Money Tree Investing

We are joined by one of my favorite authors Charles Duhigg to discuss his new book, Supercommunicators! We also jump around to chat about other topics like the role of crypto in politics, broader technology trends and AI, and challenges in private equity. Listen to learn more about how you can be the best communicator through having a strong connection. Today we discuss...  Charles Duhigg's new book, Super Communicators, and reflects on his earlier works, The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better. Charles' background as a business journalist covering finance and technology for The New Yorker and his previous experiences at The New York Times and Harvard Business School. A recent article about Silicon Valley’s and the crypto industry's political influence. The debate over crypto regulations, contrasting the SEC's push for securities oversight with the industry's argument for recognition as commodities. Long-term changes in business and daily computing due to AI. Private equity and the impact of high interest rates, the overabundance of funds, and the potential for a reckoning in the industry. Historical trends in financial products that offered high yields, such as mortgage-backed securities, SPACs, and crypto lending. Examples of creative financial models like lending gold to jewelers and crypto lending, with an analysis of regulatory challenges and risks. Introduction to the book Supercommunicators, focusing on the skills and principles of effective communication. Explanation of the concept of "matching conversations" to foster trust and understanding in communication. Stories of individuals who overcame communication challenges to become skilled influencers, emphasizing learned rather than innate abilities. Strategies for improving communication through empathy, alignment, and intentional practice. Deep questions allow people to share personal stories, creating a shared sense of understanding and vulnerability. Authentic listening enhances trust and alignment between conversational partners, especially in emotionally charged or conflict discussions. Salespeople and professionals often falter by failing to genuinely engage, focusing instead on their own agenda. Successfully navigating conversations involves identifying their type, aligning with the speaker's mindset, and transitioning between types collaboratively. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/supercommunicators-charles-duhigg-674  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

2024 is over so we're going to share a 2024 wrap up! We explore reflections on the holiday season and its implications for financial markets. We share some touching on lighthearted holiday moments. And we also talk some broader topics such as the role of resilience in success and more! Join us as we wrap up 2024. Today we discuss...  Low trading volume during the holidays is an opportunity to find potential deals, though the speaker suggests this may not be worth pursuing for most. The annual "best year ever" planning process, focusing on setting clear, intentional goals and narrowing down focus to a single word or goal for the year. A lesson from Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, stressing the importance of pain and suffering in building resilience and character. 2025 could be a rough year, urging reflection and resilience as part of the process of preparing for the challenges ahead. The steady rise in the average age of parents at birth, which correlates with broader economic trends, including rising dual-income households. The challenges of wage growth compared to the rising costs of living, and how it's harder to keep up financially. The divergence between real wages of good-producing workers and major sector productivity. Whether job market softness is causative or correlational, with significant revisions indicating weaker-than-expected job numbers. Housing costs are rising, but 52% of newly constructed apartments in Q2 of 2024 were rented within three months, which is down significantly from 2021. The cost of buying a home is now higher compared to renting in many cases, yet new apartments are not renting out quickly. A rise in homelessness by 18% in the past year, reflecting growing social strain. Market trends, including the disparity between intraday and overnight trading, highlight inefficiencies in market timing. A nod to Bob Farrell's "10 rules for the stock market," emphasizing the cyclical nature of markets and the dominance of sentiment over fundamentals. Emotions often drive investments, and people are drawn to trends like cryptocurrency, regardless of logical fundamentals. Cryptocurrency's rise defies fundamental analysis and is driven by factors beyond traditional market metrics. Successful investing requires understanding both fundamentals and technical analysis, with the latter helping to determine optimal entry points. A trading journal can help track investments, reasons for purchasing, and exit strategies to avoid emotional decision-making. Uncertainty in the market should be managed through thoughtful strategy reviews. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/2024-wrap-up-673 Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Steve Foerster, a finance professor and investment historian, to talk his latest book, Trailblazers, Heroes and Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor. Steve shared insights into famous financial scandals, such as Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, the Bre-X gold mining fraud, and the Salad Oil Swindle that almost toppled American Express. He highlighted key lessons from these events, including the importance of skepticism, recognizing red flags, and understanding how fraudsters exploit exclusivity and credibility to deceive. These historical stories underscore timeless lessons in vigilance and sound investment practices. Today we discuss... Steve Foerster, professor of finance and investment historian, discussed his background and books, including Trailblazers, Heroes, and Crooks and his work on the biography of Nobel Laureate Bill Sharpe. The psychology of exclusivity and trust in Madoff's scheme, including his reputation as NASDAQ chairman. The Bre-X mining scandal of the 1990s, detailing fraudulent gold sample salting, conspiracy theories surrounding Mike De Guzman, and the challenges of evaluating mining investments. Mark Twain's observation on mining, "a hole in the ground with a liar on top," was used to underscore skepticism in speculative industries. The 1960s Salad Oil Swindle, focusing on Tino De Angelis' fraudulent practices and their near-collapse of American Express. Buffett's significant investment in American Express, based on its strong reputation despite the scandal, resulted in a two-and-a-half-fold return within 18 months. Research and perseverance can lead to great returns, as Wall Street tends to sell indiscriminately during tough times. Warren Buffett's support of management during a crisis helped American Express recover and solidify its reputation. The tension between short-term profits and long-term value was central to Buffett's approach, focusing on long-term growth. Hetty Green, a 19th-century investor, was a pioneering value investor who predicted market trends and became a major player in railroads and mortgages. During the Panic of 1907, Hetty Green predicted the failure of a major trust company and later lent to New York City, preventing bankruptcy. Bobby Bonilla's deferred payment contract with the New York Mets showcased the importance of understanding time value of money and opportunity cost. The story of Cristiano Ronaldo’s snubbing of Coca-Cola at a press conference led to a $4 billion market drop, but it was actually due to the stock’s ex-dividend date, not his actions. The Coca-Cola stock drop was an example of correlation not equaling causation, teaching the importance of distinguishing between the two in investing. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Jeff Hulett |  Finance Revamp Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/https://moneytreepodcast.com/trailblazers-heroes-and-crooks-stephen-foerster-672 

