Notes on the Week Ahead

Why a 1:13 expansion feels like a 1:20 recession

23 snips
Nov 17, 2025
Explore the intriguing disconnect between economic growth and personal sentiment in today's climate. The analog clock analogy highlights why expansion feels painful for many. Americans report feeling financially worse off despite positive GDP forecasts. Uneven income gains and high debt burdens create stress for certain groups. Low consumer confidence is fueled by social media and politics. Discover the implications for spending and potential fiscal stimulus as perceptions shift, and hear crucial investment strategies for navigating these turbulent times.
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ANECDOTE

Analog Habits Frame Economic Divide

  • David Kelly describes preferring analog habits like books, cursive, mental arithmetic, and analog watches.
  • He uses an analog clock analogy to explain how top and bottom income groups are moving differently in the economy.
INSIGHT

Expansion Continues Despite Mixed Signals

  • The economy is still expanding with roughly 3% annualized Q3 GDP and modest growth ahead into 2026.
  • Limited labor supply keeps unemployment low even as growth and inflation evolve toward 2% by end-2026.
INSIGHT

Wage Gains Mask Distributional Strains

  • Many groups face clear financial stress from high housing costs, student debt, and rising premiums.
  • Yet average real wages have risen for 28 consecutive months, supporting slow real consumer spending gains.
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