FICC Focus FX Moment: Bank of Nassau’s Thin Sees Dollar Leg Lower Into Fall
Sep 3, 2025
Win Thin, Chief Economist at Bank of Nassau 1982 Limited, shares his insights on the dollar's cyclical downturn. He and fellow expert Audrey Childe-Freeman discuss how weak labor market data could lead to further Federal Reserve rate-cut discussions. They analyze the implications of fiscal policies and tariffs on currency dynamics, highlighting the bearish outlook for the dollar against the euro. The duo also emphasizes the merits of defensive currencies like the Swiss franc as global economic uncertainties loom.
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Cyclical Dollar Downturn Brewing
- Win Thin argues recent US weakness could trigger a cyclical dollar downturn as tariff effects finally filter through the economy.
- He expects further labor-market softness to prompt Fed rate-cut talk and weigh on the dollar.
Watch Jobs Data Before September FOMC
- Monitor upcoming US employment prints closely because a soft jobs report could make a September cut likely.
- Use JOLTS and claims data as previews of labor-market health.
Stagflation Raises Dollar Risk
- Audrey and Win highlight a stagflation conundrum where the Fed may face conflicting mandates if growth slows but inflation stays sticky.
- That mix can be dollar-negative because policy options become constrained.