Today we cover a mix of festive holiday reflections and current Christmas trends. We debate the merits of artificial versus real trees, the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates, market reactions, and the potential onset of a recession, and historical cases like Puerto Rico's bond defaults, and more! It's a Merry Christmas here! Today we discuss...  How Hanukkah's alignment with Christmas is rare due to differing solar cycles and offers a unique multi-year celebration opportunity for 2024-2025. A shift from real to artificial Christmas trees, driven by mold allergies. A personal tradition of year-end reflection, dubbed "Best Year Ever," emphasizing life evaluation and goal setting over a two-week holiday break. Fed Chair Powell's interest rate cuts and their implications for markets and economic confidence were analyzed, with insights on potential recession signals like the inverted yield curve. Economic indicators, including high-yield bond performance and confidence metrics, were examined to forecast recession risks and investor sentiment. The Puerto Rican bond default served as a cautionary tale for assessing risks in high-yield portfolios, drawing parallels to current market trends. Market bullishness is fueled by a strong economy, decent earnings, and optimism about new presidential policies perceived as pro-business. Concerns were raised about tariff policies potentially replacing income tax and their inflationary implications. The market appears overvalued, with current performance exceeding economic fundamentals, risking a potential correction. Reversion to the mean was discussed as a natural market dynamic, suggesting that extreme highs or lows eventually balance out. Rising money market assets reflect cautious investor behavior, with significant cash reserves awaiting better market valuations. Inflationary pressures are linked to reduced supply and increased money supply, paralleling market dynamics. Markets need a perceived value shift to attract sidelined liquidity. Year-end is a prime time to reassess portfolios and consider tax implications. Reflect on strong market performance and evaluate whether reallocating or profit-taking is prudent. December 31st and January 1st are pivotal market dates due to tax-loss selling and portfolio rebalancing. Diversification theory, while historically valuable, may now be less effective due to increased asset correlation. Risk is the permanent loss of capital, whereas volatility is short-term price fluctuation. The current bull market may soon rival the 1990s tech boom in duration and performance, though a mean reversion is expected. High-yield bonds should be viewed more like high-dividend equities due to their risk and reward profile. Online shopping has grown but still accounts for less than 20% of total retail sales. Men and women share similar preferences for holiday gifts, favoring money, clothing, and gift cards.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/christmas-trends-671   

Blake Harris, an asset protection attorney specializing in offshore trusts, shares invaluable insights on safeguarding wealth from lawsuits and divorce. He discusses the advantages of offshore trusts over domestic options, highlighting their legality and protective power against legal claims. Blake emphasizes the Cook Islands as a prime jurisdiction for these trusts, which allow clients to maintain control while offering robust asset safety. He also addresses compliance with IRS regulations, debunking myths about offshore practices, making it clear these trusts are about protection, not evasion.

