Tom Karako, Director of the Missile Defence Project and senior fellow at CSIS, dives into the escalating missile landscape. He discusses the rapid advancements in missile technologies and their significant implications for global conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and Yemen. The conversation highlights pressing needs for increased production rates and complex procurement strategies. Karako also examines the rising missile tensions from adversaries like North Korea and China, advocating for robust defense improvements in regions like Taiwan and Europe.
The significant evolution of missile technology highlights the increasing reliance on long-range, precision-guided systems by both state and non-state actors.
Current conflicts underscore the urgent need for Western militaries to shift towards mass production of munitions to address rapid depletion of missile stocks.
Deep dives
The Changing Landscape of Missile Warfare
There has been a significant evolution in missile technology over the last decade, highlighting the shift towards long-range, precision-guided systems utilized by both state and non-state actors. The use of missiles to target civilian infrastructure, such as Russia's strikes on Ukraine, emphasizes a strategic approach aimed at eroding the will to fight among the populace. Historical comparisons are drawn to World War II tactics, suggesting that contemporary missile strikes serve similar purposes by targeting a nation’s vital resources. This shift challenges previous assumptions about the capabilities of smaller nations and non-state actors, who are now employing sophisticated missile technology in conflicts across various regions.
Lessons from Ongoing Conflicts
Current conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh, reveal important lessons regarding missile utilization and defense strategies. The overwhelming demand for effective air defenses has been underscored by President Zelensky’s urgent pleas for increased support against Russian air superiority. Recent military engagements have demonstrated that sophisticated missile technology, when paired with proper tactics, does not need to be perfect to significantly affect an opponent’s operational capability. The emergence of distributed operations, which involve utilizing assets across multiple domains to complicate enemy targeting, has emerged as a key strategy in these modern conflicts.
Production Challenges in Missile Manufacturing
The rapid depletion of missile stocks due to high usage rates in active conflicts has exposed significant issues in the production capabilities of Western militaries. Recent demands highlight the need for a cultural shift towards mass production of munitions, moving away from the 'just-in-time' mentality that has characterized the industry for decades. Current supply chain issues and the complexity of missile assembly mean that rebuilding stockpiles is not as straightforward as producing conventional ammunition. As conflicts escalate, nations like Poland are turning to multiple sources, including South Korea, to meet their urgent military needs, showcasing the critical requirement for increased production capacity in the face of modern threats.
Integrating Offensive and Defensive Strategies
The conversation about missile defense has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating offensive capabilities to effectively counter missile threats. Acknowledging that the current landscape includes a rise in sub-state actors using missile technologies, strategic responses must not only focus on defense but also on preemptive measures to neutralize these threats at their sources. The effective use of offensive capabilities in Ukraine demonstrates how utilizing advanced systems can disrupt enemy operations and secure a tactical advantage. This holistic approach creates a more nuanced understanding of modern warfare, where success relies on a combination of robust defense and proactive strikes against potential launch sites.
The use of missiles – of every variety – around the world has been increasing over the past 5 years. Whether targeting critical national critical infrastructure, economic targets, military bases and units, capital ships, or for signalling intent, missiles seem to be playing a greater role than previously (and not just in Ukraine). Peter talks to Tom Karako, Director of the Missile Defence Project and a senior fellow at CSIS, about the latest trends, lessons, policy and challenges in all things missile related. The whole thing seems to hinge on production rates – and increasing those isn’t just as easy as turning the handle. More to come on this topic in future episodes.
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