Where Is The Santa Claus Rally???

Dec 18, 2024

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Where is the Santa Clause Rally and why isn't it here yet? What is here however, is drones! Today we talk about the current events including drone sightings and assassinations. We highlight the lack of transparency in politics, corporate media, and Wall Street - there definitely needs to be critical thinking. We also address the "Santa Claus rally" phenomenon since it could be anecdotal as it lacks consistent data. We talk bullish market trends, year-end tax-loss selling, and being mindful of market seasonality and timing.

Today we discuss...

High-profile events and media narratives around it.
The wealth concentrated around Washington, D.C., highlighting systemic corruption.
The "Santa Claus rally" phenomenon and its historical market impact.
Analysis of seasonal market trends, including tax-loss harvesting and year-end buying opportunities.
Observations on the rise of 401(k) millionaires, with caution about potential biases in data reporting.
The Euphorometer shows that the stock market's current euphoria level is the highest in the last 30 years, warranting caution.
Despite some bearish signals, the market is generally bullish with strong momentum.
Foreign holdings of U.S. assets are at historic highs, signaling confidence in the U.S. economy.
Job numbers are showing some signs of softness, which requires monitoring.
Investors need a clear plan, whether it’s buy-and-hold or other strategies, and should stick with it through market fluctuations.
Consumer bullishness is at odds with expectations for income growth, creating divergence in sentiment.
The stock market’s sentiment is very strong, but investors should be cautious of potential over-optimism.
The idea of having a flexible plan for market shifts, especially around year-end, is highlighted.
The 60/40 portfolio model is becoming outdated as it struggles to balance volatility in bullish times.
Momentum investing has its risks, as trends can change unexpectedly. The U.S. deficit is rising rapidly, with projections suggesting a $3.5 trillion deficit.
Inflation-adjusted home prices are at historical highs, with housing prices showing significant growth since the late 90s.
The income needed to afford a home has nearly doubled over the past decade, limiting demand.
Despite challenges in the housing market, stock market expectations remain high, driven by hope rather than data.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/where-is-the-santa-clause-rally