Where is the Santa Clause Rally and why isn't it here yet? What is here however, is drones! Today we talk about the current events including drone sightings and assassinations. We highlight the lack of transparency in politics, corporate media, and Wall Street - there definitely needs to be critical thinking. We also address the "Santa Claus rally" phenomenon since it could be anecdotal as it lacks consistent data. We talk bullish market trends, year-end tax-loss selling, and being mindful of market seasonality and timing. Today we discuss... High-profile events and media narratives around it. The wealth concentrated around Washington, D.C., highlighting systemic corruption. The "Santa Claus rally" phenomenon and its historical market impact. Analysis of seasonal market trends, including tax-loss harvesting and year-end buying opportunities. Observations on the rise of 401(k) millionaires, with caution about potential biases in data reporting. The Euphorometer shows that the stock market's current euphoria level is the highest in the last 30 years, warranting caution. Despite some bearish signals, the market is generally bullish with strong momentum. Foreign holdings of U.S. assets are at historic highs, signaling confidence in the U.S. economy. Job numbers are showing some signs of softness, which requires monitoring. Investors need a clear plan, whether it’s buy-and-hold or other strategies, and should stick with it through market fluctuations. Consumer bullishness is at odds with expectations for income growth, creating divergence in sentiment. The stock market’s sentiment is very strong, but investors should be cautious of potential over-optimism. The idea of having a flexible plan for market shifts, especially around year-end, is highlighted. The 60/40 portfolio model is becoming outdated as it struggles to balance volatility in bullish times. Momentum investing has its risks, as trends can change unexpectedly. The U.S. deficit is rising rapidly, with projections suggesting a $3.5 trillion deficit. Inflation-adjusted home prices are at historical highs, with housing prices showing significant growth since the late 90s. The income needed to afford a home has nearly doubled over the past decade, limiting demand. Despite challenges in the housing market, stock market expectations remain high, driven by hope rather than data. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/where-is-the-santa-clause-rally    Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Rod Griffin shares how credit impacts your daily life! As a consumer education and advocacy expert at Experian, Rod discuss the critical role of credit in financial health, particularly during the holiday season. This conversation covers best practices for managing credit and credit scores, including maintaining low credit utilization, paying bills on time, and understanding credit reports. He also talk tips to avoid holiday overspending. Today we discuss... Rod Griffin, with 27 years at Experian, shares insights into the company's diverse services beyond credit scores, including fraud prevention, identity theft recovery, and automotive history. Rod's journey from journalism to consumer advocacy at Experian, highlighting the role of information as a key driver of global economies. The importance of using credit as a financial tool during the holiday season to avoid overspending and access better financial opportunities. Rod advises on planning and budgeting, including making lists and avoiding impulse purchases, to manage holiday spending effectively. Key tips for maintaining strong credit scores include paying bills on time, keeping credit card balances low, and avoiding the myth of needing to carry a balance. Using tools like free credit reports and risk factors from credit scores to understand and improve their financial standing. How credit scores assess payment history, credit utilization, credit mix, and recent behavior to gauge risk for lenders. Consistency in financial habits—such as paying in full and maintaining low utilization—is essential for building good credit over time.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/credit-impacts-your-daily-life-rod-griffin-668   

Thanksgiving is over and now we're heading into Christmas season! Today we touch on financial planning, likening it to solving a maze by starting at the end: envisioning life goals and working backward to build a plan. We talk about the concept of a "Misogi" or a major annual goal to focus on, aligning it with strategies like bucket lists and planning retirement activities early to maximize fulfillment. Financial freedom isn't just about amassing wealth but about enabling experiences and meaningful life choices and these choices are even important during Christmas!  Today we discuss...  Time is the most valuable resource because it cannot be created or extended, unlike money. Social engagement and new activities are crucial for mental well-being, especially in retirement. Retirement follows five stages, from anticipation to reflection on health and family as priorities. Over-spending is common in the early retirement phase due to increased free time and enthusiasm. Financial planning should begin with identifying life goals and working backward to achieve them. A "bucket list" approach helps ensure meaningful experiences are prioritized early in life. Start financial planning by envisioning retirement goals and deconstructing them into actionable steps. Inflation, taxes, market volatility, longevity, liquidity, and spending are critical risks to consider in financial planning. Longevity compounds other risks like inflation, taxes, and volatility, making it crucial to plan for extended lifespans. Extending working years is another strategy, but it is subject to factors like health and employment opportunities. Spending adjustments are a common way people adapt to financial limitations, underscoring human resilience. Behavioral finance plays a significant role in managing wealth and mitigating emotional biases. Leveraging Bitcoin or other assets on a company’s balance sheet can offer growth opportunities but requires careful risk assessment. Many financial planners fail to address college and housing costs effectively, leading to unnecessary wealth loss. A long-term focus and proactive planning are essential for achieving financial and familial goals. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/thanksgiving-is-over-667    Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

