SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan

Jan 6, 2024

Cem Karsan, financial analyst, discusses the outlook for the economy in 2024 and the potential for stagflation. Topics include the true driver of the economy, moving towards stagflation, changing understanding of normal, U.S. election impact, and the need for crises.

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Introduction

00:00 • 3min

December Jobs Report, Trend Reversal, CTA Performance, and Spike in Sulfur

02:37 • 6min

Discussion on Treasury default, shifting balance, and uncertainty

08:29 • 2min

Trends and Their Impact on the Market

10:47 • 6min

Investor Viewpoint on Interest Rates and Inflation Environment

16:53 • 18min

The Path to Normalcy

34:23 • 29min

Closing Remarks and Call to Action

01:03:50 • 2min

Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:02 - Industry performance update

06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?

11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?

16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?

24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation

27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?

32:19 - Under the hood of inflation

34:23 - What is normal?

39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world

46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?

49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective

53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball

59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David Dredge

01:03:58 - Thanks for listening

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