As we welcome the new year, Brussels Sprouts is zooming out for a big picture view of what to expect in 2025. Top of mind is the impact of a second Trump presidency on U.S. foreign policy, as many worldwide grapple with tough questions about the future of Washington’s global leadership. Ukraine also faces a pivotal year in its war with Russia, as speculation about potential negotiations continues to increase despite the lack of a clear path to ending the conflict. Finally, 2025 is likely to see new tests of transatlantic cohesion, as Europe navigates uncertainty amid shifting U.S. priorities. To help us unpack all of this and other key issues shaping global geopolitics this year, Daniel Kurtz-Phelan and Benedikt Franke join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.   Daniel Kurtz-Phelan is Editor of Foreign Affairs and holds the Peter G. Peterson Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations.   Benedikt Franke is Vice-Chairman and CEO of the Munich Security Conference.  

Asli Aydintasbas, a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution specializing in Turkish and European politics, and Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali focusing on European foreign policy, delve into Syria's recent political shift. They discuss the collapse of the al-Assad regime and the implications for regional stability. Topics include the rising opposition forces backed by Turkey, Europe's shifting foreign policy priorities amidst Ukraine, and the urgent need for a coherent strategy to address reconstruction and geopolitical tensions.

Earlier this week, France’s government collapsed following a successful no-confidence vote from left-wing and far-right lawmakers. This political crisis comes on the heels of the collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition several weeks ago, leaving both of the European Union’s largest member states rudderless at a time when the bloc faces major challenges. Simultaneously, the EU is preparing for Donald Trump’s return to the White House next month and the possible consequences for the future of the war in Ukraine and threats to impose new tariffs. Finally, a brand-new European Commission has just taken office, only adding to all this uncertainty. To help us make sense of what we should expect in the months to come, Tara Varma and Liana Fix join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.    Tara Varma is a visiting fellow with the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution.    Liana Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations.   

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, and Robert Lee from the Foreign Policy Research Institute delve into the complexities of the Ukraine war. They discuss the precarious situation on the frontlines, contrasting manpower and winter challenges. The implications of potential U.S. military support changes under a Trump administration are examined, along with Ukraine's bold statements about nuclear capabilities. The guests highlight the crucial role of foreign aid and the hurdles Europe faces in supplying help amid a shifting battlefield.

Max Bergmann, Director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS, shares insights on how a potential second Trump term could reshape Europe’s security landscape. The conversation covers Europe's shift towards military self-reliance and the impacts this could have on NATO unity. Bergmann discusses the complexities of U.S.-Russia relations, challenges facing Ukraine, and how the U.S. political climate influences European stability. The need for a cohesive European strategy in the face of geopolitical threats is emphasized.

Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared objectives. A new report from CNAS analyzes how the relationship is shaping the region. Read it here: Russia and China in Central Asia: Cooperate, Compete, or De-conflict? Most importantly, Russia and China seek to keep the United States, the West, and democracy out of the region, maintain stability, and pursue economic benefits. Though fissures exist, thus far the two countries have kept tensions from derailing the broader Russia-China relationship in Central Asia. To discuss these issues and more, Reid Standish and Alex Cooley join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.  Reid Standish is an Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty correspondent in Prague and author of the China In Eurasia briefing.    Alex Cooley is the Claire Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University and an Academy Adjunct Faculty member at Chatham House.  

Since the war in Ukraine began, the European Union has provided substantial military support to Kyiv. Yet years of underinvestment and a lack of coordination mean that Europe’s defense industrial base has struggled to keep up with demand. While there is a renewed sense of urgency to tackle this issue, in September, NATO’s outgoing secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg warned against EU defense efforts duplicating or competing with NATO, given scarce funding and personnel. What is the role of the EU when it comes to defense issues? Does the EU have a role in supporting the development of the defense industrial base? And how can EU and NATO efforts to support Ukraine be mutually supporting rather than cut across each other? To discuss these questions and more, Benedikta von Seherr-Thoss and Max Bergmann join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on Brussels Sprouts.    Dr Benedikta von Seherr-Thoss is the Managing Director for Peace, Security and Defence at the European External Action Service.   Max Bergmann is the director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and the Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).  

This past Tuesday, Russia hosted a high-profile summit of the BRICS group in Kazan, Russia, demonstrating its growing determination to challenge the Western-led international order. As the group has expanded its membership during the past year, it has grown to encompass nearly half of the world’s population, lending it greater credibility as a platform for reflecting an increasingly multipolar world. Yet despite this expansion, the BRICS group continues to face internal divisions. Looking ahead, how should we interpret the evolving role of the BRICS, and what does this evolution mean for policymakers in the United States and Europe? To unpack all of this and more, Alexander Gabuev joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Kate Johnston on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.     Alexander Gabuev is the Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.  His research is focused on Russian foreign policy with particular focus on the impact of the war in Ukraine and the Sino-Russia relationship.  

As the 2024 presidential elections draw nearer, it’s becoming increasingly urgent to understand the potential implications for U.S. foreign policy. This week, Brussels Sprouts continues its two-part series focusing on the election by shifting focus to the foreign policy that could emerge under a Trump-Vance administration. To discuss all of this, Michael Allen and James Carafano join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Kate Johnston on this week’s episode. Michael Allen is a managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, where he specializes in national security and foreign policy. James Carafano is Senior Counselor to the President and E.W. Richardson Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, where he works on national security and foreign policy challenges. 

NATO marked its 75th anniversary this year – a testament to the strength and continued relevance of the alliance. Celebrations have been muted however, due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and increasing concerns from Europe about US commitments to transatlantic security. The role of NATO is as crucial now as it was 75 years ago but the security threats the alliance faces are evolving, and growing in complexity.    To discuss these issues Ambassador Anniken Huitfeldt, Mark Newton, Maria Markowska, and John Deni joined Rebecca Moore for a live episode of Brussels Sprouts at Concordia College in Moorhead, Minnesota.   Ambassador Anniken Huitfeldt is the Norwegian Ambassador to the USA and was previously the Norwegian Foreign Minister from 2021 to 2023.   Mark Newton is Minister Defence (Director USA) at the British Embassy in Washington DC.   Maria Markowska is the First Counselor and Head of the Political Section at the Polish Embassy in Washington DC.   Dr John Deni is a Research Professor of Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute  Dr Rebecca Moore is a professor of Political Science at Concordia College.