FICC Focus

As we edge closer to a US Federal Reserve rate decision and a presidential election, municipal credit will get more attention. In this Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano talk to Jennifer Johnston, director of research, municipal bonds, at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. She discusses how technology enhances credit research and why tax policy, slowing tax collections, falling revenues and pressured hospital margins are among areas of concern in 2H and beyond.

Join Michael Gross and Bruce Spohler, co-founders with nearly two decades in corporate lending, alongside credit analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier from Bloomberg Intelligence. They dive into innovative underwriting strategies and the unique challenges of specialty financing. The discussion covers the impact of interest rate changes, the shifting landscape of private credit, and the importance of thorough collateral assessments. Discover how proactive approaches can identify opportunities amid economic uncertainty and how regulatory measures affect the future of private credit.

James H. M. Sprayregen, Vice Chairman of Hilco Global and founder of the restructuring practice at Kirkland & Ellis, shares insights alongside Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku. They discuss the aggressive tactics corporate boards should adopt in distressed situations to maximize value. Key topics include the evolving restructuring landscape, the significant impact of recent Supreme Court rulings, and the implications of current economic challenges on distressed debt. The trio also reviews notable bankruptcy cases like Spirit Airlines and SVB Financial.

Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, teams up with Stephen Chiu, the chief Asia FX and Rates strategist, to explore the unwinding of the dollar-yen carry trade. They discuss how shifts in Fed and BOJ policies are triggering extreme FX movements. The duo also analyzes the negative dollar-yen narrative alongside potential yuan dynamics, highlighting their BEER model as a lens for understanding these fluctuations. Their insights provide a captivating look into current currency trends and future implications.

The unemployment rate will surprise the Fed, rising to 4.5% at the end of this year, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Wong joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to unpack the July FOMC meeting. The pair discuss Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish tilt at the meeting’s Q&A, and what that means for likely rate-policy outcomes. They also the examine potential implications of possible fiscal-policy changes to inflation, trade policy and real-economic activity.

With US presidential election campaigns in full swing, we thought it prudent to revisit what this year could mean for the municipal bond market in terms of heightened risks -- and even some scenarios where it would benefit. Though past election years have returned more wins than losses for munis, macroeconomic issues accompanying the election will remain a hurdle. To discuss possible threats and the latest federal income-tax developments, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Andrew Silverman and Nathan Dean from Bloomberg Intelligence.

Increased electronification and the growing prevalence of portfolio trading are creating opportunities for systematic credit, which seeks to harness the explosion of data to create models and strategies, says Paul Benson, head of systematic fixed income at Insight Investment. Benson joins BI credit strategists Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to discuss the history of the systematic approach, model dependency, excess liquidity premiums and identifying relative value. That and more in this latest episode of Credit Crunch. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Steven Major, HSBC’s global head of fixed-income research, joins Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to delve into the complexities of bond markets. They discuss the determinants of long-term interest rates and how supply influences yields. Regulatory constraints on dealer-intermediation are examined, alongside a contrarian outlook for global bonds. The conversation emphasizes the need for intellectual honesty in economic research while exploring the shifting dynamics between goods and services consumption.

Lara Rhame, the chief US economist at FS Investments, joins Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to tackle the current state of the economy. She discusses how economic resilience is shaping Federal Reserve policy decisions. The trio delves into the potential impacts of upcoming U.S. elections on Treasury markets and the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates. They also explore the implications of sustained deficits and how robust economic indicators contrast with consumer sentiment, revealing a complex landscape for investors.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matt King, Founder of Satori Insights. They discuss the impact of central bank reserves on cross-asset markets.