Brussels Sprouts LIVE: Transatlantic Turbulence and the Future Role of the U.S. in European Security
Feb 21, 2025
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Emma Ashford, a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center specializing in U.S. foreign policy, and Stephen Wertheim, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment focusing on foreign policy history, dive deep into the changing landscape of U.S.-European relations. They discuss the seismic shifts in U.S. security commitments post-Trump's comments, the complex dynamics of U.S.-Ukraine relations, and the implications of a possible Trump presidency on foreign aid. Their insights remind us of the intricacies of navigating these tense geopolitical waters.
The Trump administration's shift in policy towards Europe raises serious concerns about the future of NATO and European security commitments.
Intensified pressure for European nations to enhance their defense capabilities reflects a broader shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities under the current administration.
The complexities surrounding U.S.-Russia relations could alter geopolitical dynamics, demanding careful management to avoid emboldening adversarial influences in Europe.
Deep dives
The Shift in U.S.-Russia Relations
The recent efforts by the Trump administration to normalize relations with Russia mark a significant departure from past policies, particularly following the Ukraine invasion. This includes a recalibration of U.S. support for Ukraine, which is now characterized by critical remarks towards President Zelensky and discussions of major concessions ahead of negotiations. The U.S.’s new approach raises concerns about its commitment to European security, casting doubt on the future focus on NATO allies and potentially withdrawing troops from Eastern Europe. These developments have left European allies apprehensive and uncertain about their own security as the U.S. shifts its priorities.
Europe’s Defense Dilemma
For decades, the U.S. has urged European nations to bolster their defense capabilities, and under the Trump administration, this pressure has intensified. The administration has employed a 'bad cop' strategy, signaling that if Europe does not take responsibility for its own defense, the U.S. may withdraw support. This shift could have serious implications for European security given the historical context of U.S. involvement in ensuring stability in the region. The discussions around increasing European defense spending could be viewed as both necessary and a direct response to the diminished U.S. commitment to the continent.
The Role of Diplomacy with Russia
The recent meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia has sparked debate about the effectiveness and rationale behind engaging with Russia without a unified stance from Ukraine and European allies. Experts noted that although engaging Russia in discussions may set the groundwork for dialogue, the lack of clear conditions and a coordinated position might undermine Ukraine's negotiating power. This meeting reflects a shift towards recognizing Russia's position while downplaying the importance of direct discussions about the war in Ukraine. Ultimately, the effectiveness of this diplomatic approach remains uncertain as concerns grow over the implications for Ukraine's future in the conflict.
Zelensky's Position and U.S. Support
The deteriorating relationship between the Trump administration and Ukrainian President Zelensky raises questions about the feasibility of peace negotiations without Ukrainian buy-in. Analysts suggest that Zelensky's firm stance against concessions could limit U.S. efforts to bring about a resolution to the conflict. If the U.S. were to walk away from negotiations, it might embolden Russia, leading to greater territorial gains and pressuring Ukraine into a less favorable position. This dynamic highlights the complexity of balancing U.S. interests with Zelensky's resistance, which could ultimately impact the credibility of the administration and its foreign policy.
The Implications of U.S.-Russian Relations
The potential for an evolving U.S.-Russia relationship raises concerns over how this might affect broader geopolitical dynamics, particularly regarding alliances with China and Iran. Some experts speculate that improved relations with Russia could lead to reduced reliance on these states, possibly weakening their collective influence. This perspective suggests that a successful U.S. diplomatic engagement with Russia, if managed carefully, could lead to new alignments and reduce tensions derived from perceived threat landscapes. However, this approach could also provoke backlash in Europe, where leaders fear diminished U.S. support could embolden Russian aggression in their region.
In Munich and Brussels last week, the Trump administration signaled a seismic shift in U.S. policy toward its European allies. Since World War II, the United States has been the primary security guarantor of Europe. Yet recent remarks from President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have questioned this status quo.
This week, Brussels Sprouts hosted a special live edition of the podcast, discussing what happens next in the U.S.-Europe relationship with Emma Ashford, senior fellow in the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, and Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Stephen Wertheim is a Senior Fellow with the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on the history of U.S. foreign policy and contemporary American strategy and diplomacy.
Emma Ashford is a Senior Fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center. Her research focuses on U.S. foreign policy, international security, and global energy markets.
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