor survey on credit markets and analyzes the strong recovery in high yield during the first half of the year. Thomas delves into dollar flows into euro-denominated assets, the effects of the trade war on market dynamics, and investor sentiment moving into the second half. He also touches on private credit trends and the implications for default rates.

Rates volatility has compressed with the Fed on hold and mean reversion of yields, but exhibited a bumpy path in 1H. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management. They discuss the dynamics of rates volatility and reliability of strategies to diversify portfolios.

The nearly 15% euro-dollar rally in 1H was fueled largely by dollar weakness and a potentially bullish cyclical case for the euro — especially expectations for a supportive fiscal and monetary policy mix — which may continue to support the outlook into 2H. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Constantin Bolz, head of G10 FX for UBS’ Chief Investment Office, about how evolving euro-area and US fiscal and monetary policy may help euro-dollar strength into 2H and beyond, depending on how the US economic story plays out. They also discuss the de-dollarization trend and how the SNB could address the challenge of an appreciating franc.

There will almost certainly be some stress later this year in funding markets, but it might fall short of the level required for the Federal Reserve to step in, Will Hoffman, Bloomberg Intelligence senior associate for US and Canadian rates strategy, says on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Hoffman is joined by co-host Ira Jersey, chief US rates strategist, to discuss the recently announced potential changes to Basel capital rules, such as the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (ESLR). After discussing what it means (or doesn’t mean) for Treasury markets, the pair unpack the biggest topics in the world of money funds, including the potential for stablecoin growth and tokenized money fund adoption driving net demand for T-bills. They also dive into the debt-ceiling unwind — covering T-bill net issuance patterns and the potential disruption to repo markets. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. 

Bryan High, Head of Barings’ Global Private Finance Group, shares insights from his 18 years in the industry. He discusses the global investment landscape, highlighting how clients are looking beyond North America for opportunities. High emphasizes the shift from traditional lending to innovative private credit solutions, the importance of effective leverage, and the potential of niche asset classes. He also dives into assessing non-cash flow companies and the complexities of investing in life sciences, stressing the need for collaboration and adaptability in uncertain markets.

The Federal Reserve may cut faster and to a lower interest rate then the market is pricing, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Jersey flies solo on this episode, discussing his takeaways from the June FOMC meeting, his view on the timing and pace of rate cuts and what it would mean for the Treasury yield curve.