FICC Focus

Win Thin, Chief Economist at Bank of Nassau 1982 Limited, shares his insights on the dollar's cyclical downturn. He and fellow expert Audrey Childe-Freeman discuss how weak labor market data could lead to further Federal Reserve rate-cut discussions. They analyze the implications of fiscal policies and tariffs on currency dynamics, highlighting the bearish outlook for the dollar against the euro. The duo also emphasizes the merits of defensive currencies like the Swiss franc as global economic uncertainties loom.

Jim Dunbar, Partner and Head of Real Estate Lending at Varde Partners, shares insights into the evolving world of property lending. He discusses how navigating the affordability crisis reveals both challenges and opportunities in the commercial real estate sector. Dunbar emphasizes the importance of flexible capital and strategic advantages, like owning a mortgage servicing company. He also explores the divergent trends between the Sunbelt and gateway markets, shedding light on unique investment strategies in non-traditional real estate sectors.

George Ferguson is a senior aerospace/defense & airline analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and he joins the discussion on global defense spending shifts. They explore the implications of President Trump's defense burden-sharing strategies, particularly in light of Ukraine. Ferguson details how technological advancements in warfare transform military approaches and contract dynamics. He also highlights key players like Lockheed Martin who stand to gain from these defense expenditures while discussing the logistical challenges of modern air defense systems.

Matthew Moniot, a credit risk specialist at Man Group; James Plunkett, overseeing capital distribution at Natwest; and Lento Tang, a European bank analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, dive into the intricacies of Significant Risk Transfers (SRTs). They discuss the critical role SRTs play in banking risk management and the shifting dynamics in Europe versus the U.S. Additionally, they unpack the challenges posed by capital regulations and the evolving landscape of investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance for credit investors.

Dan Hanson, Chief UK Economist at Bloomberg Economics, shares insights on the contrasting perceptions of the UK's economic outlook. He discusses the surprising growth amidst negative narratives, highlighting real wage increases and government spending impacts. The conversation turns to the challenges of productivity and investment, urging for increased public support. Finally, Hanson delves into the current state of the gilt market and the fiscal hurdles as the autumn budget approaches, providing a nuanced view of the UK's economic landscape.

Matt Bloomfield, Partner at Palmer Square and President of Palmer Square Capital BDC, shares insights on managing CLOs amidst the current credit landscape. He discusses the challenges of tight loan spreads and the need for strategic risk management. Bloomfield elaborates on the evolution of private credit, emphasizing the relationship with private equity, and highlights the importance of credit selection and diversification in navigating market complexities. He conveys optimism about growth in structured credit while advocating for adaptability in investment strategies.

Hemant Baijal, Head of Macro Alpha Strategies at Invesco, shares his insights on the dynamics of global rates and FX risks. He highlights how the future of the dollar is influenced by unhedged dollar assets and explores economic factors affecting investment strategies. The discussion delves into the impact of U.S. economic trends on global bond markets and examines currency flows amidst evolving credit landscapes. Baijal also addresses risk assessment for international and emerging markets, emphasizing the significance of strategic asset allocation.

In this insightful discussion, Tim Tan, Lead Asia Credit Strategist; Jason Lee, Associate covering China and India bonds; Basel Al-Waqayan, Middle East Fixed Income Strategist; Hema Patel, European Credit Strategist; and Reto Bachmann, Chief Strategist for Structured Finance, unpack the dynamics of global credit markets. They delve into the growing interest in Asia dollar bonds and Renminbi alternatives, explore the resilience of the Middle Eastern Sukuk market, and analyze trends in European green credit and structured finance, providing valuable strategies for investors.

Join Jason Hannon, Head of Municipal Strategy at Wilmington Trust, as he dives into the current dynamics of the municipal bond market. With over 20 years of investment experience, he discusses how record muni issuance is affecting yields and investment strategies. Jason highlights the importance of active management in navigating today's market volatility and the steepening yield curve. He also unveils the hidden benefits of Separately Managed Accounts, clarifying misconceptions and showcasing how they can optimize returns for investors.

John Cortese, Head of Portfolio Management at Apollo, shares his extensive experience in navigating credit markets. He dives into the staggering $40 trillion private investment-grade segment and discusses the evolution of private credit. Cortese explains the advantages of scale in trading, liquidity challenges, and how non-bank lenders are reshaping financing. He also reflects on lessons from the early days of trading synthetics and the impact of technological changes on credit trading strategies.