Notes on the Week Ahead The Importance of Navigation in the Dark
26 snips
Nov 3, 2025 The discussion kicks off with a fascinating link between the Apollo 13 mission and today's economic navigation amid missing data. Key assumptions about tariffs and growth forecasts are outlined, alongside projections of a GDP surge followed by a slowdown. Insights into labor market disruptions from the government shutdown reveal rising unemployment trends. Missing inflation data poses challenges, while future implications for market conditions and investor strategies draw attention. The conversation urges careful preparation, much like the astronauts navigating through uncertainty.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Apollo 13 Navigation Story
- David Kelly recounts watching Apollo 13 and the crew's navigation challenges after their spacecraft explosion.
- The story illustrates how navigating while instruments were off made accurate positioning vital for safe reentry.
Economic Forecasting In The Dark
- Kelly compares economists and investors to astronauts navigating in the dark during a data drought caused by the government shutdown.
- He argues diminished visibility makes accurate forecasting more important, not less.
Build Forecasts On Clear Assumptions
- Use private-sector data and clear baseline assumptions to fill gaps while official data is missing.
- Explicitly state assumptions about tariffs, immigration, global growth, and absence of shocks when forecasting.