FICC Focus

“LMEs buy time for the sponsor, but I’m increasingly seeing that that’s all it really does.” Jon Weber, founder of JFW & Co., doesn’t mince words regarding the effectiveness of the popular restructuring strategy. Liability management exercises leave executives with a “sword of Damocles” over their heads, failing to really fix anything and with an aftermath that remains a management distraction, Weber told Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel, in October’s feature interview for the State of Distressed Debt podcast. Weber shared his perspectives, honed at Icahn Enterprises, Goldman Sachs and Elliott Management, on running effective boards and companies post-reorganization (6:30). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discussed the complete dearth of distressed-debt inventory, as the distressed ratio plummeted to a 5.2% 28-month low in September. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion covering J&J’s latest Talc news, Hertz make-whole appeal, Audacy, Yellow, Tupperware, Telesat and what qualifies as a consensual release these days (59:00).This podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

In the beige book, you see all 12 districts reporting declining spending in some way shape or form, and that’s unheard of: There is no such thing, and I think that is what got the attention of the Federal Reserve, says Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for QI Research. In this edition of the Macro Matters podcast, Booth joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief North American rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss changes to the microstructure of the US Treasury market, as well as some of the largest systemic risks to financial markets. The duo also touch on potential Fed reforms and changes to bank-capital rules affecting market-making activity and liquidity in US Treasury markets.

China's recent monetary and fiscal stimulus announcements may bring near-term cyclical relief and add to the bullish case for yuan-proxy currencies like the Australian dollar and may help to contain euro downside amid underwhelming domestic news flow. Yet a longer-term, structural boost is debatable. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Dr Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman's global head of market strategy, about how the recent measures from China could shape the dollar outlook later this year and into 2025.Win and Audrey also touch on how China could affect the euro as Europe's economic news flow disappoints, plus the US economic outlook and how the US presidential election might drive the dollar view.

The corporate credit landscape could face uncertain times ahead, with upcoming elections, policy shifts and global conflicts. Andrew Beckman, Head of Global Credit at FS Investments, joins Credit Crunch’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to discuss the firm’s approach to investing across public and private markets. The conversation delves into current risk-reward levels, the credit-quality sweet spot, leveraging the broader FS infrastructure, creditor-on-creditor violence and more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Chief UK Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They discuss the BOE, economic outlook and market volatility.

Andrew Jackson, head of fixed income at Vontobel Asset Management, joins BI chief emerging market fixed income strategist Damian Sassower, to discuss portfolio positioning and market expectations after the US Federal Reserve’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut. Despite the rise in volatility, investor sentiment toward emerging-market debt remains positive, yet tail risk remains elevated as 4Q approaches. Jackson and Sassower touch on issues ranging from new issuance and secondary-market liquidity to credit quality and default protection.

SVP operates as “one big virtual global office” built on three functional “pillars” — sourcing, dealmaking and its operating partners — according to HJ Woltery, the firm’s co-head of the European investment team. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel had an in-depth feature interview with Woltery on European distressed debt. They delved into SVP’s investment approach and how the restructuring landscape varies from the US and among European countries (7:15). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel discussed August’s telecom-led credit rally and what the start of rate cuts means for the corporate credit cycle. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining the two for a roundtable discussion covering Avon, Hertz’s make-whole decision, Gol airlines, TPG, Diamond Sports, Mallinckrodt, Yellow Corp. and the proliferation of cooperation agreements (1:02:25).

The new supercore CPI to watch is the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, given US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on monthly non-farm payroll gains, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Wong is joined by Macro Matters podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss key details and takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s 50-bp rate cut and accompanying policy announcement. The pair unpack the implications of changes in the Fed’s summary of economic projections as well as the outlook for the economy relative to current market pricing. They also discuss potential implications for monetary policy in the context of the upcoming presidential election.

David Dwyer, the director of global research at Bloomberg Intelligence, dives into the transformative impact of AI on financial research. He discusses how machine learning enhances analytical workflows, making them faster and more comprehensive. Dwyer emphasizes the balance between technology and human expertise, addressing data reliability issues and the skills analysts need in this evolving landscape. The conversation also touches on the DSX project, showcasing how AI can streamline data management and improve insight discovery for investors.

The performance of the broad muni index has been positive this year, while also notably falling short of the stronger showing by its fixed-income counterparts. However, the real winners can be found in the lower-rated muni credit rungs, with the Bloomberg Muni High Yield index leading the way. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by John Loffredo, vice chairman of MacKay Shields, to discuss the changing landscape of munis and how risk-managed relative-value approaches can help uncover opportunities.