Money Tree Investing

Josh Radman, founder of Presidio Advisors, shares his expertise in navigating equity compensation for millennials. He breaks down RSUs, ISOs, and NSOs, emphasizing the complexities of tax implications and the importance of aligning financial goals. Josh also highlights the challenges companies face in educating employees on these options. The discussion touches on the role of AI in predicting market behavior and the need for accurate data, revealing how current government data can mislead decisions. A must-listen for anyone dealing with equity compensation!

Election season upon us so you know that there will be an irrational impact of politics that is going to hit the market this fall. We also discuss the aging of political figures like Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and the impact of stress on leaders. We explore generational cycles, particularly the "Fourth Turning" theory, and reflect on media influence and propaganda, both in the U.S. and globally. Today we discuss... The U.S. presidential candidates and the physical and mental demands of the campaign trail, especially for older politicians. They explore the concept of "fourth turning" and generational cycles of conflict, predicting ongoing societal tensions. Global perspectives on the U.S. are discussed, contrasting media portrayals and public opinions abroad How "truth" is often subjective, shaped by perspective and opinion, especially in political contexts. Both sides in a debate typically view the other as misinformed or evil, leading to a polarized environment. The upcoming election period is expected to be filled with misinformation and humor, as political discourse tends to devolve. Investment markets exhibit similar behavior, where individuals often believe they can predict outcomes, leading to misguided confidence. Historical economic events, such as the housing market in the late '90s and 2007, demonstrate patterns of irrational behavior among investors. Wall Street often presents a biased perspective, promoting buying to maintain market stability and profits. People become emotionally invested in their stocks or political affiliations, which clouds their judgment and objectivity. Discussions of gold, silver, and cryptocurrency reveal that tangible assets are often viewed as safe havens in uncertain economic climates. Emotional decision-making plays a significant role in how individuals approach investments, especially concerning real estate versus stocks. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/irrational-impact-of-politics-647

Peter Berezin, chief strategist at BCA Research, shares insights on the looming potential of a U.S. recession. He discusses how current economic conditions contradict hopes for a soft landing, with decreasing job openings and rising vacancy rates in real estate. Berezin predicts market crashes even without severe downturns and emphasizes buying opportunities in tech and healthcare during downturns. The conversation also touches on the risks facing small regional banks and the impact of governmental fiscal policies on inflation and deficits.

