Decouple

This week, we return to nuclear power. Specifically, nuclear construction and “learning curves.” It is intuitive that doing something over and over makes you better at it. In industry, this means driving down costs and timelines and boosting efficiencies. In many industries, the truth of learning curves is readily apparent. However, in Western nuclear construction it has been largely absent for decades. Robbie Stewart, CTO of Alva Energy, joins me to dissect why the nuclear industry struggles with what other industries take for granted, and highlight a few cases in nuclear that managed to buck this trend. From France's standardized reactor fleet to China's recent AP1000 acceleration, we explore the prerequisites for nuclear construction learning and why it takes more than just good engineering.We discuss:Wright's Law and its application (or misapplication) to nuclear constructionWhy nuclear is fundamentally different from factory-floor manufacturingThe three categories of nuclear learning: fixing mismanagement, technology insertion, and construction optimizationStatistical analysis of what drives successful learning rates in nuclear programsFrance's P4 series and South Korea's OPR-1000 as learning success storiesChina's dramatic improvements in AP1000 construction times through supply chain masteryThe critical role of integrated project management and utility ownershipPrerequisites for learning: standardized design, sequential builds, and institutional commitmentWhy inter-site learning is harder than intra-site learningThe developer model as a potential solution for geographic learning constraintsOntario's SMR program as a test case for modern nuclear learningRead extended shownotes on Substack

This week, I’m joined by Kyle Chan, author of the recent NYTimes Op-Ed titled "In the Future, China Will Be Dominant. The U.S. Will Be Irrelevant." Exploring the intense competitive pressures of Chinese “involution capitalism” and America’s fixation on shareholder returns, we discuss America’s waning relevance in global technology and manufacturing, and how critical choices made now could shape the economic and geopolitical landscape for decades.Chan is a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University, adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation, and the author of High Capacity.

This week, I’m joined by Patrick McGee, a journalist and author of Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company. I recommended this book on LinkedIn as a MUST READ, and stand by it.Apple in China is an in-depth corporate history which examines one of the most important symbioses in economic history. It explains Apple's meteoric rise in market capitalization/revenue, as well as China's newfound dominance in precision manufacturing. McGee argues convincingly that neither outcome would have happened without this relationship.To back up this extraordinary claim, McGee closely maps how Apple systematically sent top engineers from around the world to train up hundreds of factories in China, pressed for demanding specifications at “ridiculously high yield,” and invested sums directly into China that made the post-WW2 Marshall Plan look small. The result? China now leads in 57 of 64 critical technologies, as measured by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, dominating everything from smartphones to electric vehicles.As Trump threatens iPhone-specific tariffs and Tim Cook promises impossible reshoring timelines, Apple finds itself captured by the very system it helped create. Having accidentally armed its greatest competitor, there is no clear pathway for the U.S. to regain the lead it helped China take. Find transcripts, extended shownotes, and more on our Substack.

Last week, U.S. President Trump signed four executive orders to accelerate nuclear power deployment:Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National SecurityReinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial BaseOrdering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory CommissionReforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of EnergyTo help us understand the implications of these executive orders, I was joined by Thomas Hochman, director of infrastructure policy at the Foundation for American Innovation. We discuss the policy shifts needed to bridge political divides and streamline regulation as the U.S. grapples with rising energy demands driven by artificial intelligence and national security concerns. Are these executive orders enough? Is America’s nuclear resurgence is feasible, or merely rhetorical, amidst a competitive global landscape dominated by China and Russia?

Brett Christophers, an economic geographer and professor at Uppsala University, discusses the troubling shift in infrastructure ownership from public to private hands. He reveals how asset management firms like Blackstone extract wealth from crucial services with little risk, impacting our relationship with essentials like housing and energy. Christophers critiques the myths of privatization as efficient and exposes the challenges in transitioning to renewable energy, emphasizing the public's struggle against profit-driven agendas in vital sectors.

In the wake of Europe's largest blackout in decades, commodities investor Alexander Stahel helps us to understand the physics of power grids, and how Spain's celebrated renewable transition became its Achilles' heel. He introduces the “hellbrise” phenomenon—excessive, rather than too little, renewable generation—as he considers the role of grid inertia in preventing minor disruptions from cascading into failures in mere seconds. Spanish energy policy isn’t the first time that green idealism has brushed over the fundamental requirements of reliable electricity, and it is unlikely to be the last. But it has certainly provided a stark example of the dangers that await such an oversight.

This week, we cover the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula. Guillem Sanchis Ramirez, a Spanish nuclear engineer and advocate, walks us through the event that plunged over 50 million people into powerlessness and the power grid on which it happened. We cover Spain’s precarious dance with renewable energy, its political resistance to nuclear power, possible paths forward for the country’s energy supply, and our essential human reliance on stable electrical systems.Note: This interview was recorded on April 30, 2025, still in the midst of the story’s rapid development.

In this engaging conversation with Andy Knoll, a Harvard geologist and paleontologist, listeners explore how life has shaped Earth's geology and climate. Knoll discusses the lessons from past mass extinctions and underscores our urgency for action against climate change. He also examines the Great Oxygenation Event and its role in life's evolution. The talk ventures into the uniqueness of Earth in the search for extraterrestrial life and debates the challenges of Mars colonization versus Earth rehabilitation, leaving a thought-provoking perspective on our planet's future.

This week, we talk High Temperature Gas Reactors, or HTGRs, with a Decouple favorite: reactor designer and nuclear historian Nick Touran (What Is Nuclear | X). From the first conceptual sketch of an HTGR in wartime labs to today’s revival by players like X-energy and China’s fast-moving reactor fleet, we dissect what makes HTGRs unique—both in engineering promise and the difficulties that have long haunted their success. With helium cooling, TRISO fuel, and ambitions beyond electricity into process heat and industrial decarbonization, HTGRs may be poised for a comeback. But will history repeat itself, or finally break the cycle?Read longer show notes and support Decouple on Substack.

Join precision machinist Noah Rettberg on a riveting journey through the world of machine tools. He passionately discusses the evolution of metalworking, linking ancient Roman techniques to modern precision machining. Explore unrealized innovations in steam and the socio-economic factors that shaped technology. Noah also highlights how global trade and geopolitical shifts impact manufacturing capabilities, revealing the strategic responses of nations like Russia amid sanctions. It's a fascinating blend of history, craftsmanship, and the future of technology!