Top Traders Unplugged

Richard Brennan, an expert in complex adaptive systems and their application to financial markets, discusses avoiding overfitting, the concept of complex adaptive systems, the differences and limitations of trend following strategies, and the shortcomings of traditional statistics in analyzing these systems.

David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan, shares insights on the US economy, bond yields, and asset allocation. He discusses the absence of a recession in the US and identifies factors protecting the economy. Kelly also explores the changing role of bonds, the rise of industrial policy, and retirement spending patterns.

Andrew Beer, expert in asset management and replication strategies, discusses the struggles of managed futures in 2023 and the changing landscape of the asset management industry. Topics include the history of replication strategies, disruptions in the industry, the comeback of the 60/40 portfolio, and challenges faced by trend following strategies.

Anant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substitution arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades in detail, including sizing and portfolio implementation, and focus on the tail exposures which could materialize while the trade is active. This is a detailed and somewhat technical episode and a must-listen for anyone interested in commodities arbitrage trading.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Anant on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Anant Jatia06:39 - Anant's experience from working at AQR08:46 - How did Anant's firm evolve over time?10:44 - How difficult is High-Frequency Trading?14:33 - What is their current trading strategy?17:07 - An example of one of their trades21:17 - Staying away from the physical side23:33 - Tracking the market and executing trades27:18 - Managing the cost of trades29:58 - How did they get through the Covid19 period?34:37 - How many markets are they trading?36:49 - The process of trading copper38:43 - How do you obtain transportation costs?40:47 - Achieving the optimal trading efficiency43:37 - A multi-legged trading strategy47:34 - Anant's perspective on the Natural Gas markets50:50 - Putting it all together54:39 - Building for negative tail events57:26 - What kind of exposure do they have?59:17 - Key takeaways59:58 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Mark Rzepczynski, a guest on the podcast, dissects the macro rally and discusses the attention to CTAs, confusing survey data, and common investor questions. They also explore the concept of explanatory depth in trend following and the importance of mastering attention and speed of adjustment. The podcast wraps up with a debate on slippage as a source of alpha in trend following.

Dario Perkins, an economist, discusses the misdiagnosis of the global economy in 2023. They explore the shift higher in inflation, active industrial policy, and changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. These shifts point to greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, and a more positive outlook for value versus growth.

Alan Dunne, expert in trend following and macro issues, discusses pressing global macro issues, trend following research, Ray Dalio's view on the US-China war, and the benefits of trend following. The podcast also covers Blackstone boosting leverage in a credit fund and the risks and benefits of adding leverage to investment positions.

Maia Mathieson and Faheem Osman from Macquarie Bank discuss the sustainability of Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) and their commodity-focused strategies like curve carry and congestion. They explain how their rules-based indices can efficiently access risk premium strategies. The podcast also covers the creation of robust indices, the advantages of machine learning and alternative data, collaboration across asset classes, and the potential of non-standard commodity markets. Additionally, they explore the accessibility of onshore China commodities in indices.

Katy Kaminski, expert in changing economic environment and trend followers profitability, discusses the driver of changing economic environment, the impact of interest rates on trend followers, the need for a repricing in long term yields, the role of the yield curve in trend followers profitability, and her outlook for the markets.

Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Edward on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis29:08 - Will AI save us?32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?41:40 - The baby boom generation - inflationary or deflationary?44:06 - China and Japan being deflationary?45:23 - Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?47:50 - The outlook for equities52:14 - The U.S vs the rest53:32 - Advice for new investorsCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer