FICC Focus

Ben Emons, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Fed Watch Advisors, shares insights on US-China trade tensions and their ripple effects on inflation and employment. He discusses the potential impact of tariffs on growth and market behavior, while emphasizing gold's recent surge as a hedge against uncertainty. The conversation dives into the future of the Federal Reserve, its leadership, and how global factors are influencing asset allocation strategies, advocating for diversification into emerging markets and select sectors.

Douglas Mintz, a partner at Cadwalader specializing in financial restructuring, discusses the evolving landscape of distressed debt and creditor strategies. He advocates for proactive co-ops among lenders to avoid chaos during liability management exercises. The conversation delves into recent court rulings affecting restructuring practices, market shifts towards inclusive deals, and the implications of litigation cases like Serta and Mitel. Mintz also addresses the risks of premature organizing and sheds light on notable ongoing legal developments in the space.

In a captivating discussion, Axel Merk, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, delves into gold's recent surge. He attributes the rally to speculators and institutional buying, while retail investors have largely sold off. Merk emphasizes the importance of effective management in gold production and explains the intriguing relationship between real yields and gold prices. Additionally, he highlights the roles of central banks in driving demand and the challenges within the precious metals sector, including the need for technological advancements in mining operations.

Alexis Renault, Global Head of High Yield at Oddo BHF, brings his expertise in European leveraged finance to the discussion. He analyzes the results of the BI 4Q25 High Yield Investor Survey, delving into France's political gridlock and its impact on investments. Alexis expresses caution regarding Q4 returns, emphasizing risks from geopolitical tensions and earnings. He argues for a conservative portfolio approach, favoring defensive sectors like telecom and healthcare while underlining the appeal of single B ratings in today’s market.

In this engaging conversation, Chris Murphy, Co-Head of Derivative Strategy at Susquehanna, dives into the intricacies of equity volatility. He explains the significant spread between VIX and realized S&P volatility and discusses the implications of low stock correlation. The dialogue also covers the rise of single-stock volatility, upside call demand, and how macro volatility selling impacts the VIX curve. Chris's insights pave the way for better trading strategies in a complex market landscape.

Asset-backed securities issuance remains slightly behind the same period in 2024, even with Tricolor-related angst continuing, notes Bloomberg Intelligence ABS Strategist Rod Chadehumbe on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Chadehumbe and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey discuss Tricolor’s effect on the ABS market, how the consumer is driving issuance, recent trends in subprime credit-card and auto-ABS delinquencies, and his outlook for spreads. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series

Jordan Rochester, Head of FICC Strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Bank, dives into the implications of Sanae Takaichi's election on Japan's fiscal policies and the yen. He unpacks the uncertainty surrounding future cabinet appointments and how they could impact the currency market. Discussions on the relationship between fiscal expansion and yen weakness reveal intriguing debt dynamics. Additionally, Rochester explores how political pressure might influence the Bank of Japan's decisions and assesses the broader impacts on the dollar and euro amidst shifting European fiscal landscapes.

Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics and former IMF official, shares his insights on global financial stability and emerging markets. He discusses the challenges of a multipolar world, the shifting dynamics of the dollar, and alternative stores of value like gold and Bitcoin amid concerns over currency debasement. Natalucci highlights the attractiveness of emerging markets due to credible policies and real rates, while also addressing AI investment's impact on economic growth and the risks associated with frontier sovereign debt.

Meghan Swiber, Senior U.S. rates strategist at Bank of America Securities, shares her insights on the shifting landscape of U.S. rates. She explores the potential move away from the federal funds rate as the policy target and highlights BofA's hawkish outlook amidst recent economic uncertainties. Swiber also delves into Treasury issuance strategies, discussing the implications for long-term rates and the tension surrounding the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Her analysis offers a fresh perspective on how macroeconomic factors could influence future rate decisions.

Michael Nierenberg, Chairman, President, and CEO of Rithm Capital, shares insights from his extensive career in asset management. He discusses Rithm’s strategic M&A growth, including the acquisition of Paramount Group and Crestline, aimed at enhancing their credit capabilities. Nierenberg emphasizes the importance of technology and AI in mortgage operations, and the company's focus on consumer lending niches. He also explores the impact of current economic conditions on the credit cycle and how volatility can present unique investment opportunities.