Brussels Sprouts

Next week, on June 24th and 25th, NATO will hold its annual summit in the Hague. In the run-up to the event, expectations are low among allies. The ultimate goal is to navigate the Summit without major incident and walk away with unity still intact. At the top of the agenda is the historic new pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defense. However, not everything is in agreement going into Tuesday, with varying perspectives on Russia, and Allies anxiously awaiting the outcome of the U.S. posture review to see how a downsized U.S. presence in Europe takes shape.  To discuss expectations and potential outcomes for the NATO Summit, we’re pleased to welcome Julianne Smith and Camille Grand to the podcast.  Julianne Smith is the president of Clarion Strategies and the former U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO  Camille Grand is a Distinguished Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and the former Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investment at NATO 

China has remained a persistent—and increasingly complex—challenge. With looming discussions of tariffs and strategic decoupling from the U.S., European leaders are watching closely: How will Washington’s China policy evolve, and what does that mean for Europe’s strategic posture toward Beijing?  We’re very pleased to welcome Liz Economy and Noah Barkin to help unpack the evolving transatlantic dynamics on China.  Liz Economy is a Principal with WestExec Advisors and a Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.  Noah Barkin is a Senior Advisor with Rhodium Group’s China Practice and a Visiting Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund 

The relationship between the United States and Europe is facing unprecedented challenges. While the Russian threat to Europe continues to spark fears of a broader conflict, NATO is simultaneously grappling with the implications of a United States that is less committed to European security. To discuss how Europe is reacting to the Trump administration and more, Andrea Kendall-Taylor hosted leading diplomats for a special session at the CNAS 2025 National Security Conference Bogdan Klich, Head of Mission, Embassy of the Republic of Poland The Rt Hon Lord Peter Mandelson, UK Ambassador to the U.S. Jovita Neliupsiene, Ambassador, European Union to the United States Watch the session and more at conference.cnas.org

Please join the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS’s Annual Conference: America’s Edge, on June 3rd!  Analysis from the Economist in February this year shows that far-  right parties are now Europe’s most popular family of political parties by   vote share – overtaking conservative and social-democratic parties for the   first time in modern European history.   To help us understand the roots and repercussions of this movement, we’re pleased to welcome Sheri Berman and Richard Youngs.  Sheri Berman is a professor of political science at Barnard College.  Richard Youngs is a senior fellow in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at Carnegie Europe 

Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul this week – the first since March 2022 – have got off to a shaky start. Putin’s no-show meant President Zelenskyy remained in Ankara on Thursday, but he plans to send a delegation to Istanbul led by his Defense Minister. Russia’s unwillingness to send a more senior delegation suggests they are not taking the talks seriously, and there are few signs they have dropped their maximalist war demands and would be ready to make a settlement with Ukraine that ensures a sustainable peace. With their efforts so far having failed to yield significant results, President Trump has expressed his frustration with both Kyiv and Moscow and personally urged Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy to meet directly.   To discuss this round of talks and the prospects for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, we’re very pleased to have Sam Charap and Sergey Radchenko with us on the podcast.     Sam Charap is distinguished chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy and a senior political scientist at RAND.   Sergey Radchenko is the Wilson E. Schmidt distinguished professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. 

In highly anticipated federal elections on April 28th, Canada’s Liberal Party emerged victorious after staging a major comeback in the polls over the past several months. This comeback victory took place against the backdrop of rising tensions between Canada and the United States, with the Trump administration’s combative stance toward its northern neighbor having played a role in boosting the popularity of the Liberals. Prime Minister Mark Carney, in his first week, has taken a firm stand against Trump, asserting earlier this week at the White House that Canada was “not for sale.”   To discuss Canada's new political era, Kim Richard Nossal and Elizabeth Anderson analyze the election results and implications for Canadian foreign policy.  Kim Richard Nossal is a professor emeritus in the Department of Political Studies at Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario, and the author of Canada Alone.  Elizabeth Anderson is a Fulbright Scholar and Visiting Associate Fellow in CNAS’s Transatlantic Security Program, as well as a former senior advisor in the office of Canada’s Foreign Minister. 

There’s been a flurry of activity on the Ukraine front this week. Over the weekend, Donald Trump briefly met with Zelensky in Rome during ceremonies for Pope Francis’ funeral. A deal over mineral rights seems imminent, and President Trump rebuked Vladimir Putin, accusing him of leading him along as Russian strikes on Ukraine continue. However, uncertainty over the future of the U.S. and Ukraine continues, especially over whether the U.S. will push Ukraine to accept maximalist Russian demands. This week, Charles Kupchan and Eric Ciaramella join Brussels Sprouts to discuss the status of negotiations over Ukraine and the future of the U.S.–Russia relationship. Charles Kupchan is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University.  Eric Ciaramella is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  

On April 9th, Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union, secured a coalition agreement with the Social Democrats following his party’s victory in the federal elections. In early May, the Bundestag is expected to convene and elect him as the next Chancellor. One of the most significant initiatives of this new government is likely to be a historic overhaul of Germany’s defense posture.   To discuss this and more, we’re pleased to welcome Claudia Major and Christian Mölling to discuss Germany's new government and defense strategy.  Claudia Major is the Senior Vice President of Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund Christian Mölling is a Senior Advisor at the European Policy Centre  

Celeste Wallander, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, delves into the critical dynamics of U.S. support for Ukraine. She discusses how fluctuating American aid during the Trump administration reshaped perceptions in Europe. The conversation touches on the complexities of military planning, interagency collaboration, and the evolution of nuclear deterrence amid rising tensions. Wallander emphasizes the importance of adaptable strategies and European involvement in bolstering Ukraine's defense against ongoing threats.

Dan Mullaney, former U.S. trade representative for Europe, and Tobias Gehrke, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, dive into the impact of President Trump's tariffs on transatlantic trade. They explore Europe's potential retaliatory strategies and its significant economic leverage in tech legislation. The discussion highlights the complexities of trade wars, the need for constructive dialogue, and how current policies may reshape global economic dynamics. Listeners gain insights into navigating trade tensions amidst geopolitical challenges.