SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged
December Jobs Report, Trend Reversal, CTA Performance, and Spike in Sulfur
Discussion on the contradicting December jobs report, trend reversals in stocks and bonds, and the impact of the Fed's pivot on currency markets and trend following strategies.
Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:02 - Industry performance update
06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?
11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?
16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?
24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation
27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?
32:19 - Under the hood of inflation
34:23 - What is normal?
39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world
46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?
49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective
53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball
59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David Dredge
01:03:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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