GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan

23 snips

Jan 17, 2024

Guest

Cem Karsan

Guest

Dave Dredge

Renowned risk management experts Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan discuss the current market climate and the importance of long volatility and owning convexity in investment views. They also tackle the consequences of government debt and the challenges faced by central banks. The speakers explore the risks of unwinding non-recourse leverage and delve into the potential impact of expanding volatility in areas like FX and equity. A must-listen for investors looking for insights into the year ahead.

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Introduction

00:00 • 2min

Reflections and Concerns on the Current Market Climate

02:23 • 12min

Importance of Long Volatility and Compounded Returns in Investment Views

14:17 • 16min

The Consequences of Government Debt

30:31 • 8min

The Current Economic Situation and Debt Levels

38:31 • 33min

Unwinding Non-Recourse Leverage and the Complex Risks Involved

01:11:07 • 8min

Exploring the Impact of Expanding Volatility and Relationship Between Interest Rate Vol and Equity Vol

01:19:28 • 3min

Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation

07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?

14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity

24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?

31:35 - A system under pressure

38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?

42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?

53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?

01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin

01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility selling

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