FICC Focus

Jeffrey Kivitz, Chief Investment Officer at Canyon Capital Advisors, shares insights on navigating market uncertainty and seizing investment opportunities. He emphasizes the importance of breaking traditional rules in credit investing and discusses the balance of macro and micro analyses as a CIO. Kivitz also explores complex investment landscapes, including distressed markets and the role of private credit. The conversation wraps up with light-hearted lessons from tennis, linking strategy and grace under pressure to effective problem-solving in finance.

Municipal bonds scored a win in President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” passed by the House earlier this week. They didn’t lose tax-exempt status, though the bill now moves to the Senate, where it can be changed and sent back to the House for another vote. BI analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by BI tax analyst Andrew Silverman and BI policy analyst Nathan Dean to discuss the legislation. The team discusses the legislation’s impact on the tax-exempt municipal market, federal spending and the bond market’s signaling of displeasure with deficits. 

Mike Medeiros, a macro strategist at Wellington Management, dives into the intricate relationship between fiscal policy and the bond market. He reveals how the bond market acts as a disciplinarian for policymakers. The discussion touches on the recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and its ripple effects on bond auctions. Medeiros also examines the tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary strategies, as well as the unique economic challenges facing Canada compared to the U.S. A captivating analysis of how these forces shape global yield curves unfolds!

Scott Greenberg, global chair of Gibson Dunn's Business Restructuring and Reorganization Practice Group, dives into the maze of distressed debt and lender cooperation agreements. He discusses the ongoing cat-and-mouse game between sponsors and lenders, revealing how non-disclosure and anti-cooperation tricks influence negotiations. Greenberg emphasizes the importance of timing in organizing lenders and explores the cultural differences affecting lender dynamics in Europe versus the U.S. His insights shed light on what constitutes success in liability management.

Amir Fergani, Head of Credit LDI at Generali Asset Management, brings his expertise on the easing trade war and its impact on credit markets. He discusses the effects of rising government spending in Germany and the political dynamics in France, questioning if this recovery will last. The conversation shifts to inflation trends, fueled by improved US-Europe trade relations, and potential ECB rate cuts. Fergani shares insights on investment strategies favoring fixed income over equities, emphasizing selective approaches in navigating the current credit landscape.

Dan Gropper, Managing Partner and CIO of Carronade Capital Management, shares his insights on the current state of distressed debt investing. He predicts a tough economic landscape that makes corporations hesitant to invest. The podcast delves into the alarming rise in distressed bonds, particularly in the energy sector, and provides an overview of recent bankruptcy cases like Hertz, emphasizing strategic responses to market volatility. Gropper's expert perspective highlights the intricacies of navigating today's challenging investment environment.

In this engaging discussion, Andy Constan, chief investment officer of Damped Spring Advisors with nearly four decades of financial experience, shares insights on fiscal tightening, estimating cuts around $300 billion annually. He debunks common bond market myths and delves into the Fed’s balance sheet dynamics amid quantitative tightening. The conversation also highlights potential shifts in Treasury issuance and how monetary policy may affect bond yields, providing a thought-provoking analysis for those interested in macroeconomic trends.

Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 10T Holdings and 1RoundTable Partners, dives into the world of cryptocurrency volatility. He discusses Bitcoin's declining volatility as adoption rises and the role of the expanding options market. The conversation highlights strategies for managing risk amidst market fluctuations and the influence of media on investor behavior. Tapiero also projects the digital asset ecosystem could soar to a $50 trillion value in the next decade, emphasizing the transformative potential of blockchain technology.

Jeremy Stretch, Chief International Strategist at CIBC World Markets, shares his insights on Canada's economic landscape. He delves into how recent tariff reductions are expected to boost the Canadian dollar's value and discusses the implications of new political leadership on fiscal policy. Stretch predicts a more dovish stance from the Bank of Canada in 2025, which, combined with credible expansionary measures, could bolster growth. He also highlights Canada's emerging appeal in a global context driven by de-dollarization and diversification of reserves.

Eugene Grinberg, CEO and co-founder of SOLVE, discusses the transformative power of AI in the municipal bond market. He shares insights on improving transparency and market efficiency through data-driven solutions. The conversation highlights the evolution of his startup from four to 170 employees, navigating early client challenges, and investor dynamics. Grinberg also delves into how AI is reshaping pricing strategies and predictive models, enhancing decision-making with real-time data in an evolving financial landscape.