Top Traders Unplugged

Cem Karsan returns to discuss tail hedging and the possibility of a new bear market. They explore the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, the importance of thinking differently in asset allocation, and the volatility compression mechanism during the holiday season. The podcast also touches on trend following performance, the link between global conflicts and inflation, and the significance of specific dates in the market.

In this podcast, Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, talks about the fascinating world of commodity spreads. Topics include calendar spreads, cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads. Mauritz also shares a firsthand account of Polarstar's position in US versus European grain spreads during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The podcast explores the complexities and strategies behind commodity trading.

The podcast discusses the changing investment landscape in Australia, the differences between absolute and cross-sectional momentum, the use of trend following systems and the importance of diversification. It also touches on topics such as the performance of indices, the reasons behind the rising trend of orange juice prices, and the importance of understanding different investment philosophies.

Matt Smith, Investment Director at Ruffer, joins the podcast to discuss global markets, asset allocation, and the current macro landscape. He shares why Ruffer is defensively positioned, expresses skepticism about the AI rally in stocks, and identifies opportunities in the market. Matt also talks about the secular outlook for inflation, the parallels between the current environment and the past, and recommends two influential books for investors.

Rob Carver, an expert in trading strategies, discusses trend following and mean reversion strategies, the benefits of faster trend following, and avoiding over-fitting when constructing trading strategies. They also explore the performance of a diversified program versus a more concentrated one and the correlation between trend trading and equities.

Top Traders Unplugged brings in Larry Hancock, an expert in nuclear technology and alleged correlation between UAP encounters and nukes. They discuss the correlation between UAP encounters and nuclear physics breakthroughs, the lack of evidence for UFOs, theories on UAP crash retrievals and reverse engineering programs, the UAP Disclosure Act, understanding the complexity of UAPs, and the call to action for investigating unidentified intelligence.

Nick Baltas, expert in non-trend strategies, discusses the rationale for carry risk premia, the implementation of carry alongside trend following, and the construction of reversion strategies. The podcast also explores the impact of higher bond yields on investment strategies and the concept of a 'sea change' in the investing environment.

Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, discusses asset allocation in a higher yield environment, highlighting the shift from 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation. He explores opportunities in real estate, private equity, and alternatives. The podcast also touches on institutional investor allocation trends and the impact of AI on markets.

Andrew Beer discusses the challenges investors face in timing managed futures allocations and the evolution of the managed futures industry. They also explore the growing appetite for trend following, the commoditisation in managed futures, and the impact of attractiveness on hedge fund managers' success.

Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann discusses the importance of capital allocation in a dynamic global environment. The speakers delve into the breakdown of relationships between stocks and bonds, explore the predictive nature of the business cycle, and highlight the impact of structured products on equity volatility. They also discuss the difficulties of owning bonds in the trend following world and the use of machine learning in asset allocation.