This Means War

Big contracts are being let for new aviation systems. From the B21 and FLAA in the US, to FCAS and Tempest in Europe, 6th generation air platforms are all the rage in government investment decisions at the moment. Dr Justin Bronk wonders whether these can make a difference to a much more challenging environment than has been assumed in Western capitals. The airspace over Ukraine is a deadly environment. The air defence capabilities on both sides makes flying a precarious proposition for anyone who enters the realm of mutual denied airspace. This has significant implications for everyone from force designers and military planners, to infantry companies and cartographers. If stealth, penetration, and survivability have become the key facets to air power in high intensity conflict then – according to Justin – we can do more with older platforms provided we start to buy back some of the risk that has accumulated in air forces across Europe since the peace dividend was taken.

A really capable combined arms force can have a disproportionate impact on a small war. It can have much less effect in a large one. Discussing his article on Wars in a Fishbowl, Amos Fox talks to Peter about why Battalion Tactical Groups from the Russian army have had little success in Ukraine when all their experiences over the previous two decades had told them that BTGs were the sure-fire route to success. How you learn lessons, and understanding that rarely do lessons have permanent residence across every conflict, seems to be as important as identifying them in the first place if you want to design a force with greatest utilty across conflicts. It's not just evident in how Russia learns lessons though.

Wilf Owen, a former British Army officer with a rich background in publishing and military contracting, dives into the provocative concept of the operational level of war. He challenges the necessity of this bureaucratic tier, arguing that eliminating it could streamline military operations. Owen examines how traditional theories complicate modern warfare and critiques the gap between academic insights and battlefield realities. He emphasizes the need for a direct connection between strategy and tactics, potentially making militaries leaner and more effective.

Tom Karako, Director of the Missile Defence Project and senior fellow at CSIS, dives into the escalating missile landscape. He discusses the rapid advancements in missile technologies and their significant implications for global conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and Yemen. The conversation highlights pressing needs for increased production rates and complex procurement strategies. Karako also examines the rising missile tensions from adversaries like North Korea and China, advocating for robust defense improvements in regions like Taiwan and Europe.

Peter is joined by Dr John Hemmings, a Senior Director at the Pacific Forum in Hawaii, to talk about what might have been missed in the Indo-Pacific while we have been busy watching Russia get whooped in Ukraine. It looks and feels more like a Cold War in the Pacific (between China and the USA), than simply a state of non-peace. Beyond the furious diplomatic negotiations to prevent sway states from aligning with either side, there is a darker side to China's attempts at alliance building and covert coercion happening on Pacific Islands and around the parliaments of smaller states. Building a coalition to contain China’s interpretation of their ‘manifest destiny’ may no longer be possible, but deterring Chairman Xi still might be. So, with an inability for American to fight two major campaigns on different sides of the world simultaneously before 2040, others will have to step up if they want their societies to continue to operate in a way their populations have become used to.

Peter talks to Professor Alessio Patalano about whether the naval aspects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine offer anything new to navies as lessons or tactics for the future. Given the experiences of Pacific navies with PLA(N) coercive activities in the past 20 years, the different interpretations of Maritime Security to Europeans and their counterparts elsewhere in the world have become rather stark. Indeed, even in force design terms non-European maritime forces have tended to retain a Balanced Fleet (of capabilities) whereas those in Europe have cut and divested themselves of military capabilities viewed as having no utility today. It could be a decision they come to regret.

A panel of strategic experts predicts a troubling world by 2035, marked by heightened global threats. Discussions reveal the urgent need for countries to embrace strategic ambition in defense policies. The emphasis is on fostering collaboration between the defense industry and governments to enhance security. The podcast highlights the significance of national resolve and the necessity of transparency in military discussions. It also tackles the evolving nature of deterrence in response to rising powers like Russia and China, urging proactive engagement in national security issues.

In this engaging discussion, military expert Mick Ryan analyzes the operational art behind Ukraine's resilience against Russian forces. He emphasizes the effectiveness of the Ukrainian General Staff, who adeptly combine historical insights with modern tactics. Ryan contrasts Ukraine's innovative strategies with outdated Russian command structures and highlights the significance of real-time decision-making on the battlefield. He also touches on the role of platforms like the Wavell Room in enhancing military discourse. A thought-provoking exploration of modern warfare!

Despite a shared ideology loosely based around communism, and perhaps a similarly hopeful interpretation of Mackinder’s Rimland theory, China and Russia don’t have much in common. Even their equal desire to see the USA undermined by weakening the linkages to Europe comes apart in vying for control of Central Asia. As Theresa Fallon explains to Peter, the reality of a ‘No Limits’ relationship is starting to hit home in Beijing as the invasion of Ukraine becomes a much more drawn out affair than was promised by Vladimir Putin. From rewriting history, to a death by numbers, the conversation covers elite capture and the competition for influence that each of the parties is trying to gain. Fascinating, if a little confusing!

Rob Wilson, a maritime security expert, sheds light on critical vulnerabilities in the West's naval operations. He discusses the alarming rise of sea mines and the geopolitics of the Black Sea following recent maritime incidents. The conversation dives into the possible implications of underwater sabotage on global trade and communication. Wilson also critiques current military preparedness, stressing the need for technological advancements to combat emerging threats. The potential revival of Sea Denial is a wake-up call for governments to act before catastrophe strikes.