FICC Focus
Andersen’s Natalucci on Fallout in Financial Plumbing: EM Lens
Apr 9, 2025
Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics and former Deputy Director at the IMF, joins Damian Sassower to tackle the intricacies of global economic challenges. They discuss the impact of central bank policies on recession risks in the U.S. and emerging markets. Natalucci highlights the complexities of currency dynamics and the influence of structural selling on the U.S. dollar. The conversation also covers the implications of credit default swaps and the need for international cooperation in navigating frontier markets.
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Quick takeaways
- The escalating U.S. tariffs signify a significant economic shock with complex global implications, reshaping trade flows and growth dynamics.
- Emerging markets are adapting to easing monetary policies despite U.S. recession risks, highlighting the differing impacts of trade tensions on global economies.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on the Global Economy
The recent surge in tariffs is characterized as a significant economic shock, with historical comparisons drawn to past increases. These tariffs are not only large in magnitude but are expected to persist and potentially conflict with other economic objectives, such as revenue generation and manufacturing support. The interconnectedness of the global economy complicates the effects, as the past crises were often considered exogenous shocks, while this one appears to stem from deliberate policy decisions aiming to reshape international economic relations. This context is crucial for understanding how U.S. tariffs affect growth and trade flows on a global scale.
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