John Palmer delves into his extensive career in banking, and highlights the golden opportunity that lies in small and mid-sized banks. He highlights trends like consolidation, regulatory evolution, and technological advancements. Looking ahead, he is optimistic about the banking sector’s recovery cycle and its capacity for sustained growth, even amid challenges like commercial real estate pressures and emerging fintech innovations.  Today we discuss... John Palmer shared his extensive experience in the banking industry, including his career start at KPMG and his transition to founding a banking-focused investment fund in 1996. How the banking industry has undergone massive consolidation since the 1990s driven largely by efficiency and cost-saving opportunities. Key trends like stricter regulations, higher capital requirements, improved loan underwriting, and the transformative impact of technology on banking operations. The causes of the recent crises at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic, emphasizing asset-liability mismanagement during rapid rate hikes. Blockchain technology acknowledged as a potential long-term asset for banks and skepticism about the role of cryptocurrency in traditional banking. The current banking stock cycle entering an upward phase, with profitability projected to grow steadily through 2026. Bank earnings and stock performance are rising, driven by factors like margin expansion and easing deposit costs. Banks with $1-$10 billion in assets are attractive targets for M&A due to cost savings and growth opportunities. Major banks are expanding branch networks in rural areas, targeting low-cost deposits, while smaller banks focus more on digital channels. The Midwest and Mideast regions show the most M&A activity, though the Southeast and California are also of interest. Investments focus on public banks with shareholder lists amenable to proxy support for structural changes. Banking regulation relief under a new administration could lower compliance costs and ease capital requirements. A normalized yield curve is boosting loan repricing and margins, contributing to earnings growth. Bank valuations remain attractive compared to broader markets, with banking stocks trading at significant discounts to earnings. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/golden-opportunity-john-palmer-666  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

We're in a turkey hangover but that won't stop us from diving into investing strategies. We share how, by playing to their strengths and finding external support for areas of weakness, investors can reduce risk and enhance returns. We also talk niche investment opportunities in private companies and specific sectors, such as SpaceX and Stripe appearing in mutual funds, which is why you need to stay informed about evolving markets.  Today we discuss... Kirk Chisholm reflects on a relaxing Thanksgiving filled with family time, turkey football, and setting up a backyard hockey rink. Doug Hagran shares his Thanksgiving highlights, including a successful deer hunting trip and attending a Minnesota Vikings game. Doug criticizes Ohio State's strategy after the loss against Michigan, emphasizing the failure to adapt and utilize their strengths against Michigan. How investors should align their strategies with their personal psychology and avoid imitating others, like Warren Buffett or hedge fund managers. Understanding personal strengths and weaknesses is critical for reducing risk and enhancing financial success. Using funds or managers for areas outside one's expertise can optimize returns and minimize risks. Private companies are being included in mutual funds, offering potential new investment opportunities for retail investors. Private equity investments often face challenges like high costs, illiquidity, and limited transparency. Liquidity is crucial in uncertain markets to avoid being trapped in illiquid investments during downturns. End-of-year tax-loss selling provides opportunities to buy undervalued stocks as investors offload losses. Macroeconomic factors like government cost-cutting and debt management significantly influence market trends and investment strategies. Growth stocks currently outperform due to optimism and favorable interest rate environments, but risks persist. Gold is noted for being less volatile than Bitcoin, but Bitcoin's upside has been stronger. The importance of moving on from losses, whether in elections, investing, or other domains, is underscored as a path to better decision-making. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/turkey-hangover-665   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast