Notes on the Week Ahead

Dr. David Kelly
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25 snips
Oct 27, 2025 • 10min

Oil, Inflation and the Fed: The Slide and the Rollercoaster

This discussion dives into the recent turbulence of oil prices, likening them to a roller coaster. The conversation explores the impact of falling oil prices on inflation and the recent CPI slip below 3%. Insights include the gap between EIA forecasts and futures markets, and the reasons behind OPEC+ raising output amidst a production glut. The hosts also dissect sanctions on Russian oil and their limited effectiveness. Ultimately, they ponder how lingering low oil prices could reshape inflation and Fed policy.
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36 snips
Oct 13, 2025 • 8min

Going Broke Slowly: The Investment Implications of Still-Rising Federal Debt

David Kelly dives into the complexities of long-term investing against the backdrop of rising federal debt. He highlights the distractions investors face from political noise and offers insights on high U.S. large-cap valuations. The discussion emphasizes the significance of debt-to-GDP ratios and potential risks that could exacerbate debt growth, including recessions and policy changes. Kelly argues for diversification into alternatives and international stocks to mitigate the effects of federal debt on investment portfolios.
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32 snips
Oct 6, 2025 • 8min

The Investment Implications of the Government Shutdown

The government shutdown has surprisingly left markets unfazed, with the S&P500 reaching record highs. Rising stock valuations raise concerns about potential risks if economic fundamentals deteriorate. The shutdown is causing furloughs and potential layoffs among contract workers, disrupting essential economic data releases. Additionally, evidence of a softening economy looms, impacting growth forecasts for Q4. Investors are urged to consider diversification and risk reduction strategies during this uncertain period.
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8 snips
Sep 22, 2025 • 12min

Checking the Foundations of a Roaring Bull Market

The discussion reflects on a memorable lunch in 2009 where a bet was placed concerning market recovery. It explores the evolution from the financial crisis low to the bull market and highlights how market values have surpassed GDP growth since the mid-1980s. The conversation dives into earnings, valuation risks, potential market shocks, and provides advice on tax-efficient diversification. The final thoughts encourage a strategic shift from U.S. megacap stocks to include international equities and alternative investments.
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10 snips
Sep 15, 2025 • 8min

Truth or Consequences: The Fed’s Next Move

This discussion dives into the complexities of predicting the Federal Reserve's interest rate moves amidst inflation and unemployment pressures. Listeners learn about the cautious strategies investors should consider, as market expectations shift. The conversation also unpacks key economic indicators like GDP growth and inflation rates, highlighting the importance of adapting investment approaches in response to these forecasts and the ever-evolving political landscape.
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13 snips
Sep 8, 2025 • 9min

Rate Rescue Reality Check

Markets reacted dramatically to a disappointing jobs report, spiking initially before retreating. The discussion delves into how potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could influence consumer spending and household income. It also highlights the complexities of mortgage rates and fixed-rate debt, which can dampen the positive effects of lower rates. Additionally, the psychological effects of interest rate changes on borrowing behaviors are examined, along with the potential benefits of diversifying investments into foreign assets.
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Sep 2, 2025 • 13min

Back from the Beach: Reviewing the Investment Landscape

American summers, much more so than in the rest of the world, are defined by two bookends: Memorial Day and Labor Day. As a result, the first week in September is always a time to review and plan. This is particularly important for investors this year since, facing a barrage of unsettling political and economic news, on one side, and very solid investment returns, on the other, it’s tempting to ignore fundamentals altogether and leave investments on auto-pilot.
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Aug 25, 2025 • 11min

The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge

On August 7th, with little fanfare, the IRS announced that, as part of its phased implementation of the OBBBA, it would not be adjusting W2 or 1099 forms for the current calendar year but would provide guidance and new forms, in due course, for calendar 2026. This seemingly innocuous statement confirms that we will see in an even larger crop of personal income tax refunds early in 2026 than was anticipated when the OBBBA was passed. These higher income tax refunds should work much like a new round of stimulus checks, adding to consumer demand and inflation pressures early next year.
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Aug 18, 2025 • 10min

Why Money Doesn’t Talk Any More

Modern life is a whirlwind of distractions that obscure our understanding of the economy. The discussion highlights how today's financial landscape demands a new focus, particularly regarding the money supply. It delves into the historical shifts in monetary policy and their economic implications. There’s also a look at how innovations like electronic payments have transformed monetary transactions, significantly affecting economic forecasting. Overall, it’s a striking examination of the distractions that can lead us astray in investment strategies.
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Aug 11, 2025 • 11min

The Inflation Outlook

Get ready for a possible rise in inflation! Tariffs may send prices up, but low energy costs and declining shelter inflation could temper the heat. The dollar's weakness and labor shortages add to the inflation puzzle, while fiscal stimulus looms ahead of the mid-terms. Plus, the discussion dives into how interest rates and CPI trends might shape the economy. Investors are urged to diversify as these factors may impact asset prices.

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