FICC Focus

Ben Emons, founder of Fed Watch Advisors and expert on central banks, joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss market implications following the recent FOMC meeting. They delve into how potential Trump policies may lead to heightened volatility in 2025. The conversation also covers the intricacies of interest rates and their effects on Treasuries, alongside currency hedging strategies amid liquidity concerns. Insights into the Fed's adjustments and the ripple effects on global markets offer a comprehensive financial outlook.

A new administration and the specter of inflation are among the levers for municipal bonds moving into next year. On this month’s Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by three bank strategists with differing takes on the municipal landscape for 2025.Peter Degroot, head of municipal research and strategy at JPMorgan; Vikram Rai, who leads municipal-markets strategy at Wells Fargo; and Mikhail Foux, chief of municipal research at Barclays reflect on this year’s muni performance and discuss their calls for the year ahead.

Daniel Pietrzak, KKR partner and global head of private credit, shares his extensive knowledge on the booming $2 trillion private credit market. He explores the surge of investment-grade players entering private credit and its implications for asset allocation. The conversation delves into the strategic capital deployment in Asia, particularly India, and highlights the current risk environment shaped by geopolitical dynamics. Pietrzak also emphasizes the importance of disciplined underwriting and collaborative risk management in navigating this evolving landscape.

With credit markets enjoying a strong 2024 and with many uncertainties, charting the course for 2025 is a challenge. Will US trade policies slow Fed cuts and will ECB easing stay the course as priced, and what will this mean for credit? Will stubborn US yields filter into Europe? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Marc Rovers, Head of European Credit at Legal & General Investment Management, discuss the state of credit and the 2025 outlook for US and Europe.They tackle relative value across credit on both sides of the Atlantic; high yield and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; fundamental and curve views. They also detail the risks across the US, UK and Europe, including German and French politics.

Sergey Goncharov, a portfolio manager and head of fixed income Americas at Vontobel, shares his insights on the shifting landscape of emerging market economics. He discusses how diverging monetary policies will emerge in 2025 and the impact of US protectionism and Chinese stimulus. Goncharov also highlights the influence of a strong dollar on inflation in emerging markets and the investment dynamics surrounding China's sovereign bonds. The conversation delves into global growth forecasts, the implications of 'Japanification,' and the evolving macro trends shaping the future.

Celebrate the approaching year with insights on interest rates, credit, and currency trends! Unravel unexpected market surprises from the past year and explore future shifts in the bond landscape. Dive into the dynamics of foreign exchange markets amidst economic resilience and volatility. Learn about the implications of the Supreme Court's Purdue ruling on bankruptcy and catch an outlook on Europe's tumultuous financial climate. Plus, discover how new housing policies may impact first-time buyers and the future of mortgage markets.

Angelo Rufino, head of Special Situations at Bain Capital, shares his insights on the hybrid capital landscape, blending debt and equity. He likens the investment approach to a 'marriage' of interests that provides operational value and financing. The discussion also delves into the affected companies like Spirit Airlines and their bankruptcy challenges, along with the impact of current economic policies on distressed debt supply and M&A activities. Rufino's expert perspective sheds light on navigating today’s volatile market.

Rod Chadehumbe, an asset-backed securities strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, dives into the current landscape of the US ABS market. He discusses how recent tightening in corporate bonds has made ABS more appealing. Chadehumbe explains the engineering behind various ABS products, highlighting risk profiles and investor protections. He also touches on the impact of inflation on auto financing and offers insights into expected trends and issuance for 2025, making it clear that navigating this market requires keen awareness of liquidity and volatility dynamics.

Emerging-market assets are likely to swing on US-centric narratives, yet domestic growth and inflation dynamics may be of less concern than in previous cycles. Ricardo Adrogue, head of global sovereign debt and currencies at Barings, joinsDamian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to discuss the year-ahead outlook for EM credit, rates and foreign exchange. Adrogue and Sassower touch on issues ranging from US trade policy and EM remittances to Chinese deflation and a weaker euro.The EM Lens podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Deteriorating French political headlines are exacerbating the underwhelming French and euro-zone economic narrative, confirming what has become a compellingly euro bearish case into 2025. Still, talk of an existential risk to the currency appears premature, and much of the bad news is arguably priced in. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Elliot Hentov, global head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, about what could trigger a turnaround in Europe's fortunes and how that could impact asset allocations into 2025.Elliot and Audrey also touch on president-elect Donald Trump's key appointments so far and what they may mean for policy -- particularly trade.