FICC Focus
Artisan’s Cirami Dusts Off the EM Cold War Playbook: EM Lens
Mar 4, 2025
Michael Cirami, Managing Director at Artisan Partners and expert in emerging debt markets, dives into the intricate world of geopolitical risk in fixed income. He argues that the Cold War offers valuable lessons for today’s investors. Cirami discusses distinctive investment opportunities in struggling nations, the evolving landscape of EM credit amid inflation, and India's rising fixed income appeal. He also highlights the complexities within China's economy and the potential impact of cryptocurrency on emerging markets.
31:31
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Quick takeaways
- Understanding geopolitical risks through a Cold War lens is essential for evaluating emerging-market debt investment strategies amidst complex global dynamics.
- Investment opportunities in emerging markets are increasingly driven by country-specific narratives and local reforms rather than overarching economic trends.
Deep dives
Understanding the Current Economic Cycle
The current economic cycle appears to be in the late innings, suggesting a mature phase; however, as in baseball, there is no definitive timeline and situations may extend unexpectedly. While some argue that the global economy is demonstrating signs of early recovery, there is growing consensus that we may be nearing the end of the cycle. This uncertainty makes it crucial for investors to remain cautious, recognise the potential for an extended cycle, and be prepared for sudden shifts. Additionally, the ongoing dynamics in U.S. economic policy, including potential interest rate changes, have significant implications on emerging markets, particularly in terms of how they respond to U.S. monetary moves.
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