Brussels Sprouts

The Trump administration made a major move this week in its announcement of sanctions on major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Luke Oil, along with 31 subsidiaries. This follows President Donald Trump’s cancellation of a discussed meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest and a U.S. agreement to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets deeper inside Russia. Some have suggested that European leaders are feeling some satisfaction that their repeated interventions with Trump on behalf of Ukraine have finally produced American pressure on Moscow. This week on Brussels Sprouts, how can Europe navigate escalating Russian attacks on Ukraine and hybrid threats from Moscow while keeping the United States on side? To discuss this and more, the Center for a New American Security is very pleased to welcome Daniela Schwarzer and Natalie Tocci to Brussels Sprouts. Daniela Schwarzer is a board member of the Bertelsmann Stiftung and one of Germany's leading experts on European and international politics and economics and the development of democracy and the rule of law. Nathalie Tocci is the Director of the Italian Institute of International Affairs and a Professor of Practice at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

In this insightful discussion, guests Eric Ciaramella, Nate Reynolds, and Pete Schroeder, all former deputy national intelligence officers for Russia and Eurasia, dive into the complexities of Russia's dual narratives amid its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. They explore Russia's hybrid tactics, the implications of recent military actions in Europe, and the strategic calculations behind Putin's agenda. The conversation includes analysis of potential escalations with NATO and the enduring impact of Western sanctions on Russia's economy.

On the surface, great power competition often seems driven by economic and military conflict, but diplomacy has always been central to great powers' engagement with the world. This is the argument made by Dr. Wess Mitchell in his forthcoming book, Great Power Diplomacy, The Skill of Statecraft from Attila the Hun to Kissinger. Covering 15 centuries of history, the book makes a powerful case that diplomacy is an essential tool of great power politics and leaders ignore diplomatic skill at their own peril. With the press of current events and especially the rise of cooperation across the Axis of Upheaval, the book is more relevant than ever. We are very delighted to welcome the book's author, Wess Mitchell, to Brussels Sprouts. A. Wess Mitchell is a scholar of international relations, a principal at the Marathon Initiative, and he served as the United States Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia from 2017 to 2019.

On September 28th, Moldovan voters went to the polls in parliamentary elections to choose between competing visions for their country's future. Despite intense efforts by the Kremlin to influence the information space, wage cyber attacks on election infrastructure, and even make bomb threats at diaspora polling places in Europe, the pro-EU party of action and solidarity clinched just over 50 % of the vote, defeating the pro-Russia patriotic electoral bloc's 24%. The pro-EU party will command a parliamentary majority without needing to form a coalition government. This, coupled with pro-EU President Maya Sandu's victory in last year's presidential election, maintains Moldova's path towards the EU. But persistent challenges remain. Economic growth remains sluggish, poverty remains high, and the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria remains a challenge from Moldova's EU accession hopes. To help us understand and decode the election results and what they mean for Moldova and the future of Russian influence in its periphery, we are very happy to welcome Bill Hill and Laura Thornton to the podcast. William Hill is a retired Foreign Service Officer, was previously a fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, and is the former two-time head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova. Laura Thornton is the senior director for global democracy programs at the McCain Institute.

This discussion features Stacy Pettyjohn, a leading expert on defense and drone threats from CNAS, and Michael Kofman, a seasoned analyst at the Carnegie Endowment. They dive into Russia's recent airspace violations and the implications for NATO. The guests explore the asymmetrical costs of drone warfare, the need for improved counter-drone capabilities, and insights from Ukraine's defense tactics. They also assess Russia's motives and the escalating risks, while highlighting the importance of NATO's readiness against these emerging threats.

General (Ret.) Philip Breedlove and Admiral (Ret.) James Foggo, both seasoned military leaders with extensive NATO experience, delve into the rising threats posed by Russia. They discuss how current policy gaps have emboldened Putin and outline the pressing need for NATO to bolster deterrence measures, like enhanced air defenses and decisive public messaging. They highlight critical capability gaps in NATO's defenses and emphasize the importance of political readiness and strategic investment to counter Russia's nuclear coercion and aggressive tactics.

In the early hours of September 10th, Polish authorities detected 19 Russian drones over Polish airspace. This incident represents a major escalation, with Poland triggering Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. At a minimum, this was an attempt by Russia to get European nations to back down from their support for Ukraine and to expose the Alliance as a paper tiger. The attack also provided the Kremlin with key insights into Poland and NATO's air defenses and its chain of response. So how do we understand what happened and what needs to happen? To answer those very hard questions, we're very fortunate to have Doug Lute and Kurt Volker with us. Ambassador (Ret.) Douglas Lute served as the United States Ambassador to NATO from 2013–2017. Ambassador (Ret.) Kurt Volker served as the United States Ambassador to NATO from 2008–2009 and as the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017–2019.

This week, we continue our assessment of the Trump-Putin and Trump-Zelensky meetings in August. European leaders can take solace in the fact that their presence at the Washington meeting means that their views are not being entirely ignored, but significant outstanding questions remain relating to how the discussions of western security guarantees for Ukraine could materialize. Now that any appearance of momentum from the meetings has petered out, we take stock of European leaders’ takeaways from the Washington meeting and where Europe goes from here in its efforts to support Ukraine. To share their views on the future of the European security order, we are very happy to welcome Shashank Joshi and Janis Kluge. Shashank Joshi is the Defense Editor at The Economist  Janis Kluge is Senior Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, Germany

The past week has seen a flurry of diplomacy from President Trump as he seeks to bring about a negotiated solution to Russia’s war on Ukraine. While activity has been undeniably high, what fruit has all this effort borne? Sam Charap and Angela Stent join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help make sense of a whirlwind few days and the implications for the future of Ukraine and the transatlantic relationship writ large. Samuel Charap is Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy and a senior political scientist at RAND. Angela Stent is Professor Emerita of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

One of the most transformative geopolitical developments in recent years has been the increasing alignment among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.  Accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the deepening economic, military, and technological ties among these four countries have resulted in a new Axis of Upheaval—united by shared opposition to a U.S.-led global order. On July 30, CNAS hosted a virtual panel discussing the new report, The Axis of Upheaval: Gauging the Growing Military Cooperation Among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. The panel featured: Richard Fontaine, chief executive officer at CNAS Andrea Kendall-Taylor, senior fellow and director of the transatlantic security program at CNAS Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The event was moderated by David McKenzie, director of communications at CNAS Read the report! https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/the-axis-of-upheaval