Top Traders Unplugged

Mark Rzepczynski, a guest on the podcast, dissects the macro rally and discusses the attention to CTAs, confusing survey data, and common investor questions. They also explore the concept of explanatory depth in trend following and the importance of mastering attention and speed of adjustment. The podcast wraps up with a debate on slippage as a source of alpha in trend following.

Dario Perkins, an economist, discusses the misdiagnosis of the global economy in 2023. They explore the shift higher in inflation, active industrial policy, and changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. These shifts point to greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, and a more positive outlook for value versus growth.

Alan Dunne, expert in trend following and macro issues, discusses pressing global macro issues, trend following research, Ray Dalio's view on the US-China war, and the benefits of trend following. The podcast also covers Blackstone boosting leverage in a credit fund and the risks and benefits of adding leverage to investment positions.

Maia Mathieson and Faheem Osman from Macquarie Bank discuss the sustainability of Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) and their commodity-focused strategies like curve carry and congestion. They explain how their rules-based indices can efficiently access risk premium strategies. The podcast also covers the creation of robust indices, the advantages of machine learning and alternative data, collaboration across asset classes, and the potential of non-standard commodity markets. Additionally, they explore the accessibility of onshore China commodities in indices.

Katy Kaminski, expert in changing economic environment and trend followers profitability, discusses the driver of changing economic environment, the impact of interest rates on trend followers, the need for a repricing in long term yields, the role of the yield curve in trend followers profitability, and her outlook for the markets.

Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Edward on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis29:08 - Will AI save us?32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?41:40 - The baby boom generation - inflationary or deflationary?44:06 - China and Japan being deflationary?45:23 - Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?47:50 - The outlook for equities52:14 - The U.S vs the rest53:32 - Advice for new investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Cem Karsan returns to discuss tail hedging and the possibility of a new bear market. They explore the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, the importance of thinking differently in asset allocation, and the volatility compression mechanism during the holiday season. The podcast also touches on trend following performance, the link between global conflicts and inflation, and the significance of specific dates in the market.

In this podcast, Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, talks about the fascinating world of commodity spreads. Topics include calendar spreads, cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads. Mauritz also shares a firsthand account of Polarstar's position in US versus European grain spreads during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The podcast explores the complexities and strategies behind commodity trading.

The podcast discusses the changing investment landscape in Australia, the differences between absolute and cross-sectional momentum, the use of trend following systems and the importance of diversification. It also touches on topics such as the performance of indices, the reasons behind the rising trend of orange juice prices, and the importance of understanding different investment philosophies.

Matt Smith, Investment Director at Ruffer, joins the podcast to discuss global markets, asset allocation, and the current macro landscape. He shares why Ruffer is defensively positioned, expresses skepticism about the AI rally in stocks, and identifies opportunities in the market. Matt also talks about the secular outlook for inflation, the parallels between the current environment and the past, and recommends two influential books for investors.