Decouple To Bomb or Not to Bomb
Sep 15, 2025
Alex Wellerstein, an associate professor known for his work on nuclear secrecy and creator of NukeMap, dives into the intricate history of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. He reveals how covert operations, like Israel's uranium acquisition in the 1960s, shaped current dynamics. They discuss Iran's strategic nuclear pursuits and Israel's ambiguous policies. Wellerstein also sheds light on significant events like the Vela incident and the implications of recent attacks on Iranian facilities, highlighting the uncertain future of nuclear weapons in the region.
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Sabotage Can Delay But Not Destroy Programs
- Israel has run a long campaign of sabotage, assassination, cyberattacks and bombing against Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
- Recent bombings damaged centrifuge sites but Iran reportedly moved its enriched uranium beforehand, complicating impact assessments.
Breakout Estimates Are Extremely Sensitive
- Breakout timelines depend heavily on unknowns like stockpiles and centrifuge performance, so estimates vary from weeks to years.
- Small changes in assumptions produce huge differences in predicted weaponization times.
Calculate Breakout With SWU Tools
- Run separative-work calculations with explicit assumptions rather than trusting intuition when estimating breakout.
- Use SWU calculators and vary inputs to see how timelines change under different stockpile and centrifuge performance scenarios.