Corporate media is heavy on the propaganda these day! It's hard to tell what is real in the news anymore. But what we do know for sure is the Federal Reserve made a surprising decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. We talk the implications of this unexpected move. It's hard to understand the Fed's rationale so it's important to understand the data that may not be publicly available and questioning what signals the Fed is responding to. That's why you need to stay vigilant when it comes to the news and where you're getting your facts and data from.  Today we discuss...  The Fed surprised many by cutting the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.75% to 5%. Concerns arose about the sudden need for significant rate cuts, indicating potential underlying economic issues. Many speculate that the Fed possesses data not publicly available, raising concerns about hidden economic pressures. The Fed's decisions are influenced by unemployment trends more than inflation or stock market performance. Speculations linger about whether the Fed's actions could influence the upcoming election, although this is not typically their mandate. Overall, the Fed's strong statements indicate a serious concern about economic conditions, prompting scrutiny and analysis from investors and economists alike. The speaker argues that news media often functions as high-grade propaganda, which can cloud rational thinking. The rise of the internet in the 1990s disrupted traditional media by providing free access to information. People shifted from relying on traditional media outlets to independent sources like blogs and podcasts. The limitations of their data access compared to government or mainstream media. The media employs attention-grabbing tactics, such as sensationalism and loud broadcasts, to attract viewership. This reliance on dramatic presentation often overshadows the delivery of accurate information. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/heavy-on-the-propaganda-645  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Anthony Coniglio is here today to talk about how you can invest in cannabis stocks! Anthony co-founded New Lake Capital Partners, a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on the cannabis sector. Today he's here to discusses the complexities of investing in cannabis! He touches on the challenges and opportunities in the U.S. cannabis market, such as state-by-state regulations, federal restrictions, and evolving consumer preferences. There is potential for medical cannabis, but there is also need for more research to enable broader investment and growth in the industry.  Today we discuss...  Anthony's 30 years of business experience, and how it led him to co-founding New Lake. How the cannabis market has garnered attention since Canada's legalization in 2018, with various investment opportunities emerging in both U.S. and Canadian markets. Investing in cannabis can involve direct plant-touching businesses (cultivators, manufacturers, distributors) or non-plant-touching businesses (ancillary services, real estate). Medical cannabis is supported by a majority of Americans, but research is hindered by its Schedule I status, limiting evidence on its efficacy. The Schedule I to Schedule III rescheduling proposal is still pending, with a hearing scheduled for December to address comments and opposition. The cannabis industry is highly regulated, with indoor cultivation facilities focusing on optimizing THC content. Consumer preferences are shifting towards edibles and drinks rather than raw flower, indicating potential growth areas in the industry. Hemp differs from cannabis mainly in THC content, and can be used for various industrial applications, including products with higher THC through legal loopholes. The cannabis sector faces challenges due to federal regulations affecting banking and investment, impacting liquidity and institutional involvement. There is a need for policy reform to enable better banking services and research opportunities, which could normalize the industry and recognize its significant employment impact. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/invest-in-cannabis-stocks-anthony-coniglio-644  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Is Ai stealing your jobs? Today we discuss how Ai is impacting the job market and inflation. We also highlight the states where people are having a lower percentage of struggle with household expenses compared to other states. We also share possible concerns about the potential negative impacts of universal basic income and the future of work. Join us today we talk about all of this and more! Today we discuss...  Some states have lower percentages of adults struggling with household expenses compared to other states. The states with fewer adults struggling are mostly liberal, while those with higher struggles are predominantly conservative. Conservative states with high welfare dependency often criticize welfare systems despite benefiting from them. The debate over Universal Basic Income (UBI) continues, with concerns about its potential to cause inflation and economic issues. AI's impact on job markets is significant, affecting both creative and technical professions, and may lead to existential questions about purpose and employment. Social Security, Medicare, and pensions are projected to face financial shortfalls in the coming decade. Receiving steady, high pay without working can reduce stress but strain the labor economy, leading to higher job prices. Employment data has been frequently restated, revealing that many jobs are part-time or in government sectors. New regulations create more government jobs to enforce them, even though the original data was already accessible. There is concern that AI's ability to predict the future might be limited to avoid impacts on markets and other areas. Centralized platforms, like Google and social media, may manipulate information to shape opinions and influence outcomes. Building personal AI models could help avoid manipulation by large corporations and governments. For more information, visit the show notes at  https://moneytreepodcast.com/ai-stealing-your-jobs     Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Emmanuel Daniel is here today to discuss the secret future of banking! He shares his background, and how he established "The Asian Banker," a publication focused on understanding the banking and financial landscapes in Asia. He provides insights on China’s economic transformation, especially in tech and AI. He also examines the secret future of banking, and how it will impact the global scale.  Stay tuned as today we discuss...  Daniel's experiences with the banking sector across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Silicon Valley. Daniel talks about his deep connections with influential people in the U.S. financial system and his unique perspective on U.S. and Chinese policymaking. China's rise, highlighting its post-Cultural Revolution recovery, WTO accession, and economic growth driven by education and infrastructure investments. The evolving landscape of banking with the introduction of new technologies like AI, blockchain, and digital banking, and the challenges and opportunities they present. The challenges of regulating new financial technologies and the impact of digital disruption on traditional banking models. Technology is forcing institutions to adapt to greater personalization in finance, society, and governance. How young generations across the world are forming new communities and subcultures enabled by digital platforms. The challenge for governments, especially in more controlled states like China, is managing and steering this newfound individual empowerment. How India represents an untapped potential with significant structural challenges, particularly within its state apparatus and governance. Future trends will focus on leveraging AI for productivity gains, rather than being paralyzed by fear of the technology. How the US is poised to lead the world in creating a new, digitized, and financialized economy, serving as a model for others. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/secret-future-of-banking-emmanuel-daniel-642   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Historically, every time the yield curve inverts, a recession follows, but don't fret just yet, this could be correlation, not causation. Recession tends to follow when the yield curve reverts back to normal after inversion, rather than during the inversion itself. The Federal Reserve's themselves and their actions have impacted the yield curve over the year and shifts in banking behavior can slow the economy. Changes in economic conditions and market behaviors suggest a potential recession is forthcoming, but don't panic yet, you can't predict the market. Today we discuss...  The inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, which is generally considered abnormal. The Fed's recent rate hikes caused the short end of the yield curve to increase sharply, resulting in an inversion. Banks are less likely to lend during periods of an inverted yield curve because lending at a lower rate than they borrow leads to losses. Changes in how money is created may alter the predictive power of the yield curve inversion as a recession indicator. Household allocation to stocks has recently hit an all-time high, indicating extreme market complacency. Fixed income, traditionally seen as a conservative investment, became the worst-performing asset class in 2022 due to interest rate volatility. Many investors may be unaware of their true risk tolerance, having not experienced significant capital loss since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Risk in investing includes not just losing money but also the loss of time, as shown by the S&P 500's negative performance from 2000 to 2013. Confidence in the American Dream has significantly eroded since 2012, with fewer people believing hard work will lead to success. Credit card defaults are reaching record highs, surpassing previous peaks seen during the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis. U.S. government spending is projected to increase significantly, with 87% allocated to interest expenses, Social Security, and healthcare. Food prices have reached new highs, contributing to financial stress for consumers. The cost of U.S. federal debt interest has skyrocketed, reaching $1.1 trillion annually, or $3 billion per day. There is concern that the Federal Reserve is not truly independent, with its actions influenced by government, banks, and other powerful entities. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/inverted-yield-curve-641  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Andrew Stotz returns to discuss World War 2.5! Having moved from the U.S. to Thailand in 1992, Stotz has extensive experience in the Thai stock market and now runs A. Stotz Investment Research. Stotz shared his perspective on U.S. dominance in Europe, the growing tension with China, and the shift of global resources, particularly in Africa. He also highlighted the increasing complexity of international compliance regulations driven by Europe's green energy transition. Learn how all this significantly impact global markets and developing nations.  Today we discuss...  How Andrew began a career as a sell-side analyst in 1993. Andrew's 20 years in the Thai stock market and where his experiences led him. Andrew's podcast My Worst Investment Ever, focusing on lessons from financial failures. The U.S.'s dominance over Europe and the ongoing geopolitical tensions. The potential collapse of the U.S. market and dollar is a concern for investors outside America. Uncertainty about the timing and severity of the anticipated recession. The strategic economic moves of China, particularly in Africa, and its implications for global power dynamics. The discussion includes the complexities of China's role in global capitalism and its interactions with the U.S. and Europe. Europe is criticized for exporting strict compliance and regulations, particularly around green energy, impacting global trade and development. And more! For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/world-war-2-5-andrew-stotz-640   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast

The discussion dives into the Fed's upcoming interest rate decisions, weighing potential cuts against inflation risks. Inflation has dipped to 2.2%, but concerns linger with rising unemployment at 4.3%. The hosts dissect behavioral biases in investing and the importance of second-level thinking. They explore the complexities of market expectations and the ramifications of rate changes on bond investments. Strategies for passive investing amidst these shifts are also discussed, alongside the necessary understanding of current economic dynamics.