FICC Focus

Dirk Willer, Managing Director and Global Head of Macroeconomic Research at Citigroup, shares insights on the shifting dynamics in emerging markets. He discusses how improving growth and inflation expectations are influencing local rates, especially in a dovish U.S. Fed environment. The conversation dives into the complexities of the fixed income landscape, the impact of dollar fluctuations on emerging markets, and how AI is shaping new macroeconomic strategies. Willer emphasizes the importance of understanding capital flows and central bank behaviors in today's global economy.

Phoebe White, Head of Inflation Strategy at JPMorgan, specializes in TIPS and inflation derivatives. She discusses the potential impact of a September interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve on inflation expectations. Phoebe explains how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities work as a hedge for investors and navigates the complexities of the TIPS market. She highlights the relationship between real yields and inflation, emphasizing trading strategies influenced by economic reports and Fed policies, while also delving into the importance of analyzing core CPI.

Andrew Jackson, Head of Investments at Vontobel, shares his extensive experience in fixed income and credit markets. He emphasizes the importance of active management and alpha vs. beta strategies, particularly in emerging markets. Jackson discusses the unpredictability of the bond market and the challenges posed by macroeconomic shifts. He highlights the current robust state of credit fundamentals in the U.S. and Europe, while also addressing potential risks in private credit. The conversation reveals insights on navigating liquidity and strategic trading in volatile environments.

Andrew Axelrod, Founder and CEO of Axar Capital Management, discusses his firm's investment strategies in distressed corporate credit. He explains how focused buyers like Axar help stabilize troubled loans while emphasizing the 'loan-to-own' approach and the necessity of diligent capital commitment. Axelrod shares insights on identifying effective management teams and adhering to a strategic process during economic shifts. The conversation also touches on notable distressed cases, including the challenges faced by companies like Claire's and CommScope.

Join Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist at Invesco, as he explores macroeconomic trends alongside experts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman. They discuss how technology raises living standards despite fears, and the short-term dynamics of inflation. Levitt emphasizes strategic investment amidst uncertainty, highlighting alternatives to the 60-40 portfolio model. The conversation touches on global market strategies and innovative sectors like healthcare, urging listeners to rethink asset allocation and navigate inflation risks effectively.

Elias Haddad, Senior Market Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, discusses the current state of the U.S. dollar and its implications for the economy. He highlights the recent weakness in non-farm payrolls and the unexpected firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief as key factors sustaining a bearish dollar narrative. They explore the Federal Reserve's shifting interest rate stance and its impact on the dollar compared to other currencies. Additionally, Haddad examines the euro's potential growth against the dollar, suggesting a bullish outlook.

Josh Zegen, principal and co-founder of Madison Realty Capital, shares insights into the evolving realm of real estate private credit. He highlights the importance of flexible capital in filling the financing gap traditionally occupied by banks. The conversation dives into the affordability crisis in residential real estate and the trend towards single-family rentals. Zegen also discusses innovative strategies for repurposing office spaces into residential units and explores nontraditional investment sectors, shedding light on their unique risks and opportunities.

Russ Brownback, co-portfolio manager at BlackRock, shares his expertise on global fixed income. He discusses the U.S. dollar's enduring status as the world's reserve currency and identifies promising yield opportunities in both U.S. and European markets. Brownback highlights a significant liquidity disparity in the U.S. economy, emphasizing the need for reinvestment amid impressive cash generation. He also suggests strategies to leverage elevated volatility in fixed-income markets, advocating for the sale of options to enhance returns.

Erica Adelberg, Chief Mortgage Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, dives into the evolving mortgage-backed securities market. She discusses the upcoming policy shifts, including GSE privatization and the adoption of VantageScore, which broadens mortgage access for first-time buyers. Adelberg highlights the changing dynamics of loans and the effects of the Federal Reserve's decisions on market stability. She also tackles the implications of new policies on veterans and the potential for increased refinancing as mortgage rates decline.

David Saitowitz, the Head of US Liquid Credit for ICG, shares his extensive experience in finance and discusses the evolving landscape of CLOs. He highlights the frequent repricings seen in 2024 and the challenges posed by recent market volatility. Saitowitz delves into strategies for growing the US liquid-credit business and the dynamics of CLO performance amidst changing economic conditions. He also addresses the rising competition from private credit and the significance of discipline in navigating credit investments. Tune in for insights and projections!