Can Europe Fight Back with Shashank Joshi and Camille Grand
Mar 7, 2025
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Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor at The Economist, and Camille Grand, a Distinguished Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, discuss the mounting tensions in transatlantic relations and its effect on European security. They highlight Europe's unprecedented defense spending surge in response to U.S. military aid suspensions to Ukraine. The guests delve into NATO's evolving role amid geopolitical challenges, underscoring the necessity for a cohesive European strategy to counter Russian aggression and secure stability in the region.
The suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine has triggered unprecedented defense spending increases among European allies, reflecting newfound insecurity about American reliability.
European nations are beginning to modernize their militaries to enhance self-reliance, recognizing the potential need to operate without U.S. support during crises.
Discussions on security guarantees for Ukraine reveal a critical need for European countries to develop structured approaches to future territorial defense amidst growing Russian aggression.
Deep dives
Decline of Transatlantic Relations
Transatlantic relations are experiencing significant deterioration, particularly highlighted by the suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence to Ukraine. The Trump administration's controversial interactions, including a problematic meeting with President Zelensky, have raised concerns among European allies about America's reliability as a partner. As a result, European countries are compelled to drastically increase their defense spending, with Germany and the EU mobilizing unprecedented financial resources for rearmament. This shift represents a critical response to the uncertainty regarding U.S. commitment to European security amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The Future of NATO and European Security
A profound tension exists regarding NATO's future and how the U.S. plans to engage with European security moving forward. There is a clear divide in perspectives on the handling of the Ukraine situation, with differing opinions on the conditions of peace and support for Ukraine. As European nations grapple with the need for a cohesive security strategy, there is a growing call for them to take charge of their conventional defense while adapting to a potential decrease in U.S. oversight. This reflects a shift in dynamics, as allies must prepare for a reality where they may no longer depend on the U.S. for military backing.
The Risks of American Detachment from Europe
A looming concern is the possibility of an American administration that actively undermines European security and supports adversarial policies towards Ukraine. The apprehension among European leaders, particularly regarding Trump's approach towards Russia, raises fears of a fragmented and vulnerable Europe. This could pave the way for a challenging environment where Russia may exploit divisions and continue aggressive actions. As trust in U.S. intentions dwindles, European nations face a critical juncture to reassess their defense strategies and strengthen their own military capabilities.
Evolving European Defense Capabilities
In response to the geopolitical upheaval, there is momentum within Europe to enhance defense spending and foster greater military self-reliance. Several European nations are beginning to modernize their military capabilities, which will enable them to be less dependent on U.S. support during crises. Source countries like the UK and France are exploring new technologies and collaborative defense strategies to fortify their deterrent capabilities. This evolution represents a significant shift in the European defense landscape, highlighting a collective commitment to safeguarding their security interests independently of U.S. influence.
The Need for Security Guarantees in Ukraine
Discussions surrounding security guarantees for Ukraine reveal an urgent need for European countries to outline a clear, structured approach. While the prospect of a dedicated European force in Ukraine could help stabilize the situation, there are unresolved questions regarding the level of U.S. support required as a backstop against potential Russian aggression. European leaders must carefully consider how to balance their defense commitments while maintaining a robust deterrent posture. The outcome of these discussions will significantly impact Ukraine's long-term security and its ability to achieve a stable peace in the region.
This week, the Trump administration announced the suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence to Ukraine. Reports have emerged that Trump administration officials have held secret discussions with some of Zelensky's political opponents. On Thursday, Trump told reporters he would consider only defending those allies who spend enough on defense. These events, along with everything that has transpired since U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth gave his speech to NATO in February, have catalyzed an unprecedented European response as allies are no longer confident that the US will remain a reliable partner moving forward. Allies are ramping up their defense spending; in an emergency meeting in Brussels yesterday, the EU agreed to rearm Europe by mobilizing 800 billion euros in defense spending. This jump in spending is unprecedented for the EU, with 2024 spending hitting a previous record high of 326 billion to rearm. We're very pleased to have Shashank Joshi and Camille Grand on Brussels Sprouts to discuss what all this means.
Shashank Joshi is the Economist’s Defense Editor.
Camille Grand is a Distinguished Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
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